"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)


Saturday, December 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis and the K.I.S.S. principle

We do an exercise.
Take a chart and we apply the Elliott Wave Theory, initially in its basic version.


Take the downward move from TOP to BOTTOM indicated by the red arrow.
It's an impulsive sequence or a corrective sequence?
If it were an impulse wave, we would see 5 waves, where:
) wave 2 can not exceed the peak originated from whence wave 1;
2 °) wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the impulse wave;
3 °) wave 4 can not rally above the bottom of wave 1.
None of the above rules is met then the downward move is NOT an impulsive wave but a corrective wave.

Now it might be that the downward move has definitively corrected the previous bullish movement ended in TOP; it would be possible because the BOTTOM is at 0.618 Fibonacci's retracement.
But if so, it means that the bullish move from BOTTOM to the Top , indicated by the green arrow, should be an impulsive wave; 
to count this sequence in 5 must try a lot, none of the three rules is violated but the guideline of the right look is not satisfied.

Instead, by observing the movement from BOTTOM to A 


we can be seen quite clearly that the movement is in 5 waves (yellow arrows) ,
that the movement from A to B is clearly in 3 waves (red arrows)


and also the movement from B to Top is in 3 waves (light blue arrows)



What does that mean?

It means that:
> the main trend is not clearly bearish; if it were, the downward move from TOP to BOTTOM would be a sequence in 5 waves to form a wave 1 or a wave A of a zig-zag; certainly can be a complex corrective, but in this case we can strive as we want but it is impossible to predict which variant is being developed.

> the upward movement from BOTTOM to Top is not an impulsive wave, perhaps it can be only a part of it, but it is not complete.

Conclusions.


) Too often we strive with obscure and unlikely counts.
We have to keep things simple,
because if we are faced with a corrective wave that starts in 3, especially if it is sideways, we can only wait for the breakout or the breakdown.
2°)  there are some Elliott Wave analysts that they charge up to $ 100 per month to be told that the downward move from TOP to BOTTOM is an impulse wave, and that the upward move from BOTTOM to Top is another impulsive.
Which books have studied I do not know.


Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

PS:
this post is clearly a provocation, things are not so simple, but too often we make them overly complicated.
It is also useful to tell myself that after 18 years that I use Elliott Wave Principle, I lose too many time doing useless counts, instead of playing with my children, take a walk with my dog​​, or talking with my friends.

THESE ARE THE REAL THINGS.   ;-)


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