"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Monday, October 29, 2012

SPX - Still a bounce in a bearish scenario

The bounce of wave [b] does not seem finished but the last wave is very difficult to interpret.
As alternate scenario, a wave [c] diagonal triangle that involves the end of the x wave (but this is unlikely).
Unfortunately I am not able to identify good Fibonacci price and / or time cluster and that does not help counts.
Have a great trading day...with care!


Saturday, October 27, 2012

Intermarket Analysis: DAX and EURUSD

Also the German Battleship seems at the end of the bull cycle, perhaps a last bullish attack at the tops (8000-8150) and then it's likely a dip.
Only myAlternate count (2°Alt:) is bullish as long-term view.


Preferred count: temporary sideways pattern, then a new bullish wave up at least to 1.35

Have a great weekend!

Friday, October 26, 2012

SPX - Downtrend with bounces

The index is in a congestion phase (the pattern is not yet decipherable, maybe an irregular, a triangle or a complex) but does not seem to have reached its bearish target.
According to my preferred scenario, SPX is in [b] wave of z wave, and there is at least one other downward movement, even if it is likely a bounce.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

SPX - Dangerous situation or great opportunity

The yesterday's low drilled that of October 12 so it's necessary a new count.
Visually, the SPX chart shows a sideways pattern well alligned which generally has potential bullish.
The real problem is the Elliott wave counting, because the last bullish wave and the last bearish look like two five wave patterns and this would only be possible if the first impulse is the final wave of a flat and the second impulse is the initial wave of a zig-zag or a downward impulse.
Or one of the two impulse counts is wrong.
The situation is very uncertain, the market could offer a wonderful buy opportunity or hide a bear trap or could be near a cliff.
Too much risk, I'm out and look.
Have a great trading day...with care!!!


Saturday, October 20, 2012


SPX - Short term outlook

Yesterday bad trading day.
My preferred scenario shows signs of cracking: the down move on Friday could be an impulse wave not yet complete, the confirmation is another decline on Monday.
In this case also my first alternative scenario (a doulble three wxyxz) could be wrong and could start a market collapse that requires a new count.
The situation is dangerous, so carefully.
SPX hourly chart
SPX 10 m chart
GOLD - Intermediate outlook

Correction continues.
My preferred scenario looks at zig-zag pattern
I'm waiting for a pullback (b minor wave) and then another bearish wave.

Have a great weekend!


Friday, October 19, 2012

SPX - Correction continues

Yesterday began the expected pullback that should lead the index at least in 1445-1450 zone, where there are the Fibonacci price retracements 50% and 62.8%.
So the correction continues.
Have a great trading day...with care!


Thursday, October 18, 2012

SPX - Confirmed uptrend with incoming correction

The market trend confirms the bullish scenarios presented yesterday.
The structure looks like a  complete 5 Elliott wave pattern [1] / [a], so today is likely the beginning of a deep or sideways correction [2] / [b].
Have a great trading day...with care!

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

SPX - New uptrend in progress

Today the impulsive Elliott wave is converted into 3 extended wave of wave 1/a,  and this confirm the uptrend outlook.
This changes my main scenario, which becomes the first alternate until yesterday.
This count assumes that Friday ended the x wave of minor degree flat type pattern on Fibonacci price retracement 23.6%, and it is already begun the last wave y that will bring the index to new highs.
The new first alternate scenario is a sideways pattern w-x-y-x-z type with fourth wave  x  in  progress,  which means the same impending implications; the confirmation of the uptrend at least up to 1470-1475.
However tomorrow is possible the completion of wave 1/a and the start of wave 2/b.
Have a great trading day...with care!


SPX - Up move

The last movement appears a five wave pattern (wave a or 1), so I'm waiting for a correction (wave b or 2) and a new up move (final zig-zag c or wave 3).
My 2° Alternate scenario: the five wave pattern complete an irregular 3-3-5 (wave x), and new down wave y.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Monday, October 15, 2012

SPX - Example of Elliott Wave intraday trade

From my premarket post, I suppose yesterday ended a 5 wave of [a ](preferred count) or 3 wave of b wave  (2nd alternate count) or 5 wave of c (1st alternate count).
All three scenarios have in common the assumption that I'm waiting for an impulsive wave in 5 movements ( a ,  2°Alt c  ,  1 ).
So I expect wave [1], which is in 5, and then there is an irregular [2] , a 3-3-5 pattern, which ends near a Fibonacci price and time cluster; at this point the situation from unclear becomes more clear. I have the full coincidence (very rare) of: pattern + price + time + momentum + cycle;
now my strategy is to wait for an upswing breakout and open a long position.
Target + 10, stop loss - 4.
A risky but successfull (and lucky) trade that only Elliott wave and Fibonacci ratios can offer.
See you tomorrow.


I follow the suggestion of Glenn Neely, I use cash data to analyze market behavior ; this involves less difficulty in deciphering an Elliott Wave pattern.

SPX - Uncertain situation

The situation is still extremely uncertain.
According to my preferred scenario, the correction is not over; even if the last bearish movement seems impulsive, it appears too short (in time) to be qualified as minuette degree.
However the last minor Elliott wave pattern could also be, like a first alternative, a completed flat a-b-c or an ongoing triangle a-b-c-d-e
The 1428-1425 is a ​​Fibonacci price cluster area and a reaction is possible.
I stay very cautious.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Friday, October 12, 2012

SPX - Intermediate outlook

Last month my preferred scenario for the intermediate term has not changed.
The market closes today with the biggest weekly decline in more than four months; the break of 1430 support does not worry too much if the index does not accelerate and keep 1420 level.
The current pattern looks like a sideways of minor degree (x) and could be a flat, a complex, a three or even a triangle.
In these market conditions, it is better to be underweight but ready to return long on leading stocks.
Below my preferred scenario, and the first alternate (very similar).
Have a great weekend!



Thursday, October 11, 2012

SPX - Too many alternatives for the sideways pattern

SPX has tested the 26 September bottom.
Last bearish wave seems more impulsive than corrective.
The movement from the top of September 14 appears like a sideways pattern which can be:
> a flat, with impending bottom (the best scenario);
> a complex, in this case may not have reached the bottom;
> a three or a triangle in progress;
> an elongated flat (Neely's pattern , the worst scenario).
To understand more, it can be useful to see  and analyze the structure of next bounce.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

SPX - From up to neutral trend

Yesterday bad day.
I thought at least in a pullback of 0.5%, however, the index lost 1%.
This bearish acceleration changes the outlook; the trend changes from up to neutral and less likely that 26 September bottom is a key turning point.
If today the market does not recover the scenario worsens considerably.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

SPX - Correction continues

SPX continues its correction; with reference to my preferred scenario I think that several sessions missing before the end since it has not yet completed the first wave (a/w) of the y wave (probably by tomorrow or Thursday) but it is possible that the low of September 26 did not will be broken.
Today I'm waiting for a pullback since the cycle on an hourly basis has reached a bottom.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Monday, October 8, 2012

SPX - Correction in uptrend

Preferred scenario; friday x wave is completed ; now the market is in y wave of a complex sideways pattern.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Friday, October 5, 2012

SPX - Confirmed uptrend

The index improves its situation and the trend remain bullish.
It's seems to occur a Cup with Handle pattern.
I changed my preferred scenario , raising one degree on 14 September top.
My first count , now, is for a complex x wave of minor degree in progress.
I'm waiting for a first top (minute x wave).
Have a great trading day...with care!

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

SPX - Congestion phase before the thrust

The market is still in a phase of strong indecision;
my preferred count and the first alternate are now very similar in probability;
it's important that there isn't the breakdown of the trendline support, otherwise the bearish scenario prevails (see last post).
Have a great trading day...with care!

Monday, October 1, 2012

SPX - New uptrend in search of confirmation

The movement of the last session made ​​weak my preferred count, valid until breakdown of 1430 level.
The new first alternate count provides that the corrective wave began on September 14 is not complete and is forming the x wave of a complex wxyxz.

It's still risky open positions.
Have a great trading day with care!