"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Friday, February 28, 2014

SPX - Uncertainty

The market does not break upward (as expected yesterday), but neither downward.
Of course, it can not stand still for a long time without one direction.


Thursday, February 27, 2014

SPX - Still sideways

... but with bearish implications for today session; first target @ 1826


Tuesday, February 25, 2014

SPX - Strange pattern

Irregular or expanded flat in wave [2] ?
I'm not very convinced but other patterns seem less likely.


Saturday, February 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs

In the FOREX page you can see the previous long-term scenario
on weekly charts and short-term outlook on daily charts.



The market movement has confirmed the expected outlook.
The intermediate impulsive wave, like an extension third, could be over and, with it, Primary wave [1] of Cycle wave I of the new SuperCycle Bull Market .
Preferred count: correction in downward wave [2] : 1 minor of (a) intermediate of [2] Primary
Alternate count: still in intermediate wave (5) of [1] Primary, the last top was  Alt:1 minor


Also the market movement of this Currency pair has confirmed the expected outlook.

Main count: we are in the final wave 5 of minor wave 5 of intermediate wave (1) of Primary [1]
Alternate count: we have already reached the top of wave Alt:(1)


The previous outlook (bearish) was incorrect because the market has turned upward with another bullish move.
The pattern in progress is vague and not appropriate for trading.
Preferred scenario : we could be in wave c minor of (e) of [B]
First alternate: we are in wave Alt:2 of Alt:(1) of upward Alt:[C]


In the previous outlook I expected a completion of downward wave (x) and the next bullish wave (y) .
After a few months it seems that the market has moved in accordance with this forecast even if, sincerly, wave (y) was shorter than planned.
Now this Currency pair could be in interesting juncture.

Main count: a diagonal wave c of downward wave (a)/(w) is ending; ready for a bullish reversal.
Alternate count: the bearsh wave in ending is Alt:(2) of Alt:[1] of the new Cycle bull market Alt: III/C


As I wrote in other post "always in contrasted and unclear trend, with no interesting setup"
The wave (e) of triangular wave [B] is not over. Slightly bullish (but with the classic indecision).



The previous outlook was incorrect because the market had already reached a top and tacked down, probably in a new SuperCycle bearish wave.

Main count: Intermediate wave (1)/(a) of new downward wave [1]/[A] seems completed; the expectation is for a rebound in wave (2)/(b) .

Have a great weekend ;-)


Friday, February 21, 2014

SPX - Correction in progress

...but not like a zig-zag pattern, as I thought in the last post;
the yesterday's upward movement seems to be wave b/x of a flat / three.


Thursday, February 20, 2014

SPX - Few days of correction

A very short wave 5 is already over and, with it, also wave [1]
A corrective wave [2] has started and seems a zig-zag (single or double).


Wednesday, February 19, 2014

SPX - In sideways correction

The micro-top has been reached, now we could be in wave 4  before the final upward move that completes the wave [1] of minuette degree.


Tuesday, February 18, 2014

SPX - Waiting a micro top

Preferred scenario: topping wave (v) of 3 of [1] of 3 minute of c minor of (y) intermediate
First alternate: topping wave Alt:5 of [1] of Alt:5 of Alt:5 of Alt:(3) intermediate
Second alternate: 2°Alt:c of 2°Alt:[b/x] of 2°Alt:b of 2°Alt:y of (y) intermediate


Friday, February 14, 2014

SPX - Close to a micro top

New alternate counts, now the top 3 are all bullish.

We could be in wave (v) of 3 (or Alt:5 ) of [1] .


Thursday, February 13, 2014

SPX - In wave four

Wave [1] is not over but it's difficult to say if the current pullback is wave (iv) or wave 4 .


Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

SPX - Several impulsive patterns

There are many possibilities to count the impulsive wave from the last bottom @ 1738
Preferred count: wave 1 of [1] or [c] , like fifth extension, is in completion.
First alternate: we are at the top of wave Alt:3 close to the 2.618 Fibonacci extension of wave Alt:1 from Alt:2
Second alternate: the top is wave 2°Alt:5 of wave [1] or [c] so the retracement will be deeper.


Monday, February 10, 2014

SPX - New uptrend

Wave 2 seems to be finished;
we could be in wave 3 (or Alt:1) of [1] of 3 minute of upward c minor .


Saturday, February 8, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Indexes

Elliott Wave Analysis of SPX, NDX, DJIA,

For previous outlook and long term view on weekly charts,
see post of August 17, 2013


New counts:
Preferred: wave 3 minute of c minor of (y) intermediate of [Y] Primary of X Cycle (first target @ 2.000; maximum Cycle top @ 2.200 area in 3Q 2014)
First alternate : upward Alt:b of downward Alt:w of a double zig-zag Alt:w-x-y in intermediate Alt:(4) of Primary Alt:[C] of X Cycle
2°Alternate : wave 2°Alt:(4) of Alt:[3] of 2°Alt:I of new Supercycle wave 2°Alt:[V]


Preferred: wave 4 minute (like exp flat or exp triangle) of 5 extended minor of (c) Intermediate of [Y] Primary of X Cycle



Is still possible a Triangular SuperCycle wave [IV]
Other scenarios like SPX

German DAX

The best stock market (that required a recount)
Preferred: close to a top of intermediate wave (5) of Primary [1] of Cycle I of SuperCycle wave [V]


A very intricate pattern.
Preferred: close to a top of Primary wave [C] of Cycle D of SuperCycle wave [IV]
Alternate: wave Alt:[3] Primary of Alt:I Cycle of Alt:[V]

Swiss SMI

Preferred: in intermediate wave (5) of Primary [C] of Cycle D of a SuperCycle running triangle in wave [IV]

Spain IBEX

Preferred: close to a top of [X] wave of Cycle wave A/W of a SuperCycle [IV]


15%-20% from the top of Primary [C]/[Y] of second Cycle X of SuperCycle [IV]


It seems topping with intermediate (c) of Primary [X] of Cycle X ;
First alternate: topping of Alt:(3) of Alt:[C] of Alt:B


Have a great weekend ;-)

Friday, February 7, 2014

SPX - At the crucial point of the rebound

The expected rebound has arrived.
There are several options; it could be:
> the wave (c) of 2 of downward wave [c] (this scenario is invalidated if the market still goes up)
> the impulse wave Alt:1 of upward wave Alt:[1] if wave 2 is already over.
> the impulse wave Alt:1 or a of upward wave Alt:[a]
> the impulse wave Alt:a of upward wave 2°Alt:[2] (if 1850 is the Cycle Top)
The only thing is that it seems a credible impulse wave .


Thursday, February 6, 2014

SPX - In front of opposite scenario of very short-term

Difficult market,  perhaps a postponement of yesterday's scenarios
(continuous arrows = preferred scenario (down); dashed arrow = first alternate (up))


Wednesday, February 5, 2014

SPX - Rebound

Main scenario: rebound @ 1773 (wave 2 of [c] ) then downward wave 3 begins
First alternate scenario: rebound @ 1800 (wave Alt:[b] ) then downward wave Alt:1 of Alt:[c] begins.


Tuesday, February 4, 2014

SPX - The downtrend continues

The wave [b] was short-lived (or it was just the Alt:4 )

Still down; the wave [c] is not over (but Alt:5 of Alt:[a]  could be).