"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)
Themarket reboundwas made according tothe expectationsoutlinedin the previous 15 minutes chart, that is: (preferredcount): after thebottom ofwavea/win the form of[w]-[x]-[y] , is startedthe reboundon the wave b/xwhich should developsas athreewave pattern; the first alternative scenariohas changed andconsidersthe hypothesisthat the firstwavea/w of minute degree is not yet completeand that the market isdeveloping the secondAlt:[x] of acomplex pattern. For traders and investors who investin stocks or ETF,I still don't seeopportunities with low-risk for openlong positions.
Thebreak-downof 1495confirms the prospected scenario a few days ago: Febraury 19began a bearish correctivewave. Withthe reboundto78.6%Fibonacci's retracement,Idiscardedthe idea thatwe were in azig-zag pattern [a]-[b]-[c] , soin order of priority, the first two possibilities are: >Athree, single or double, [w]-[x]-[y] + [x]-[z](preferredcount); in this case we could be in [y] wave, even if the downward acceleration of final session doesn't convince me; >Abearishimpulsewave----(first alternatecount),that involvesadeepcorrection(and eventhe hypothesis thatFebruary 19isthetopof thetops). I stay outside.
Inthe last tradingsession, SPXstarted apullbackthatdoesn't appears yetcompleted. Mypreferredscenario considersasidewayscorrection in progress,althoughthere is still noconfirmationthatFebruary 19is abearishreversal; itwould bethebreak-down of 1495 level.
Thenewmaincountderives froman increaseof one degreeof the waves; we could be in c/y wave of [b]/[x] , while the alternate count is bullish (Alt:3)
In this condition of uncertainty, I still prefer to stayout of the market.
the correctionhas founda first supporton the 23.6% Fibonacci'sretracement,butthedownwardpatterndoes not seemfinished. Preferredcount (bearish): we are inthe wave2/bof[a]of a/w (early stage of a correctivepattern of minor degree); Firstalternatecount (bullish): the wave Alt:2infinishedand nowstartsthe waveAlt:3 of Alt:of Alt: c Secondalternatecount (bearish), we are inwave 2°Alt:[b] of a/w Forother considerations and the hourly chart, referring toyesterday's post. Have a great trading day...with care!!!
Yesterday's sessionchangesthe outlookandhas strongbearishimplications. There is a highprobability that themarket has reachedatopof minordegreeeven if thepatternthat it would closethebullishwaveis not clear,because it doesn't seemsan endingdiagonal, but for exclusionseems to methe most likely scenario (with more than one doubt...). Theconfirmation of the beginningofa corrective phasewould occur withthebreak-downof1495, but the index could alsoenter intoa sideways correctionrespectingthis support. Now, considering that mypreferred scenariohas been invalidatedby the drop below1514, it's necessary a recount. The newpreferredscenario considers atop ofminutedegree, and the beginning of a newwavexthat, for theprinciple of alternation, should be a "sideways type correction". Inthis market situation, the best strategy could be to closelong positions andstand outside.
Alsothe last tradingsessionwascontrasted. Preferredcount:itis finishedthe wave2 of ; Alternatecount:themarkethasreachedatop ofminutedegree (Alt: c) Always greatcaution,wearen'ttoofar from a Cycletop and the volatility islikely to increase.
Nothing happened , only an extension of the sideways move.
But now I think that wave 2 is over and the market could be ready for the upthrust, otherwise the index falls.
My preferred short-term view is that posted yesterday (SPX hourly chart): still bullish.
Although we arealwaysinahigh-risk area, SPX seemsready foranotherupward thrust. New preferred scenario: the trianglewave is finished,and startedwave1 of  Firstalternatecount:we are alreadyinwaveAlt:3 of 
Yesterdaynothing happened; the indexseems readyto continuethe uptrend with a bullish breakout in theearly stageof session, otherwise itfallsdown.
Preferred count (up): we are in wave 3 of  ; Alternate count (sideways) : wave  is in progress like a triangle
pattern. 2°Alternate count (down): wave 2°Alt: is ending and so 2°Alt:c .
Preferred count (up): wave  , like expanded flat, is over; now we are in wave 1 of  ; today starts wave 2
1 Alternate count (down): wave Alt: is ending and so Alt:c .
2 Alternate count (sideways) : wave  is in progress like a triangle pattern.
Friday, witha strongbullish move, the old alternate count has definitelysurpassed the previous preferred count, that's was invalidated. Now, the newmainscenario always includes awaveyof minordegreein progress,butit takes thestructure of anupwardzig-zaga-b-c ,where wavecisin wave .
However, anissue deservesattention:thisintermediatewave (z)in progresscouldnotbe asimple complex w-x-ybut adouble complexw-x-y-x-z, so the topscould bereached aftera pullback inwavex .
NDX isthe weakestof theU.S. stock market indexes (also due to the Apple's collapse), the others are very closeto theirtops (andRUThas alreadyexceeded them).
Long-term view. Preferredscenario: NDXhas not yet reachedthetopof thisCycleBearMarketrally (wave B) that could be in3300-3400areawhere there is a newFibonaccipricecluster. Firstalternatescenario: the tophas occuredSeptember 21, 2012 at 2878, where these was the first Fibonacci price cluster.
Preferred count: NDX is in wave [iii] of 1 of 5
First alternate count: we are in Alt:b/x of wave 4
The preferred scenario, after being weakenedby the Wednesday's move, was denied from that of yesterday.
The newpreferred scenarioconsiders that occured, on January 30, thetopof wavey ,and nowwe arein the wave[a]/[w]of the second wavexof adoublezig-zag w-x-y-x-z . This count would be confirmedby an interesting Fibonacci time cluster at thetop of thewavey(which unfortunatelyI have only seentoday)between100%(bottomwavex- bottomwavex) =redvertical line (dashed)and261,8% (top wave w- bottomwavex) =whiteverticalline (dashed).
Another confirmation is required, with the lack ofnew highswithin a few days.
Thenewfirstalternatescenario:we are inAlt: of Alt:c Possibletargets:in1487-1486 area thereis thefirstFibonaccipricecluster,thesecond is in1481-1480 area.
The firstalternatecountcould also endtodayclose to1492 (but this is a hypothesiswith low probability).
However, the main trend remain bullish so, even if a top may have occured, I don't open short position on stocks (may be in intraday ES trading).