"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

SPX - Possible a temporay stop in the emerging uptrend

Not a good day.
It is rare to see a converging triangles that fails the breakout in direction of the previous trend , but yesterday has happened;
the ongoing pattern is strange, looks like a wedge shape and this is not good because very often they predict a reversal.
Even if I think that the intermediate trend remains bullish till proven otherwise, the  yesterday's movement is an important sign of weakness and needs some considerations:
> first, the 50 days MA is operating as resistance;
> second, the momentum shows a bearish double divergence (30 m), typical of diagonal triangle;
> third, the top reversal @ 1423 is a Fibonacci's price cluster, because:
   1423 = - 1.618% * (w - x) and = 0.618 * [ (y) - (x) ].
For these reasons it is possible that a temporary top of minute degree (or perhaps of minor degree) is in place.
Preferred count remains valid; a complex pattern [w]-[x]-[y] completes wave y
while my first alternate count (impulse move [1]-[2] of 1-2 ) loses odds and becomes the second one.
It's too early to tell if also the w-x-y pattern has completed the minor wave w, if so next target is 1384, but it's necessary to see the today market's action, and especially, if the up trendline supports prices.
Have a great trading day...with care!

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