"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

SPX - Elliott Wave scenarios with some uncertainties

The preferred bullish scenario proposed in recent days proved to be correct, even beyond the level of 1541, above which I wrote yesterday that I upgraded the wave count by November 16.
But perhaps, in hindsight,  it is not necessary.
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the achievement of this new top decrees the end of correction, unless it is developing a running flat or triangle or three.
Looking at the chart, does not appear that the last correction, in its most extensive form from February 19 to 26, is proportional with the bullish movement that preceded it, but if we compare the last correction with the previous correction (wave y from 12 to 31 December 2012) we note that:
> in terms of price, the two corrections are of similar amplitude (41 points against 45);
> in termes of time,they are connected with a Fibonacci relationship close to 38.2% (78 hours vs. 31).
Is this enough to say the last correction can reasonably be labeled as a wave of minor degree (or wave x) ?
Despite more than a perplexity, the minimum requirements are there.
But other problems arise; if the bottom of 26 February was of minor degree (wave x), the potential targets of the upward corrective wave in progress, wave z , were above the 1565-1570 resistance, which represents the excess of the absolute tops of SPX.
Based on these considerations, it becomes difficult to draw Elliott wave scenarios (as often happens at the end of cycles or waves of high degree).
New preferred scenario: bullish, we are in wave [c] of minute wave a of minor wave z .
First alternate count: bearish; we are close to the top of Alt:b wave of minor wave Alt:x  (running correction type).

Have a great trading day ... with care!!!


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