"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Friday, March 29, 2013

EUROCRATS HAVE THROWN THE MASK and requiring the sacrifice of private investors

This week was consumed the fifth rescue in the European Union, the lightest in the facts but the heaviest in the form.

After spending more than 500 billion Euros in aid to Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain, it seems that the Troika wanted to spare 10 billion to save Cyprus.

It is not credible, s
imply lacked the will, and the justifications for the "elections in Germany" or "lesson to Russia," are weak and unsatisfactory.

The bailout of Cyprus provides for the closure of a bank, the restructuring of another, the cut of the savings of the bondholders, but above all, the compulsory levy on deposits.

A change of unprecedented strategy that becomes a terrifying precedent.

Many felt that this new bailout's model imposed by the Troika, was a "unique case", modeled on a small EU country, however "inconvenient" because it is the tax haven of the oligarchs Russians; the French President Hollande repeated it loudly, I do not know how convinced, perhaps to exorcise the problem.

But some doubt that it was not an isolated plan showed the outset; the Eurocrats would not have given birth to a hypothesis so disruptive if they had at least thought to experience a new "final solution" to the crisis of sovereign debt and the so-called "moral hazard."

Despite having shown little foresight in the management of previous crises, especially in the Greek, which cost much more than expected because of the inability to assess the adverse effects of an intervention reluctant and belated, it is difficult to think that "our" European leaders are so naive to don't predict the effects of such a choice.

In fact it is more likely that they wanted to test the market, and launch at the same time a heavy warning to Spain and Italy.

Reuters, the President of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem says "If we want a sound financial sector, the only way is to say that those who have taken risks to manage them, and if it can not should not hire them."

Again: Thomas Straubhaar, a professor of economics at the University of Hamburg,  wrote in Die Welt: "So far, the countries bankrupt could use the fear of a domino effect to blackmail Europe. Now, it is no longer possible because the euro-zone countries have in hand a new paper, which should not be afraid to use. "

After the usual comedy of denials, it turns out that there is a legislative proposal to the European Parliament which provides for the possibility of intervention on deposits over € 100,000.

Institutionalize a procedure of compulsory levy on current accounts and deposits means irreparably undermine the confidence of investors in the banks; it is to violate one of the sacred tenets of savings.

In the United States, immediately after the Lehman crisis, have so understood the gravity of the problem that the Government and the Fed intervened to create a network of protection on banks and depositors.

It will be said, States fails so also the banks!

True, but the banks were born that collect money deposited by savers and the grant of loans to households and businesses, investors pour their money in current accounts and deposits not because of the performance, now also really very least, how to the safety and readiness of redemption.

If the saver has the doubt that his money in the bank are not safe, the consequences can be devastating; panic, runs on banks to withdraw capital, banks that do not have sufficient cash and close in a few days, perhaps not reopen because insolvent, crack total system, public disorder and worse.

The Government of Nicosia launched by decree restrictions on withdrawals of various types (cash, checks, cash, deposit accounts, credit cards) to avoid the risk of a capital flight that could destabilize the banking system, and have been introduced the first eurozone exchange controls.

The reopening of banks in Cyprus after a 12-day lockout, there were long queues at the counters but a relative and unexpected calm. Obviously they still need to digest the effects of what is happening to them, and that the markets have already guessed.

From now, the problem for the countries at risk will be not only represented by the heavy conditionality imposed in case of resorting to aid and shield anti-spread, it will be like someone has successfully written "the sacrifice required of the private investor"


Thursday, March 28, 2013

SPX - Elliott Wave update

The wait for a new bullish movement continues, but it is necessary that the breakout takes place as soon as possible, preferably today or the next session, otherwise the scenario deteriorates in the negative direction.
I confirm the scenarios presented in yesterday's post (to which I refer also to the hourly chart).
Have a great trading day...with care!


Wednesday, March 27, 2013

SPX - Waiting for a bullish breakout

The market always shows an amazing strength and seems it doesn't want to retrace.
To two counts presented in yesterday's post , I add an option, the second alternate count: b wave is finished @ 1546.
The substance does not change, rather appears enhanced; the scenarios of an impending bullish breakout become more likely.
Have a great trading day...with care!


Tuesday, March 26, 2013

SPX - Sideways pattern remains in progress

The failed breakout has reduced the probability that b wave is ended, so a recount is necessary.
The new preferred scenario becomes the previous first alternate (slightly bearish); b wave is a sideways pattern (triangle or three) in progress with w wave of wave [c]/[y] in its mid-move; target = 1538.
The alternate count (bullish), that considers an Alt:[4] of wave a , is becoming less likely because it seems disproportionate with wave [2] , unless it was finished March 21, and because it appears as a "three" rather than a "five".

Have a great trading day ... with care!




Monday, March 25, 2013

SPX - Be ready for a new upward move

b wave could be finished because we have reached the minimum target time, the Fibonacci time projection (a * 38.2%).
Preferred scenario: b wave in ended with a complex corrective pattern [w]-[x]-[y] and c wave is starting;
First alternate scenario (new); b wave in not ended because it is a triangle and the waves [d] and [e] are still under construction;
Second alternate scenario (2°Alt: the old first), we are in Alt:3 wave of  Alt:[5] .
Have a great trading day...with care!


Saturday, March 23, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of DJIA, DAX, GOLD, CRUDE OIL and major Currency pairs

The corrective bull market is still in progress; according to the preferred scenario, the v wave of minor wave a is close to completion (for long-term scenario, see weekly chart on March 09, 2013 post, or US Index Long-term view page)


German DAX

Preferred count: getting closer to the top of Cycle degree D ; DAX is in minute wave x of minor wave z ending the intermediate wave (y) of primary wave [Y] .
Alternate count: the new bull market is already started, we are in the final stage of leading diagonal Alt:(1) (for long-term scenario, see weekly chart on March 09, 2013 post)



The fear for Cyprus's bailout and the achievement of the long-term up-trendline seems to have stopped the descent; perhaps GOLD have reached the bottom of intermediate (w) and a corrective upward move is starting.



OIL remain in a controversial scenario (very difficult to trade...)


In the FOREX page you could see the long-term scenario on weekly charts,
previous short-term outlook on daily charts, and the previous counts on 4 hours charts.


I've updated the preferred count; wave w of  b/x wave of minor degree seems to be ended, so a rebound could start.


The alternate count prevails; the top is minor wave 3 and the down move is the
first wave w of wave 4 .
The new alternate scenario; wave Alt:c is ended and so also intermediate wave Alt:(w).


The preferred scenario remain bullish; we could be in the wave 2 of wave 5 of minor degree.


The preferred scenario (very bullish) was correct: this market has moved upward in wave [v] of 1 of 1 of (1)
Alternate scenario; the intermediate triangle pattern is still underway.

(chart of two weeks ago, still valid...)

(new chart updated....)



Preferred scenario is confired; wave 4 of minute degree is ending with the completion of [c] wave of a zig-zag pattern, so the downward move will continue.

(chart of two weeks ago, still valid...)


From last post; the intermediate wave (3) is not ended, the target is between 98.8 - 99.86, where the minor wave 5 may be completed, and and this could happen as early as next week.
Preferred scenario; we could be in the wave 2 of wave 5 of minor degree of intermediate wave (3) .
Alternate scenario (neutral/bearish); the wave 5 is already finished and so still the intermediate wave (3) ; now we are in the wave a/w of w. (4)

Have a great weekend ;-)


Friday, March 22, 2013

SPX - Correction continues

Preferred scenario continues to prevail; after the completion of upward wave [b]/[x] , now we could be in the third wave of b , that seems to be a double zig-zag, where the first w is already finished; I'm waiting for the continuation of the down move.
First alternate scenario (bullish); we are in the Alt:2 of the Alt:[5] of a .
Have a great trading day ... with care!


Thursday, March 21, 2013

SPX - Rebound in correction (or final impulse)

The preferred scenario presented in the last post, according to which was probably reached the bottom of wave [a]/[w] , seems to be confirmed by the yesterday's rise that could be qualifies as wave [b]/[x]  of minute wave b .
A little breakout of the top labeled as wave a does not necessarily mean that the count is invalidated  because the wave b could be an irregular or an expanded pattern.
First alternate scenario (15 m. chart): the last top was the Alt:[3] , the bottom of the March 19 the Alt:[4] ,  so we are still in the final impulse of wave a .

Have a great trading day ... with care!



Wednesday, March 20, 2013

SPX - Correction in progress

The correction in progress, labeled wave b of minor wave z , appears like a complex or like a combination (the two corrective patterns most hard to interpret).
It's difficult to say if the index has reached the first bottom of wave [a]/[w] ;
this down move could be a w-x-y or a w-x-y-x-z and 1525 the best target, but the market is still very strong.
We must be patient, look and wait; in this condition, trading is too risk even in the intra-day time frame.
Have a great trading day ... with care!


Tuesday, March 19, 2013

SPX - The first top is achieved

In the Friday post I wrote: "Between today and the next trading session could be completed the wave [5] , then starts the pullback in wave b " but still yesterday, even if I wrote "the pattern is not clear," I confirmed the main scenario (bullish), that the market's behavior has sanctioned to be wrong.
The first alternate scenario prevails; the top of minute wave a of minor wave z was achieved Friday at 1563.62, less than two points from the lower zone of the target (1565-1570), and I admit to have recognized it with a day late.
The corrective wave b is now underway; the first down movement retrace close to 1545.13, exactly the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of previous impulse wave, but its completion will require some days.
Have a great trading day ...with care!



Monday, March 18, 2013

SPX - Sideways move before the first top

I'm surprised of the last movement, so I had to update the count.
The pattern is not clear, but I confirm the preferred scenario (bullish); the alternate one is bearish.

Have a great trading day...with care!


Saturday, March 16, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD , USD/JPY - Update

Starting today, the Forex analysis is enriched by the charts to 240 minutes.
In the FOREX page you could see the long-term scenario on weekly charts
and the previous short-term outlook on daily charts.


It's remains the Currency pair with the scenario most confused among those considered.
My preferred count is a correction phase like b/x wave of minor degree;
a first down move (wave [w] or Alt:w ) seems to be ended, so a bounce could start.



March 01, 2013 I wrote: "According to forecast, there was the completion of wave 3 of 3 ; Tuesday, wave 4 is started; it's unlikely a retracement below 85."
I confirm this preferred scenario (neutral/bullish); the wave 4 has built three wave and could be a flat pattern [a]-[b]-[c] already finished or a triangle in progress.



Preferred scenario (bullish); the expected wave 4 of minor degree could already be over; wave 1 of 5 is in completion.
Alternate scenario (neutral/bearish); bounce in the wave Alt:x of wave 4 .



March 01, 2013 I wrote:
"The multi-month wave [4] of primary degree is ending with a "throw-under" beyond a triangle pattern, so we could be close to a bottom reversal".
This forecast seems to be correct; wave (e) has bottomed close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave (d) ; however a confirmation is needed, and this is the brekout of down-line of the triangle pattern.
Preferred scenario (very bullish): we are in wave [iii] of 1 of 1 of (1)

Alternate scenario; the intermediate triangle pattern is still underway.



January 2, 2013 has completed the multi-year triangle wave [B] and started the downward wave [C] of primary degree, we might still be in the minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (1) .
Preferred scenario; wave 4 of minute degree is started and after the completion, the downward move continues.



My previous analysis was incorrect; the intermediate wave (3) is not ended, the target is between 98.8 - 99.86, where the minor wave 5 may be completed, and  and this could happen as early as next week.

Have a great weekend ;-)


Friday, March 15, 2013

SPX - Waiting for a first top

The wave [4] was already over in a "fast and short mode".
The index, by now, is very close to the first bullish target (1565-1570), considered the most optimistic assumptions as end of wave a of minute degree.
Between today and the next trading session could be completed the wave [5] , then starts the pullback in wave b .
Have a great trading day...with care!!!



Thursday, March 14, 2013

SPX - Close to a completion of the impulse wave

The underway pattern isn't clear but seems to prevails the hypothesis that the wave [3] is over and the wave [4] is ending, and we are close to a bullish breakout (preferred scenario).
However, even if with less probability, we can't discard the alternate scenarios, according to which , after a top of Alt:a/w , the market is developing the Alt:b/x wave.

Have a great trading day....with care!


Wednesday, March 13, 2013

SPX - Correction of minute or minuette degree

scenarios were too optimistic;
the wave [3] or Alt:[5] is over, but the uptrend is still underway.

Have a great trading day...with care!