"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Friday, March 1, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD , USD/JPY - Update

The Currency pair with the scenario most confused among those considered.
My preferred count is a correction phase like b/x wave of minor degree.
The recent Parliamentary Elections in my country, with the unlikely chance to form a stable Government, could trigger a speculative attack to Italy and subsequently to the Euro.
Italy's public debt is approaching 2,000 billion Euros and reached 127% of GDP, a real nuclear bomb with a potential domino effect worldwide, worse than Lehman crisis.
Is Italy bound to default?  As an Italian, I hope not but the risk is always very high and now that Italians in the last election were not very wise, the only one who can stop it is Mr. Mario Draghi, president of ECB, at least for love of country !

According to forecast, there was the completion of wave 3 of  3 ; Tuesday, wave 4 is started; it's unlikely a retracement below 85.


The expected wave 4 of minor degree is in progress;
near a completion of the first wave a/w .

The multi-month wave [4] of primary degree is ending with a "throw-under" beyond a triangle pattern, so we could be close to a bottom reversal.



January 2, 2013 has completed the multi-year triangle wave [B] and started the downward wave [C] of primary degree, we might still be in the minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (1) .

After a crazy run the market could have ended the intermediate wave (3) and could be in the early stage of a multi-week correction in wave (4)

In the FOREX page you could see the long-term scenario on weekly charts and the previous short-term outlook on daily charts.

Have a great weekend ;-)


Some blog's readers reported me that this post appeared a few hours ago as a blank page. 
I can not explain what might have happened because, at this time of publishing, the post appears me as "draft" !
All that remains unexplained ... however I apologize to my readers :-/ ...



  1. Hi EFP:

    I'm spanish, I live in Madrid, Spain its the same, all politicians are thinking in their beneficts, all of them are thinking in the short term, we need another kind of politicians, but this is our problem

  2. Hi Manuel,
    it is just like that!
    After the Greece bailout, our two countries are most at risk; in the last Italian elections a week ago, a party that his first participation gets 25% of the votes thanks a program against the politics, and this means that people are tired of inefficiency, old politicians, but also of high austerity policies that do not help economic growth.
    I understand the position of Germany and of the countries of northern Europe, but an excessive austerity leads to social insurrection!
    The first of our two countries that will use the help of the ECB could condemn the other to default because it exhausts all the available resources.
    We hope that the situation will improve, but I do not believe it.