"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Thursday, December 13, 2012

SPX - The first attack on the resistance has failed

Bad session yesterday.
After a good breakout in mid-session, the SPX has reversed and closed near the bottom, belying my re-count intraday; the first attack on the 1434 resistance has failed.
I trade a lot using, as pattern setup, the ascending triangles and the Cup with Handle, and last week I have seen too many of these patterns fail and this is a sign of underlying weakness; Bulls do not have enough conviction or enough munitions to break and maintain positions.
Counts are always unclear but it is possible that we have reached a top of wave [w] of y (double zig-zag pattern).
Important the seals of the supports @ 1424 and especially @ 1418 (Fibonacci price cluster: see 15 min. chart below).
Today Mike Sinibaldi wrote on Twitter: "Permabulls: please post a impulsive count since 11/16 low. I'm dying to see it."
I agree with him, and I wrote in my post on Saturday, December 8 (Elliott Wave Analysis and the KISS principle).
This is and remains a bear market rally, we have to understand of what degree (and what complex pattern it is, maybe a double or a triple zig-zag)
Have a great trading day...with care!




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