"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Saturday, June 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Index

To summarize the fundamental situation, this is an excerpt from the article by Jason Ma on INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY of Monday, June 24 2013

Italy, Spain Yields Near Danger Levels On Fed Taper Talk
  Tracking Treasury Rate Spike

   Sovereign debt problem returns as negotiations stall on banking union

Fears of less Federal Reserve stimulus are pushing eurozone bond yields back up and threatening to reignite the debt crisis.
And central banks may not be willing or able to rein in yields either, putting the burden on elected officials to act.
 On Friday, yields for 10-year bonds from Spain and Italy hit the highest levels since early April, prompting the finance chiefs from both countries to downplay the rise as temporary.

 Reports that the International Monetary Fund could suspend Greek rescue payments added to the eurozone jitters. The IMF said there would be no financing problems as long as a progress review wraps up by late July.
And with German elections in September, Chancellor Angela Merkel is unlikely to commit large sums of money to other countries.........

From the technical point of view, analyzing the stock markets with Elliott and Fibonacci patterns, we can see the following situations:

The new preferred count (my old second alternate) considers this correction as minute wave y of b minor of (y) intermediate.
First alternate scenario: Alt:4 of Alt:(c)


the wave in progress could be a sideways such as a triangle or a three  a/w-b/x-c/y-d/x-e/z
the first alternate (1°Alt:) considers the top like the Cycle Top D .
the second alternate (2°Alt:) corresponds to the alternative long-term scenario shown in the weekly chart; we would be in Alt:(2) of Alt:I


this is the stock market where my long-term Outlook has changed;
it could already have reached the Cycle Top D , with a Primary wave [C] = Fibonacci's extension 0.618 of wave [A] from [B]
First alternate; we are in irregular Alt:(2) so the Top is still far.


Preferred scenario; still in uptrend of Primary degree; we are in wave a of wave (4) intermediate;
The Alternate scenarios is more complex.


This is one of the weaker stock market in Eurozone.
Preferred scenario: we are in wave y of intermediate wave (x) of upward wave [C]/[Y] of Primary degree.


Preferred count:  we are always in wave 4 minor of (c) intermediate;
Alternate count: we are in a new bearish wave of Primary degree.

Have a great weekend!


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