"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Monday, December 17, 2012

SPX - Still downward but the outlook worsens

The weekend is an important time to analyze the market without the stress of trading and the passing of prices.
After many failed attempts to break to the upside, the market reversed to the downside.
Looking at the daily chart, Wednesday there was a shooting star on a cycle's peak and the top could be of minor degree, so in the short-term, the trend remains bearish.
Analyzing the intraday chart (3 minutes), the structure of the bearish movement seemed to be a impulsive until half sitting, then the failure to bounce brings me to consider a double zig-zag with the waves [w] and [x] finished and the [y] in progress, but the strong oversold in the oscillators suggests a rebound, so the alternative scenario (wave [w] is bottoming)  has a similar odds.
The pattern is not clear and the risk is too high; it's better to wait for clarification.
Have a great trading day...with care!


Charts : Daily - 60 min - 15 min - 3 min


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