"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Monday, May 27, 2013

Elliott Wave analysis of several Stock Market Indexes

The reaction of the markets last Thursday was that of a drug addict who perceives that his doses are about to end.
It is not Tokyo or the decline in China's production to have triggered the reversal;
it was the FED who made ​​clear that his ultra expansionary policy will not last forever.
Market makers and istitutional traders can not yet know when the U.S. central bank will end its QE, some think in September, others in December, but when the market will perceive that the drug is ending, his reaction will be disruptive.
This rise is mainly financial / speculativeit is not connected to the real economy; when liquidity will stop, the BEAR knocks on the door, as always inexorable.
However, I do not believe that global equity markets have reached the Top Reversal Cycle.

DJIA: correction of wave 2 minute or  Alt:4 minor; still in uptrend.

NASDAQ: correction of wave [ii] of minuette degree?

GERMAN DAX : pullback of wave w o Alt:1 of minor degree.

LONDON FTSE100 : preferred scenario; wave 2 minor in progress.

ZURICH SMI : difficult counting; top of wave 3 minute or Alt:5 of Alt(3) ?

ITALIAN FTSEMIB ; here we are still in a long term downtrend;
I think the top was wave x minor , according to my call of May 17 (a day before...) made in my Italian blog ;
Alternate count (very weak): the top was Alt:3 of Alt:a of Alt:(y) ; the uptrend resumes immediately.

TOKIO NIKKEI - a little crash; if the index restart immediately, this is wave [iv] of 5 minute of 3 minor; otherwise , the top has been Alt:3 minor.

Best wishes for your trading !

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