"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Thursday, April 12, 2012


It's now clear that the strange pattern in progress is unlikely to form a bottom of minuette degree.
The decline that extended over the past days changed my main scenario;
according to my new favorite hypothesis, the last top in 1422 marks the end of the y minor wave of (w) intermediate wave.
If so, it should be started a a/w minor (red) wave as the first sequence of a corrective pattern of intermediate degree (more details soon to be published on the page "Long term scenarios of U.S. index")
The alternative scenario considers the downward correction like an x wave of minor degree of a double zig-zag pattern.
Possible targets: first 1340, second 1290 (Fibonacci price cluster)
The market begins a phase of great uncertainty as the alternatives of corrective waves are very numerous, and it becomes extremely difficult to position correctly.
The short term trend changes from bullish to neutral / bearish, so I don't open more long positions on pullbacks or on top's breakouts, but I will open short positions on bounces or on bottom's breakdowns (always according to the degree of the waves!)
Have a great trading day...with care!!!


  1. Hypothesis Testing
    Define Hypothesis, what is Hypothesis? Define Hypothesis Testing, null Hypothesis,

  2. from Wikipedia "A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. The term derives from the Greek......meaning ..."to suppose"....In a related but distinguishable usage, the term hypothesis is used in formal logic for the antecedent of a proposition; thus in the proposition "IF P, THEN Q", P denotes the hypothesis (or antecedent), Q can be called a consequent.."

    In my post I do not use the term "hypothesis" in a scientific, or mathematical or statistical sense, because I do not think that this is applicable to technical analysis in general and in particular to Elliott Wave Principle.
    I use the term "hypothesis" "in a related but distinguishable usage" or literally as "IF .... THEN ..."

    So, to summarize and explain in another way what I wrote in the blog:

    preferred scenario: IF 1422 level is a top of (w) intermediate (green) wave, THEN started the a / w minute (red) wave of a / w minor (orange) wave of (x) intermediate (green) wave, with a bottom no later than 1290.
    alternate scenario: IF the top in 1422 will be passed upward in the next upcoming weeks, THEN downwards from April 2 should read as the a / w minute (red) wave of x minor (orange) wave of (w) intermediate (green) wave in progress.