"All human activities have three distinctive features: pattern, time and ratio - all of which observe the Fibonacci Summation Series" (R.N. Elliott - "Nature's Law - the Secret of the Universe" - 1946)

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD , USD/JPY and APPLE

In Italy, in my Romagna, is a beautiful sunny day; under normal conditions I would do a walk in the woods with my family and my dog... but I'm sick with cold and fever...damn!


the upward trend seems to be stil in progress;
the bullish scenario is wave [c] of c of a ;
important resistance @ 1.349, that is also the 50% Fibonacci price retracement of wave (d) .

My preferred long term scenario is the same since several months; we should be in the intermediate wave (e) of a triangle wave [B]of primary degree.

New preferred scenario (the ex-alternate); the historical downtrend that has lasted over 30 years is ended, so the new SuperCycle Bull Market is starting.
We should be in the intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [1] of Cycle wave I  .



In the December 11th 2012 post, I wrote:
The Leader does not seem to have finished his fall.
My preferred scenario is for a intermediate wave (c) of primary wave [4] in progress, so the long term uptrend is still intact and we could see new highs. But it is early to open a long position.

AAPL has confirmed my preferred scenario making this week a great breakdown;
now we have to see if it stops his fall on the long term uptrendline or in the 420-430 area (near the 38.2% Fibonacci price retracement).
Any drop below these levels gives precedence to the alternative scenario: wave Alt:[a] of wave Alt: IV.
In this case, the probability that Apple's downtrend advances and kills the market's uptrend is very high.

Have a great weekend!

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