"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of NDX, USD/JPY, GOLD, CRUDE OIL


A year ago I never thought that the blog could have more than 16,000 contacts in the first year, given that, so far, it has not hosted any kind of advertising.
I am and remain an indipendent Elliott Wave trader, free from any influence, and this can be considered a guarantee of impartiality.
I sincerely thank all the readers that every day, or just once in a while, follow my posts.
Thank you very much !!! ;-)


My preferred count considers ongoing wave B of Cycle degree, even if the reversal is not far, and the last rise is a bear market rally, because the wave b/x is finishing and then follow the wave c/y to complete the bearish minor wave 4 .
This view, in the short term, is different from that of SPX and this worries me greatly, because that increase the odds that one of them is wrong.
1° Alternate scenario; on September 21 ended the wave (c) , and with it the wave B and then started a new long-term downtrend.
2° Alternate scenario; bullish, wave 4 is already over


USD/JPY is in a long-term downtrend, but the bottom is not so far.
I'm not talking about a reversal in a few weeks, but several months.
In June 2007, after a triangle that lasted almost nine years, begins the wave V of Cycle degree that seems to be emerging as an ending diagonal.
My preferred count expect that in October last year the Primary wave [3] is finished and started the wave [4] that is drawing the last wave (c) (unless it is another triangle a-b-c-d-e)
Using classic technical analysis, the pattern seems to be a rounding bottom.
My alternate count: the wave [5] has already been completed, and so has started a new multi-year uptrend of Cycle degree (this count prevails over 86)


The alternative scenario prevails; wave (2) is not ending.
The new alternative scenario is the old preferred one.
(see November 17th post)


The  wave (Alt: a) is over, now the wave 2  (Alt: b) is in progress like a sideways pattern;
the main trend remains bearish.
(last post November 17th; long term view in Intermarket Analysis page)

Have a great weekend!


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