"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Friday, September 28, 2012

SPX - The bottom expected has been achieved

I'm actually considering that the bottom of wave x was made Wednesday, as truncated or impulsive; looking at the chart at the right distance,  we can see how the index reacted a few points from Fibonacci price cluster and about two hours from the Fibonacci time cluster; these errors are very small and negligible.
If so, it would begin the final wave z of double zigzag of minor degree wave y.
Unfortunately, these considerations are of little importance now since I closed almost all long positions and rebuild the portfolio now becomes more difficult.

Have a great trading day...with care!

Thursday, September 27, 2012

SPX - Impending trend reversal, otherwise the scenario worsens

Bad day, I am confused; rather than clarify the pattern has become more difficult to decode.
The most plausible interpretation is that it is a complex (see "substitution of pattern" by Robert Balan) where w is a complex wave, x wave a triangle , and y wave an impulse , but the wave 4 of y wave seems too big, in terms of time, compared to the wave 2 , so it doesn't seem respected the guideline of the "right look".
If the market doesn't stop in the next support area (1428-1426) or in the last (1416-1413), corrective wave began on Sept. 14 becomes a wave of minor degree.
In situations like this, as my trading approach is not a reversal approach, I'm out and expect to see more clearly.
In two days I closed all my long positions (except GWW) because the stops are triggered, so my risk, now, is very low...but if a new uptrend starts, I have to rebuild all my stock portfolio!
Have a great trading day...with care!

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

SPX - Hunting of "x" bottom requires caution

As expected, the market has declined; the hypothesis of triangle in wave x was correct.
Now the first 2 scenarios that I expect for the end of the x wave are as follows:
- Preferred scenario: the index reached the first Fibonacci price cluster in 1435-1434 area in mid-session today at the yellow vertical where there is a micro Fibonacci time clusters;
- First alternate count: the index falls again until 1428-1426 area where there is a second Fibonacci price cluster.
Below, it is necessary change the count.
The bad news is the pattern; the suspected downwave y started yesterday seems to have an  impulse structure, which is not possible in a complex pattern, and this element deserves careful!
Have a great trading day ... with care!!!

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

SPX - Congestion continues, and still lacks the "x" bottom

The sideways pattern continues, and there is the possibility of a triangle in wave x.
It seems that still lacks the bottom of minute degree (x wave) (see targets in the last post).
Have a great trading day...with care!

Monday, September 24, 2012

SPX - Trend still downward , immediately or shortly

I could be counter trend, but I think the bottom of  x wave has not yet been reached;
first target 1446-1444, and second target  1428-1426.
However, if it were valid the first alternate count, a climb up to the highest can not be excluded.
Now it requires patience and prudence.
Have a great trading day...with care!!!

Friday, September 21, 2012

SPX - The bottom of minute degree has occured?

Yesterday, the bearish move in opening session brought the index to just 5 points from the black area of yellow rectangle, that's a Fibonacci price and time clusters (see last post).
According to my preferred scenario (60% probability), SPX did not appear yet reached a bottom corresponding to a pivotal point of minute degree (x wave) , because the pattern's structure doesn't seem complete, while the alternate scenario (40% probability) already indicates the reversal and the start of a new minor upwave.
I wait to open long positions.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Thursday, September 20, 2012

SPX - Waiting for a bottom of minute degree

By now the trend continues following the outline of the preferred scenario;
between today and tomorrow I'm waiting for a bottom of minute degree (x wave) in the black area inside the yellow rectangle (see chart 2 and last post).
At this point it need to focus on the pattern's structure that will be difficult to decrypt because it seems a complex.
Have a great trading day ... with care!

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

SPX - Correction doesn't seem complete

No changes to the scenario pointed out yesterday; correction continues.
The  assumed count would be confirmed if the bearish move ended, at least, in the black area of the yellow rectangle (chart 2), at the crossing of Fibonacci price and time clusters (1446-1426 / 20-21 September).
Have a great trading day...with care!

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

SPX - Focus on Fibonacci to confirm a complex corrective count.

The count begins to be difficult and analysis of price and time with the Fibonacci ratios becomes very useful.
I keep thinking that the wave began on June 4 is corrective because there are too many "overlapping swings" and no evidence of harmonious and balanced impulse.
The problem is to correctly identify the pivotal point for each complex corrective pattern, locate the right position of the waves, and the right degree (however, this last point for me is always a secondary trouble because the original implications about the trend are the same).
According to Fibonacci price analisys, an important pivotal point seems to be the bottom of 2 August, as the three waves: first up w (a-b-c from August 2 to August 21), second down x (triangle from 21 August to 4 or 5 September) three up y (a-b-c from 4 or 5 September to 14 September), are in Fibonacci relationships : x = 0.382 * w , plus y is close to [(1 * w) + x ] and meet the guideline of "the right look".
That is why I updated my preferred count, which remains, however, a complex Zig-Zag pattern type wzy or wxyxz.
Instead, regarding the Fibonacci time analisys, I see that the first wave w of minor degree has the same duration of the second wave x (time w = time x) and that the first wave w of the current wave y is equal to w and to x (time w = time x = time w) and this is either a coincidence (but I don't bilieve that), or the current wave y is an elongated complex pattern, or my preferred count is wrong.
I continue to investigate.
I don't think that the bearish correction is completed, and in any case, it's a risky point to open a trade.
Have a great trading day...with care!


Saturday, September 15, 2012

SPX - Correction of minuette or subminuette degree in progress

My preferred count, and the first alternate, favor the hypothesis that the uptrend will continue after a short correction of minuette or subminuette degree already underway.
However, the SPX has a residual rising area rather small, close to 6-7% from record highs, while the DJIA and NASDAQ have a greater potential upside.
Therefore, great care, this is a high-risk area, in Italy we say "the game isn't worth the candle", that  is the benefits of opening a long position of intermediate / long term are, now, lower than cost.
Have a great weekend....and a good trading Monday...with care!!!

Il mio conteggio preferito, e il primo alternativo, privilegiano l'ipotesi che il rialzo proseguirà, dopo una breve correzione, già iniziata, di grado minuette o subminuette
Tuttavia, l'SPX ha uno spazio di salita residuo piuttosto piccolo, vicino al 6-7% dai massimi storici , mentre il DJIA e il NASDAQ hanno un potenziale di rialzo maggiore.
Perciò, molta cautela, questa è una zona ad alto rischio, in Italia si dice "il gioco non vale la candela", cioè i benefici dell'apertura, ora, di una posizione long di medio/lungo termine, sono forse inferiori dei costi.

Buon weekend ...e un lunedì di trading prudente!!!

Friday, September 14, 2012

SPX - Uptrend until proven otherwise

Yesterday a powerful and very fast impulsive wave, even with strong volume.
At this point there seems to be no significant resistance to the tops but it is clear that is difficult to continue to rise at this rate.
I hold my long positions on stocks and GLD.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Ieri veloce e potente onda impulsiva, anche con forti volumi.
A questo punto non sembra esserci nessuna resistenza significativa ai massimi ma è chiaro che è difficile continuare con un rialzo a questi tassi di accelerazione.
Mantengo le mie posizioni lunghe sulle azioni e su GLD.
Buon trading...e prudenza!

Thursday, September 13, 2012

SPX - Bullish breakout in the hands of FED

Similar situation to yesterday, same count, same trading strategy,...the market seems to expect an announcement of FED regarding some form of QE3.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Situazione simile a ieri, stesso conteggio, stessa strategia operativa.
Il mercato sembra aspettarsi un annuncio della FED per una qualche forma di QE3.
Buon trading... e prudenza!

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

SPX - Close to a long setup

The pattern created by the top of 10 September seems to be about to end today but:
> if it is a flat, having retraced less than 38.2%  the previous wave, could be a wave 2 only if the 3 is extended (chart 1)
> if it is a three is more likely to be a wave b (or if it is a triangle is impossible a wave 2),
....... or should be made an alternative count in which the upwave from 6 to 10 September is not a wave 1 /a but a wave 3 (chart 2)
However, I could be close to a potential setup to open a long position.
Have a great trading day...with care!

(chart 1)
(chart 2; alternative counting if hte wave in progress is a three or a triangle)

Il pattern che si è venuto a formare dal massimo del 10 settembre sembra essere vicino al termine già oggi, ma:
> se fosse un flat, avendo ritracciato meno del 38.2% dell'onda precedente, potrebbe essere una onda 2 solo se la 3 è estesa (chart 1)
> se fosse un three è più probabile che sia una onda b (o se fosse un triangolo è impossibile che sia un'onda 2),.....oppure dovrebbe essere fatto un conteggio alternativo nel quale il rialzo tral 6 al 10 settembre non è una onda 1/a ma una onda 3 (chart 2)
Comunque sia, potrei essere vicino a un potenziale setup per aprire una posizione long.
Buon trading...e prudenza!


Tuesday, September 11, 2012

SPX - Corrective wave in progress.

Yesterday the wave 1 / a (Alt: a / w) is over, and started the wave 2 / b bearish.
It would be important for the strength of the trend, which did not end below 1426, however, the count can be valid up to 1401.
 I consider only long position on a balanced pullback or on the breakout of a possible flat base.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Ieri l'onda 1/a (Alt: a/w) è finita, ed è iniziata l'onda 2/b ribassista. Sarebbe importante, per la forza del trend, che non terminasse sotto a 1426; comunque il conteggio può essere valido fino a 1401.
Valuto se aprire long solo su un pullback equilibrato oppure sul breakout di una eventuale flat base.

Buon trading... e prudenza!

Friday, September 7, 2012

SPX - New bullish corrective wave

The market breaks up so starts a new bullish corrective wave.
Now it is difficult to identify a target.
I will work at sight , only intraday long positions on dips or on flat base breakout.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Il mercato ha rotto al rialzo così è iniziata una nuova onda correttiva rialzista.
Per ora è difficile individuare un obiettivo.
Opererò a vista, solo con piccole posizioni long intraday sugli storni o sulle rotture di congestioni laterali.
Buon trading...e prudenza!

Thursday, September 6, 2012

SPX - Very close to breakout or breakdown

 MarketWatch —... The next six trading days are full of what traders call “event risk”... That could break currencies and other markets out of their narrow trading ranges. It will be a week to make money — or to lose it. Here’s what’s on tap:
  • Thursday, Sept. 6: Mario Draghi’s press conference. ...                                  
  • Friday, Sept. 7: U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. ...                                  
  • Wednesday, Sept. 12: German constitutional court ruling. ....
  • Wednesday, Sept. 12: Dutch elections. ...                                  
  • Wednesday, Sept. 12: European bank regulations proposal. ...                                  
  • Thursday, Sept. 13: FOMC’s two-day meeting concludes. ...                                  
Stay alert. This could be an interesting week.

I totally agree with MarketWatch.               
Thursday, or in the next days , the market will breakout or breakdown from this trading range and stocks will move higher or lower, maybe even heavily.
In the chart I see a triangle; if it breaks up, x wave (or Alt:x) is already complete, while if it breaks down, lacks y wave (or Alt:y) to complete x wave (or Alt:x)

Have a great trading day...with care!!!

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

SPX - Bottoming?

Nothing new compared to yesterday. Last bearish wave y of x?
Have a great trading day...with care!

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

US Stocks update - Good WAC and CAB

...WAC makes an excellent breakout (+ 12% from my first buy signal; + 10% from the second) with very good volume (+ 300% on MA50d)...

...more on US Stocks page...

Monday, September 3, 2012

SPX - Seems to be a temporary stop

A cross between a Fibonacci retracement 38.2% and the down channel line of the bullish trendline has so far stopped the bearish movement.
The pattern does not seem complete, the x wave could be in progress like a triangle; I think it lacks the third bearish wave y
Next target where there are 2 Fibonacci price clusters: in 1390 area and, if the market breaks down, in 1365 area.
Have a great trading day...with care!

l'incrocio tra un Fibonacci retracement 38.2% e la parallela della trendline rialzista ha per ora fermato il movimento ribassista.
Il pattern non mi sembra completato, l'onda
x potrebbe ancora essere in corso ed essere un triangolo; penso che manchi la terza onda ribassista y
Prossimi obiettivi si trovano in corrispondenza dei 2 Fibonacci price clusters:  in area 1390 e, se il mercato non tiene, in area 1365.

Buon trading...e prudenza!