Still out to observe the market.
Have a great trading day ... with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Friday, April 5, 2013
SPX - Correction continues
The preferred scenario is always bearish.
Still out to observe the market.
Have a great trading day ... with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Still out to observe the market.
Have a great trading day ... with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Thursday, April 4, 2013
SPX - The strange pattern has bearish implications.
Yesterday I wrote: "The market shows some reluctance in the upward movement, the pattern formation is difficult to label, and the risk is the construction of a 5 wave ending diagonal. So it's needed more caution than usual".
Markets sold off aggressively on higher volume yesterday, so my preferred scenario was wrong and has been invalidated; the alternative seems to prevail.A recount is necessary but need a clarification; it's very difficult to understand where we could be.
New preferred count: yesterday wave a is ended, and starting correction in wave b of z .
There are several alternate counts: one of these considers the hypothesis that yesterday was reached the top of the Cycle (however this counting for now has low probability).
It is better not have long positions, to stay cash and out of the market.
Have a great trading day...with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
SPX - Strange pattern
The market shows some reluctance in the upward movement, the pattern formation is difficult to label, and the risk is the construction of a 5 wave ending diagonal.
So it's needed more caution than usual.
Preferred count (bullish): we are in the early stage of wave c of minute degree.
First alternate count (topping): Alt:[5] is close to completion like ending diagonal Alt:1-2-3-4-5
Have a great trading day ... with care !!!
ElwaveSurfer
So it's needed more caution than usual.
Preferred count (bullish): we are in the early stage of wave c of minute degree.
First alternate count (topping): Alt:[5] is close to completion like ending diagonal Alt:1-2-3-4-5
Have a great trading day ... with care !!!
ElwaveSurfer
Monday, April 1, 2013
SPX - Final bullish wave appears in progress.
The market has reached a new top.
Preferred scenario; bullish: wave b is ended; we are in the first wave [1] of c .
The first alternate has the same implications (new highs).
the second alternate considers this upward move the wave [b] of an irregular pattern [a-b-c] of wave b still in progress, so it is bearish.
Have a great trading day...with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Preferred scenario; bullish: wave b is ended; we are in the first wave [1] of c .
The first alternate has the same implications (new highs).
the second alternate considers this upward move the wave [b] of an irregular pattern [a-b-c] of wave b still in progress, so it is bearish.
Have a great trading day...with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Friday, March 29, 2013
EUROCRATS HAVE THROWN THE MASK and requiring the sacrifice of private investors
This week was consumed the fifth rescue in the European Union, the lightest in the facts but the heaviest in the form.
After spending more than 500 billion Euros in aid to Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain, it seems that the Troika wanted to spare 10 billion to save Cyprus.
It is not credible, simply lacked the will, and the justifications for the "elections in Germany" or "lesson to Russia," are weak and unsatisfactory.
The bailout of Cyprus provides for the closure of a bank, the restructuring of another, the cut of the savings of the bondholders, but above all, the compulsory levy on deposits.
A change of unprecedented strategy that becomes a terrifying precedent.
Many felt that this new bailout's model imposed by the Troika, was a "unique case", modeled on a small EU country, however "inconvenient" because it is the tax haven of the oligarchs Russians; the French President Hollande repeated it loudly, I do not know how convinced, perhaps to exorcise the problem.
But some doubt that it was not an isolated plan showed the outset; the Eurocrats would not have given birth to a hypothesis so disruptive if they had at least thought to experience a new "final solution" to the crisis of sovereign debt and the so-called "moral hazard."
Despite having shown little foresight in the management of previous crises, especially in the Greek, which cost much more than expected because of the inability to assess the adverse effects of an intervention reluctant and belated, it is difficult to think that "our" European leaders are so naive to don't predict the effects of such a choice.
In fact it is more likely that they wanted to test the market, and launch at the same time a heavy warning to Spain and Italy.
At Reuters, the President of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem says "If we want a sound financial sector, the only way is to say that those who have taken risks to manage them, and if it can not should not hire them."
Again: Thomas Straubhaar, a professor of economics at the University of Hamburg, wrote in Die Welt: "So far, the countries bankrupt could use the fear of a domino effect to blackmail Europe. Now, it is no longer possible because the euro-zone countries have in hand a new paper, which should not be afraid to use. "
After the usual comedy of denials, it turns out that there is a legislative proposal to the European Parliament which provides for the possibility of intervention on deposits over € 100,000.
Institutionalize a procedure of compulsory levy on current accounts and deposits means irreparably undermine the confidence of investors in the banks; it is to violate one of the sacred tenets of savings.
In the United States, immediately after the Lehman crisis, have so understood the gravity of the problem that the Government and the Fed intervened to create a network of protection on banks and depositors.
After spending more than 500 billion Euros in aid to Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain, it seems that the Troika wanted to spare 10 billion to save Cyprus.
It is not credible, simply lacked the will, and the justifications for the "elections in Germany" or "lesson to Russia," are weak and unsatisfactory.
The bailout of Cyprus provides for the closure of a bank, the restructuring of another, the cut of the savings of the bondholders, but above all, the compulsory levy on deposits.
A change of unprecedented strategy that becomes a terrifying precedent.
Many felt that this new bailout's model imposed by the Troika, was a "unique case", modeled on a small EU country, however "inconvenient" because it is the tax haven of the oligarchs Russians; the French President Hollande repeated it loudly, I do not know how convinced, perhaps to exorcise the problem.
But some doubt that it was not an isolated plan showed the outset; the Eurocrats would not have given birth to a hypothesis so disruptive if they had at least thought to experience a new "final solution" to the crisis of sovereign debt and the so-called "moral hazard."
Despite having shown little foresight in the management of previous crises, especially in the Greek, which cost much more than expected because of the inability to assess the adverse effects of an intervention reluctant and belated, it is difficult to think that "our" European leaders are so naive to don't predict the effects of such a choice.
In fact it is more likely that they wanted to test the market, and launch at the same time a heavy warning to Spain and Italy.
At Reuters, the President of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem says "If we want a sound financial sector, the only way is to say that those who have taken risks to manage them, and if it can not should not hire them."
Again: Thomas Straubhaar, a professor of economics at the University of Hamburg, wrote in Die Welt: "So far, the countries bankrupt could use the fear of a domino effect to blackmail Europe. Now, it is no longer possible because the euro-zone countries have in hand a new paper, which should not be afraid to use. "
After the usual comedy of denials, it turns out that there is a legislative proposal to the European Parliament which provides for the possibility of intervention on deposits over € 100,000.
Institutionalize a procedure of compulsory levy on current accounts and deposits means irreparably undermine the confidence of investors in the banks; it is to violate one of the sacred tenets of savings.
In the United States, immediately after the Lehman crisis, have so understood the gravity of the problem that the Government and the Fed intervened to create a network of protection on banks and depositors.
It will be said, States fails so also the banks!
True, but the banks were born that collect money deposited by savers and the grant of loans to households and businesses, investors pour their money in current accounts and deposits not because of the performance, now also really very least, how to the safety and readiness of redemption.
If the saver has the doubt that his money in the bank are not safe, the consequences can be devastating; panic, runs on banks to withdraw capital, banks that do not have sufficient cash and close in a few days, perhaps not reopen because insolvent, crack total system, public disorder and worse.
The Government of Nicosia launched by decree restrictions on withdrawals of various types (cash, checks, cash, deposit accounts, credit cards) to avoid the risk of a capital flight that could destabilize the banking system, and have been introduced the first eurozone exchange controls.
The reopening of banks in Cyprus after a 12-day lockout, there were long queues at the counters but a relative and unexpected calm. Obviously they still need to digest the effects of what is happening to them, and that the markets have already guessed.
From now, the problem for the countries at risk will be not only represented by the heavy conditionality imposed in case of resorting to aid and shield anti-spread, it will be like someone has successfully written "the sacrifice required of the private investor"
ElwaveSurfer
True, but the banks were born that collect money deposited by savers and the grant of loans to households and businesses, investors pour their money in current accounts and deposits not because of the performance, now also really very least, how to the safety and readiness of redemption.
If the saver has the doubt that his money in the bank are not safe, the consequences can be devastating; panic, runs on banks to withdraw capital, banks that do not have sufficient cash and close in a few days, perhaps not reopen because insolvent, crack total system, public disorder and worse.
The Government of Nicosia launched by decree restrictions on withdrawals of various types (cash, checks, cash, deposit accounts, credit cards) to avoid the risk of a capital flight that could destabilize the banking system, and have been introduced the first eurozone exchange controls.
The reopening of banks in Cyprus after a 12-day lockout, there were long queues at the counters but a relative and unexpected calm. Obviously they still need to digest the effects of what is happening to them, and that the markets have already guessed.
From now, the problem for the countries at risk will be not only represented by the heavy conditionality imposed in case of resorting to aid and shield anti-spread, it will be like someone has successfully written "the sacrifice required of the private investor"
ElwaveSurfer
Thursday, March 28, 2013
SPX - Elliott Wave update
The wait for a new bullish movement continues, but it is necessary that the breakout takes place as soon as possible, preferably today or the next session, otherwise the scenario deteriorates in the negative direction.
I confirm the scenarios presented in yesterday's post (to which I refer also to the hourly chart).
I confirm the scenarios presented in yesterday's post (to which I refer also to the hourly chart).
Have a great trading day...with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
SPX - Waiting for a bullish breakout
The market always shows an amazing strength and seems it doesn't want to retrace.
To two counts presented in yesterday's post , I add an option, the second alternate count: b wave is finished @ 1546.
The substance does not change, rather appears enhanced; the scenarios of an impending bullish breakout become more likely.
To two counts presented in yesterday's post , I add an option, the second alternate count: b wave is finished @ 1546.
The substance does not change, rather appears enhanced; the scenarios of an impending bullish breakout become more likely.
Have a great trading day...with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
SPX - Sideways pattern remains in progress
The failed breakout has reduced the probability that b wave is ended, so a recount is necessary.
The new preferred scenario becomes the previous first alternate (slightly bearish); b wave is a sideways pattern (triangle or three) in progress with w wave of wave [c]/[y] in its mid-move; target = 1538.
The alternate count (bullish), that considers an Alt:[4] of wave a , is becoming less likely because it seems disproportionate with wave [2] , unless it was finished March 21, and because it appears as a "three" rather than a "five".
Have a great trading day ... with care!
ElwaveSurfer
The new preferred scenario becomes the previous first alternate (slightly bearish); b wave is a sideways pattern (triangle or three) in progress with w wave of wave [c]/[y] in its mid-move; target = 1538.
The alternate count (bullish), that considers an Alt:[4] of wave a , is becoming less likely because it seems disproportionate with wave [2] , unless it was finished March 21, and because it appears as a "three" rather than a "five".
Have a great trading day ... with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Monday, March 25, 2013
SPX - Be ready for a new upward move
b wave could be finished because we have reached the minimum target time, the Fibonacci time projection (a * 38.2%).
Preferred scenario: b wave in ended with a complex corrective pattern [w]-[x]-[y] and c wave is starting;
First alternate scenario (new); b wave in not ended because it is a triangle and the waves [d] and [e] are still under construction;
Second alternate scenario (2°Alt: the old first), we are in Alt:3 wave of Alt:[5] .
Preferred scenario: b wave in ended with a complex corrective pattern [w]-[x]-[y] and c wave is starting;
First alternate scenario (new); b wave in not ended because it is a triangle and the waves [d] and [e] are still under construction;
Second alternate scenario (2°Alt: the old first), we are in Alt:3 wave of Alt:[5] .
Have a great trading day...with care!
ElwaveSurfer
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Elliott Wave Analysis of DJIA, DAX, GOLD, CRUDE OIL and major Currency pairs
DJIA
The corrective bull market is still in progress; according to the preferred scenario, the v wave of minor wave a is close to completion (for long-term scenario, see weekly chart on March 09, 2013 post, or US Index Long-term view page)
Preferred count: getting closer to the top of Cycle degree D ; DAX is in minute wave x of minor wave z ending the intermediate wave (y) of primary wave [Y] .
Alternate count: the new bull market is already started, we are in the final stage of leading diagonal Alt:(1) (for long-term scenario, see weekly chart on March 09, 2013 post)
The fear for Cyprus's bailout and the achievement of the long-term up-trendline seems to have stopped the descent; perhaps GOLD have reached the bottom of intermediate (w) and a corrective upward move is starting.
OIL remain in a controversial scenario (very difficult to trade...)
-------
German DAX
Preferred count: getting closer to the top of Cycle degree D ; DAX is in minute wave x of minor wave z ending the intermediate wave (y) of primary wave [Y] .
Alternate count: the new bull market is already started, we are in the final stage of leading diagonal Alt:(1) (for long-term scenario, see weekly chart on March 09, 2013 post)
------
GOLD
The fear for Cyprus's bailout and the achievement of the long-term up-trendline seems to have stopped the descent; perhaps GOLD have reached the bottom of intermediate (w) and a corrective upward move is starting.
------
CRUDE OIL
OIL remain in a controversial scenario (very difficult to trade...)
----------------
In the FOREX page you could see the long-term scenario on weekly charts,
previous short-term outlook on daily charts, and the previous counts on 4 hours charts.
EUR/USD
I've updated the preferred count; wave w of b/x wave of minor degree seems to be ended, so a rebound could start.
----------
EUR/GBP
The alternate count prevails; the top is minor wave 3 and the down move is the
first wave w of wave 4 .
The new alternate scenario; wave Alt:c is ended and so also intermediate wave Alt:(w).
The alternate count prevails; the top is minor wave 3 and the down move is the
first wave w of wave 4 .
The new alternate scenario; wave Alt:c is ended and so also intermediate wave Alt:(w).
----------
EUR/JPY
The preferred scenario remain bullish; we could be in the wave 2 of wave 5 of minor degree.
----------
AUD/USD
The preferred scenario (very bullish) was correct: this market has moved upward in wave [v] of 1 of 1 of (1)
Alternate scenario; the intermediate triangle pattern is still underway.
(chart of two weeks ago, still valid...)
(new chart updated....)
----------
GBP/USD
Preferred scenario is confired; wave 4 of minute degree is ending with the completion of [c] wave of a zig-zag pattern, so the downward move will continue.
(chart of two weeks ago, still valid...)
-----------
USD/JPY
From last post; the intermediate wave (3) is not ended, the target is between 98.8 - 99.86, where the minor wave 5 may be completed, and and this could happen as early as next week.
Preferred scenario; we could be in the wave 2 of wave 5 of minor degree of intermediate wave (3) .
Alternate scenario (neutral/bearish); the wave 5 is already finished and so still the intermediate wave (3) ; now we are in the wave a/w of w. (4)
Preferred scenario; we could be in the wave 2 of wave 5 of minor degree of intermediate wave (3) .
Alternate scenario (neutral/bearish); the wave 5 is already finished and so still the intermediate wave (3) ; now we are in the wave a/w of w. (4)
Have a great weekend ;-)
ElwaveSurfer
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