"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

SPX - Waiting for the confirmation of wave [5]

There is still no confirmation of the beginning of wave [5] which remains the preferred scenario.


Tuesday, July 30, 2013

SPX - wave [5] still lacks

Preferred scenario: wave [4] has finished at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the wave [5] of a is in progress. I'm looking for a wave y minor of (y) intermediate like an a-b-c zig-zag.

Alternate scenario: we are still in wave Alt:[4] and, after a triangular wave Alt:x , now a downward wave Alt:y is starting.

I am always of the opinion that in the long term is the DJIA who leads the path, as in 70s; the SPX chart is misleading.
Have a great trading day ... with care!



Saturday, July 27, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Index

Elliott Wave Analysis of DJIA, NDX, DAX, FTSE, FTSEMIB, SMI, NIKKEI - Update  of previous outlook (June 22, 2013).

Preferred count: wave 1 of c minor of (y) intermediate is ending; we should soon see the correction of wave 2
First alternate scenario: Alt:5 of Alt:(c)


NDX remains in uptrend but with strong resistance in 3280-3400 area where there is a Fibonacci price cluster.


the wave in progress could be a sideways such as a triangle or a three  a/w-b/x-c/y-d/x-e/z of second wave (x)
the first alternate (1°Alt:) considers the top like the Cycle Top D .
the second alternate (2°Alt:) corresponds to the alternative and super bullish long-term scenario shown in the weekly chart; we would be in Alt:(2) of Alt:I



this is the only stock market where my preferred long-term Outlook is bearish (not very convinced, but bearish).
It could already have reached the Cycle Top D , with a Primary wave [C] = Fibonacci's extension 0.618 of wave [A] from [B]
First alternate; we are in irregular Alt:(2) so the Top is still far.


Preferred scenario; still in uptrend of Primary degree; we should be in wave c of wave (4) intermediate;
The Alternate scenarios is more complex.


This is one of the weaker stock market in Eurozone.
Preferred scenario: it seems that an intermediate low, labeled wave (x) , has occured.
Now we should be in wave a of intermediate wave (y) of upward wave [C]/[Y] of Primary degree.
From several days I have a lot of long positions on my domestic stock market (see http://ChartPatternsTraders.blogspot.it ; "PORTAFOGLIO" page)


Preferred count:  we are always in wave 4 minor of (c) intermediate;
Alternate count: we are in a new bearish wave of Primary degree.

Have a great weekend ;-)!


Friday, July 26, 2013

SPX - Still in correction

We are still in wave [4] ; see the last post for the target.

Have a great trading day ... with care!


Thursday, July 25, 2013

SPX - Correction in progress

The expected wave [4] seems to be in progress; we could be in wave a/w.
I'm looking for a first target @ 1672, the second @ 1655.

My stock portfolio is unchanged.

Yesterday LL and ILMN, two of my focus stocks with high CanSlim rating, open with large Gap Up but with buy limit order becomes impossible to trade at this levels.

I still have to learn trading with BGU , the pattern of Chris Kacher and Gil Morales.
I wrote them a post; after a few minutes, Mr. Morales replies:
"I don't understand why these become impossible to trade at these levels. Buyable gap-up rules are quite clear - once you can determine and intra-day low on the gap-up day then the stock can be bought using that low as your stop. To me this is the simplest trade to put on.
The real question here may be the general market..."

Both things are true.
The problem with BGU may be only in my mind but, for a part-time trader like me, open a long position after a gap up of + 8% it's very difficult...
About the general market, indexes are very high even for market wizard with a trend-following approach.

Have a great trading day ... with care !!!




Wednesday, July 24, 2013

SPX - The correction of wave [4] has started

Wave [3] should be finished; the first target for wave [4] is 1678-1670, that is wave 4 of one lower degree.
My stock portfolio is unchanged.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

SPX - Close to a top of minuette degree

Preferred count: SPX is completing the wave 5 of [3] minuette of a minute, and it could be like a diagonal triangle.
First alternate count: we are in the extended third wave of sub-minuette degree , that is only wave 3 of [3]


Yesterday I bought  GMCR @ 74.80  and ACT @ 127.58

Now my US Stock Portfolio becomes: LNKD, BIIB, KKD, GMCR, ACT.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Monday, July 22, 2013

SPX - Elliott Wave update

The two-week holidays are over, the last one was very difficult without internet connection to publish a post and, particularly, to control my Broker's account.
From today I restart with daily updates.

SPX has exceeded the all time highs, giving precedence to my last alternate count on intraday charts but confirming my short and medium term preferred scenario, according to which the Cycle bull market was not yet finished.
Now the index should be in wave [3] minuette of a minute of y minor of (y) intermediate.


Last Friday I bought BIIB @ 228.10 and LNKD @ 203 ;
always open KKD , bought on April 9  (after my report of April 7 on StockTwits) that I had not closed by mistake (this stock had gone in stop loss but I had not placed in the Broker's platform (!!!), which proves that in trading, as in life, we also need a lot of luck considering that it gains + 30%...)

(with CanSlim Composite Rating, 0 minimum - 99 maximum)

I'm looking for a long position, on flat base pattern breakout, about these leading stocks:

TRIP 99, VRX 99, QCOR 99, ILMN 98, GMCR 97, LL 97, ACT 97, PRLB 97, SLCA 97, AWAY 96, FLT 96

Have a great trading day...with care!


Thursday, July 11, 2013

SPX - Crucial point

Since last Saturday I'm on vacation in the Trentino's mountains;
the internet connection is not always possible, and
it is likely that up to Monday, July 22, I will not be able to publish posts every day as usual.

The market is in a crucial point.
We could be close to a completion of the upward wave x .
A move above 1662 denies this preferred count.

Have a great trading day ... with care!



Tuesday, July 9, 2013

SPX Update

Since last Saturday I'm on vacation in the Trentino's mountains;
the internet connection is not always possible, for example yesterday after writing the post it was impossible to publish.
For this reason it is likely that up to Monday, July 22, I will not be able to publish posts every day as usual.

The rise, beyond my expectations, require an update of the counts.
Preferred count: the upward wave began on June 24th is the second wave x of a complex corrective pattern labeled minor wave x ; maximun target: 1653.
First alternate count: minor wave Alt:x is over June 24, so we are already in wave y

Interesting leading stocks with high Canslim rating in a flat base pattern:


Have a great trading day ... with care!


Wednesday, July 3, 2013

SPX - Sideways action

With the stock market that is closing early today and will close Thursday for the Independence Day holiday, I do not expect big moves.
This could be an opportunity to draw a sideways pattern (such as triangle or flat or three) but it would invalidate the preferred scenario.

Have a great trading day ... with care!


Monday, July 1, 2013

SPX - The preferred count is bearish

Short- term preferred count (bearish): SPX is in wave [c] of y of x ; in this case, the main doubt is that the last intraday move doesn't seem impulsive;

Short - term alternate count (bullish); we are in the first leg of a new upward wave.

Have a great trading day...with care!