"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Friday, May 31, 2013

SPX - The first three scenarios for today market movement

High indecision.
After the yesterday's rise, until the 61.8% Fibonacci's retracement of previous downward move, the possible very short-term scenarios increase, and my first three have, almost, the same odds.
First count (bearish): wave 3 of [c] of x wave;
Alternate count (sideways): a triangular wave Alt:[b] is in progress; there are already wave Alt:a , Alt:b and Alt:c ; the market is in wave Alt:d ;
Second alternate count (down and up): the triangular wave in progress is wave x ; now we are in the final wave 2°Alt:[e] .
Have a great trading day...with care!

Thursday, May 30, 2013

SPX - Still down

The market has moved according to my main scenario but I raised it of one degree (structure confirmed):  now we should be in the downward wave [c] of a zig-zag pattern [a]/[b]/[c] of x minute;
First alternate scenario: Alt:c of Alt:[4] .
Have a great trading day ... with care!


Wednesday, May 29, 2013

SPX - Congestion phase of minuette degree

Preferred scenario: the market could be in the downward wave c of a zig-zag pattern a-b-c of wave [a]/[w] of x minute;
First alternate scenario: Alt:y of Alt:[4] , close to a new upward move.
Have a great trading day ... with care!

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

SPX - Downtrend of minute degree is underway

I have changed my preferred count with the old alternate;
in intraday basis, we could be in wave c of [a]/[w] of x minute
of z minor (or wave b is not yet over)
Have a great trading day ... with care!


Monday, May 27, 2013

Elliott Wave analysis of several Stock Market Indexes

The reaction of the markets last Thursday was that of a drug addict who perceives that his doses are about to end.
It is not Tokyo or the decline in China's production to have triggered the reversal;
it was the FED who made ​​clear that his ultra expansionary policy will not last forever.
Market makers and istitutional traders can not yet know when the U.S. central bank will end its QE, some think in September, others in December, but when the market will perceive that the drug is ending, his reaction will be disruptive.
This rise is mainly financial / speculativeit is not connected to the real economy; when liquidity will stop, the BEAR knocks on the door, as always inexorable.
However, I do not believe that global equity markets have reached the Top Reversal Cycle.

DJIA: correction of wave 2 minute or  Alt:4 minor; still in uptrend.

NASDAQ: correction of wave [ii] of minuette degree?

GERMAN DAX : pullback of wave w o Alt:1 of minor degree.

LONDON FTSE100 : preferred scenario; wave 2 minor in progress.

ZURICH SMI : difficult counting; top of wave 3 minute or Alt:5 of Alt(3) ?

ITALIAN FTSEMIB ; here we are still in a long term downtrend;
I think the top was wave x minor , according to my call of May 17 (a day before...) made in my Italian blog ;
Alternate count (very weak): the top was Alt:3 of Alt:a of Alt:(y) ; the uptrend resumes immediately.

TOKIO NIKKEI - a little crash; if the index restart immediately, this is wave [iv] of 5 minute of 3 minor; otherwise , the top has been Alt:3 minor.

Best wishes for your trading !

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, AUD/USD

In the FOREX page you can see the long-term scenario on weekly charts
and the previous short-term outlook on daily charts and on 4 hours charts.



Main count: the wave 4 minute of 5 minor of (3) intermediate of [1] Primary could be ended; final bullish upward move.
Alternate count: a short wave Alt:5 minor is finished so also the wave (3) or Alt:(c)


The count has become cloudy.
Main count: wave [ii] is ending so the wave 3 starts; target 139
Alternate count: we have already reached the top of wave Alt:(1)


the expected downward move has continued
We should be in the pullback of wave 2 minute of 3 minor of (1) of [C] .
Very interesting the Fibonacci price projections in the 60 minutes chart.


In the last post I wrote: "The alternate scenario prevails; it's likely the completion of the corrective downward wave c/y of (b)/(x); "
the y wave seems to be ended; now we should be in the second wave x of a double three pattern.


Still contrasted and unclear trend, with no interesting setup.
We could be in upward [x] wave of downward wave y of b/x .


This currency pair seems to have not yet reached the bottom so the probability that the preferred count is incorrect increase.
Are we in the wave 4 of c of (e) ?

Have a great weekend ;-)


Friday, May 24, 2013

SPX - Correction continues

The preferred count, pullback in wave [4] like a zig-zag pattern in which wave c is still missing, is believable until 1618.
For other considerations referring to yesterday's post.
Have a great trading day...with care!

 (replaced for a counting error)

Thursday, May 23, 2013

SPX - Downward wave in progress

The market has finally reached the top expected.
Now the question is to understand the degree of the top, considering that the bearish movement in progress seems to be in impulsive mode.

Preferred scenario: the top is wave [3] minuette of a minute of z minor; so we are in wave a of [4] ;  this assumption is invalidated below 1622 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement);
First alternate scenario (Alt:) : the top is wave Alt:w minute of z minor; so this downward move is of minute degree;
Second alternate scenario (2°Alt); the top is 2°Alt:c of z minor of (z) intermediate of [Y] Primary, so it is the top of Cycle...

It is now important to focus on the shape of the pattern.

Have a great trading day...with care!!!


Wednesday, May 22, 2013

SPX - brief update

Reference to yesterday's post.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

SPX - Correction of minuette degree?

It's likely that the market has reached the top of minuette degree, labeled like wave [3] , close to the Fibonacci price projection 1.618 * [1] + [2] .
If so, according to rule of alternation, we should expect a fourth wave in form of zig-zag pattern because the second wave was running type.
Have a great trading day ... with care!


Monday, May 20, 2013

SPX - Close to the top of minuette degree

The bullish move continues as expected as preferred scenario (the 2nd Alt has been invalidated).

Now we should be in the wave (3) of 5 of [3] (or Alt:[c]) of a minute .

Next target: 1674.

Have a great trading day ... with care!


Saturday, May 18, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Indexes, GOLD and OIL

Stock Market Indexes

 DJIA is in a very strong bullish corrective pattern.


Preferred scenario; we should be in wave c minor of (y) Intermediate of [Y] Primary of D Cycle;
the first top target is the intersection of the price with the uptrendline of the triangular pattern, close to 16.400 area between August and September , then is likely a reversal and the start of a new bear market Cycle;
Alternate scenario; super bullish: we are in the  Alt:(3) Intermediate of Alt:[3] of Alt:I in the new SuperCycle Bull Market Alt:[V]


 NASDAQ has accelerated breaking the strong resistence at 2,850 that for months stopped its upward trend and appears in wave 3 of 5 minor of (c) Intermediate; next target 3.300.

German DAX
pr we could be in the final intermediate wave (z) of [Y] of D Cycle; it's very difficult set a target but above 9,000 will prevail the alternate scenario that consider the early stage of a new SuperCycle Bull Market Alt:[V], so we would be in the Alt:(3) of Alt:[1] Alt:I Cycle.

 London FTSE-100 appears in the early stage of an extension like wave  (3) Intermediate or Alt:(5) of [C] Primary and has the rhythm to break the top at 6,950.

 Zurich SMI is in wave 5 minor of (3) of [C] Primary.



should be close to a top of minute degree, that is at the end of wave  x minor of (b)/(x) Intermediate of [C]/[Y] Primary.


JAPAN NIKKEI; It was years since I could not see a bull market of such power and persistence in a stock market of an industrialized country; in six months the index has risen by almost 80% and the impulse is so strong that it is difficult even to count this properly (one lost his hand due to the rarity of the event ...)

In a previous post I represented the potential bullish of Nikkei but frankly, I would have expected at least a sideways congestion to catch his breath (and enter in long position).
None of that, the index has even accelerated.

However I think that the SuperCycle bear market started in 1990 does not seem yet finished  and this great bounce is only the completion of the wave B Cycle; the first doubt on this hypothesis is due to the break, this  week, of  long-term downtrendline (dashed red on weekly chart) , a classic sign of change of trendbut in this case this event has a value, say questionable, because the line only connects two tops.
Preferred count: we are in 3 minor extended of (c) Intermediate, so there is the change of another rise  at least up to the 18,300 then about 20% above current levels.
Alternate count: if wave Alt:(b) was completed like a triangle pattern, we could be in the Alt:3 of 1 minor wave, so the bullish target is even higher.


GOLD is in a wave IV Cycle bear market, still far from the end.

CRUDE OIL is in a almost incomprehensible congestion;  we could be in the downward wave [C] or in a new bull market of primary degree;  sooner or later it will break definitively upward or downward, but now the best strategy is to stay out.

The value of the Crude Oil chart, however, is not so much in the opportunity of trading but in the  intermarket signal that it transmits: if the last Cycle uptrend of the stock markets were actually driven by the real economy, and then by the steady increase demand and production, also industrial, the Oil, which would be used as a raw material with increasing insistence,  should not be close to the top or , at least, much higher?

Have a great weekend!