"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)


Monday, April 30, 2012

SPX - Congestion continues (part 2)

The upside breakout of  1393 level has invalidated the main scenario, replacing it with alternative scenarios that are still thinking about the formation of a triangle or three, of minute or minuette degree.
Have a great trading day...with care!




 La rottura al rialzo del massimo a 1393 ha invalidato lo scenario principale, sostituendolo con gli scenari alternativi che fanno ancora pensare alla formazione di un triangle o di un three, di grado minute o minuette.
Buon trading...e prudenza!

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

SPX - Congestion continues

In the last 10 days, the market has created a series of zig-zag in opposite directions with a few points of potential gain, so my strategy to stay out and wait proved successful, because I consider that for each open position on the market there is the risk of incurring a loss, so for me it is always best to stay on the market as little as possible on the basis of our trade-off of reward / risk.
The preferred scenario is still bearish, and those alternatives are mostly sideways with the possible formation of a triangle or three before another bearish wave.
So I continue to stay out.

Have a great trading day...with care!



Negli ultimi 10 giorni , il mercato ha realizzato una serie di zig-zag in opposte direzioni con pochi punti di potenziale guadagno, quindi la mia strategia di stare fuori e aspettare si è rivelata vincente.
Infatti considero sempre che per ogni posizione aperta sul mercato c'è il rischio di subire una perdita, così secondo me è sempre meglio stare sul mercato il meno possibile in funzione del proprio trade off di reward / risk.
Lo scenario preferito è ancora ribassista; quelli alternativi sono principalmente laterali con possibile formazione di un triangolo o un three prima di un'altra onda ribassista.
Così continuo a restare fuori.

Buon trading...e prudenza!









Friday, April 20, 2012

SPX - Doubtful situation (part 2)

The trend remains bearish, although its strength seems reduced.
I confirm the two scenarios of the previous post, and the resulting business strategy.

Have a great trading day...with care! 


Il trend resta ribassista, anche se la sua forza sembra ridotta.
Confermo il duplice scenario del post precedente, e anche la conseguente strategia operativa.
Buon trading...e prudenza!

Friday, April 13, 2012

SPX - Doubtful situation

Quick update
 
Preferred scenario; downward continues beyond the minimum mark in 1357
Alternate scenario; upward continues over the top in 1422. 

It is not an appropriate time to open positions.  

I am in doubt, so I stay out.



Thursday, April 12, 2012

SPX - NEW COUNT

It's now clear that the strange pattern in progress is unlikely to form a bottom of minuette degree.
The decline that extended over the past days changed my main scenario;
according to my new favorite hypothesis, the last top in 1422 marks the end of the y minor wave of (w) intermediate wave.
If so, it should be started a a/w minor (red) wave as the first sequence of a corrective pattern of intermediate degree (more details soon to be published on the page "Long term scenarios of U.S. index")
The alternative scenario considers the downward correction like an x wave of minor degree of a double zig-zag pattern.
Possible targets: first 1340, second 1290 (Fibonacci price cluster)
The market begins a phase of great uncertainty as the alternatives of corrective waves are very numerous, and it becomes extremely difficult to position correctly.
The short term trend changes from bullish to neutral / bearish, so I don't open more long positions on pullbacks or on top's breakouts, but I will open short positions on bounces or on bottom's breakdowns (always according to the degree of the waves!)
Have a great trading day...with care!!!

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

SPX - A strange corrective pattern

The market is located in a juncture very hard to understand; 
the count proposed is weak because the wave b , even if it were a three, has a width in terms of time in excess of the wave a
"When in doubt, stay out" and I will observe the market from outside, ready for a recount that today I would not do because the alternative hypothesis are too many.
Have a  great trading day---with care!



Thursday, April 5, 2012

SPX - Near a bottom of minuette degree

Up to now, the market moves as expected.
The strong oversold suggests a near cycle bottom.
A breakdown of the support to 1378 would be a signal for a new count.
Although the trend is bullish, looking to open a long intraday position on a presumed bottom is very risky; better to wait for a first upmove.

Have a great trading day...with care!



Fino ad ora il mercato si muove come previsto.
Il forte ipervenduto fa pensare vicino un minimo di ciclo.
Una rottura del supporto a 1378 sarebbe un segnale per un nuovo conteggio.
Comunque anche se il trend è rialzista, aprire operazioni long su un presunto minimo è molto rischioso; meglio aspettare il primo rialzo.

Buon trading...e prudenza!
 

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

SPX - Sideways congestion continues

Sideways congestion continues; the up move started 3 days ago seems to have a corrective structure (3 waves) and this is to assume that the correction is finished and before we see new highs we must wait another downward correction.
The next target, 1440-1445, is a level of static resistance but also a Fibonacci price clusters, however, the third wave of minuette degree [c] would have an abnormal size than the first (unless it is a c failure).

Therefore it is useful to wait a further development of the movement today and maybe tomorrow
Have a great trading day ... with care!



Prosegue la congestione laterale; il movimento rialzista iniziato 3 giorni fa sembra avere una struttura correttiva (3 onde) e questo fa presupporre che la correzione non è terminata e prima di vedere nuovi massimi è necessario attendere uno storno.
Il prossimo obiettivo a 1440-1445 è un livello di resistenza statica ma anche un Fibonacci price cluster , tuttavia la terza onda di grado minuette[c] avrebbe dimensioni anomale rispetto alla prima (a meno che non sia una c failure).
Perciò è utile aspettare un ulteriore sviluppo del movimento di oggi e forse domani
Buon trading...e prudenza!