"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX, GOLD, CRUDE OIL


The Long-term Elliott Wave count (on weekly basis) considers, as preferred count, an imminent top of Cycle wave D, then a downward wave E that completes a Triangle wave [IV] of SuperCycle degree.

Short-term outlook

Preferred count: correction in minor wave x then final upward wave z ending intermediate wave (y) , primary wave [Y] and Cycle wave D by the second quarter 2013.
Alternate count: Wave E is finished in June 2012, now we are in a leading diagonal pattern which completes 1°Alt:(1) of the new bull market.

New Long-term Elliott Wave count:
we are in Primary wave [C] of Cycle wave IV of SuperCycle wave [V] .

Short-term outlook.

The previous count is invalidated; my new main short-term scenario requires that GOLD is completing the intermediate wave (w) of primary wave [C] , then the pullback of wave (x) .


The Long-term scenario is confirmed.

Preferred count: OIL is in downward intermediate wave (c) of primary [C] of Cycle wave A
Alternate count: OIL is in the mid stage of Alt:II of Cycle degree; Alt:[X] is near a completion, then upward move in wave Alt:[Y]

Short-term outlook.

Preferred scenario: bearish count; wave iii of 3 is started
Alternate scenario: final wave Alt:(e) of triangle wave Alt:[Y] , then the uptrend resumes.

Have a great weekend.



  1. Have you thought of different counting on DAX?

  2. Hi Marcin,
    Yes, I have considered it but it doesn't convince me for two orders of reasons:
    - in technical terms, there are three doubtful and "forced" counts (see the attached chart in my mail);
    - in fundamental terms, looking for GDP, inflation and others macro indicators, I think that the great bull market of '80's -'90's is a Supercycle wave [III] for all G-7 countries (I'm in doubt for Japan), so we are in SuperCycle wave [IV], while emerging markets are further back (China and Korea in wave III or V of [III], India and Brazil in wave III of [III], ecc...).

    See you soon