"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

SPX - Still bounce

Despite a small flash-crash of a few minutes, the market continues its intraday uptrend.
The alternative scenario is invalidatedthe breakout of 1574 increases the probability that the rebound will continue and  that the top of April 11 is not a Cycle top.
I remember that my long-term alternative scenario considers this top as  Alt:y wave of intermediate degree, in harmony with the bullish outlook of DJIA preferred scenario.
Main count: we are in [c]/[y] wave of b/x minute wave; perhaps a flat / three or triangle is underway.
Have a great trading day ... with care!



  1. So how do you think, where market is going now?

    1. Hi Pawel,
      Short-term preferred scenario; I confirm that I think we could be in [c]/[y] wave of b/x (red) minute wave; perhaps a sideways pattern, such as a flat, a three or a triangle of minor degree is in progress.
      Medium-long term:
      preferred scenario down wave(a/w)of intermediate degree = neutral/bearish (60%); the probability is still low for open short positions (the risks is too high);
      alternate scenario (Alt:x) of intermediate degree = neutral/bullish (40%).
      Instead for short-term trading is not very important where we are because there isn't a valid and clear pattern setup, so I stay out of the market as long as it is not built.