Elliott wave analysis of NDX

NDX is the weakest of the U.S. stock market indexes (also due to the Apple's collapse), the others are very close to their tops (and RUT has already exceeded them).

Long-term view.
Preferred scenario:
NDX has not yet reached the top of this Cycle Bear Market rally (wave B) that could be in 3300-3400 area where there is a new Fibonacci price cluster.
First alternate scenario:
the top has occured September 21, 2012 at 2878, where these was the first Fibonacci price cluster.

Short-term view.
Preferred count: NDX is in wave [iii] of 1 of 5
First alternate count: we are in Alt:b/x of wave 4

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Possible top of minute degree in a Fibonacci time cluster.

The preferred scenario, after being weakened by the Wednesday's move, was denied from that of yesterday.

The new preferred scenario considers that occured,  on January 30,  the top of wave y , and now we are in the wave [a]/[w]  of the second wave x of a double zig-zag w-x-y-x-z  .
This count would be confirmed by an interesting Fibonacci time cluster at the top of the wave y (which unfortunately I have only seen today) between 100% (bottom wave x - bottom wave x) = red vertical line (dashed) and 261,8% (top wave w - bottom wave x) = white vertical  line (dashed).

Another confirmation is required, with the lack of new highs within a few days.

The new first alternate scenario: we are in Alt:[4] of Alt:c
Possible targets: in 1487-1486 area there is the first Fibonacci price cluster, the second is in 1481-1480 area.

The first alternate count could also end today close to 1492 (but this is a hypothesis with low probability).

However, the main trend remain bullish so, even if a top may have occured,  I don't open short position on stocks (may be in intraday ES trading).

Have a great trading day...with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

SPX - The second bullish wave appears in progress

The market has moved as expected;
wave [b] seems to be over close to a Fibonacci price and time cluster (see 5 minutes chart), so the wave [c] of a zig-zag pattern appears in progress.
This is generally a good opportunity to make low-risk trading  (I opened a long position on UPRO @ 89.75); a confirmation is required with the breakout of 1448.
Alternative scenario (Alt:) ; yesterday's bottom is only the wave w of [b]
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The first attack on the resistance has failed

Bad session yesterday.
After a good breakout in mid-session, the SPX has reversed and closed near the bottom, belying my re-count intraday; the first attack on the 1434 resistance has failed.
I trade a lot using, as pattern setup, the ascending triangles and the Cup with Handle, and last week I have seen too many of these patterns fail and this is a sign of underlying weakness; Bulls do not have enough conviction or enough munitions to break and maintain positions.
Counts are always unclear but it is possible that we have reached a top of wave [w] of y (double zig-zag pattern).
Important the seals of the supports @ 1424 and especially @ 1418 (Fibonacci price cluster: see 15 min. chart below).
Today Mike Sinibaldi wrote on Twitter: "Permabulls: please post a impulsive count since 11/16 low. I'm dying to see it."
I agree with him, and I wrote in my post on Saturday, December 8 (Elliott Wave Analysis and the KISS principle).
This is and remains a bear market rally, we have to understand of what degree (and what complex pattern it is, maybe a double or a triple zig-zag)
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

SPX - Still bullish

Still bullish with fast start;
slight change in my preferred count;
there is still at least another upward wave [w] or [Alt: 3], [y]  target @ 1450 due to a
Fibonacci price cluster; 1450 = (0.618 * w  ) + w and y = w from x
Only the 2°Alt: consider the possibility of an istant small downward.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Example of Elliott Wave intraday trade

From my premarket post, I suppose yesterday ended a 5 wave of [a ](preferred count) or 3 wave of b wave  (2nd alternate count) or 5 wave of c (1st alternate count).
All three scenarios have in common the assumption that I'm waiting for an impulsive wave in 5 movements ( a ,  2°Alt c  ,  1 ).
So I expect wave [1], which is in 5, and then there is an irregular [2] , a 3-3-5 pattern, which ends near a Fibonacci price and time cluster; at this point the situation from unclear becomes more clear. I have the full coincidence (very rare) of: pattern + price + time + momentum + cycle;
now my strategy is to wait for an upswing breakout and open a long position.
Target + 10, stop loss - 4.
A risky but successfull (and lucky) trade that only Elliott wave and Fibonacci ratios can offer.
See you tomorrow.

ElwaveSurfer

I follow the suggestion of Glenn Neely, I use cash data to analyze market behavior ; this involves less difficulty in deciphering an Elliott Wave pattern.

SPX - Uncertain situation

The situation is still extremely uncertain.
According to my preferred scenario, the correction is not over; even if the last bearish movement seems impulsive, it appears too short (in time) to be qualified as minuette degree.
However the last minor Elliott wave pattern could also be, like a first alternative, a completed flat a-b-c or an ongoing triangle a-b-c-d-e
The 1428-1425 is a ​​Fibonacci price cluster area and a reaction is possible.
I stay very cautious.
Have a great trading day...with care!

SPX - Hunting of "x" bottom requires caution

As expected, the market has declined; the hypothesis of triangle in wave x was correct.
Now the first 2 scenarios that I expect for the end of the x wave are as follows:
- Preferred scenario: the index reached the first Fibonacci price cluster in 1435-1434 area in mid-session today at the yellow vertical where there is a micro Fibonacci time clusters;
- First alternate count: the index falls again until 1428-1426 area where there is a second Fibonacci price cluster.
Below, it is necessary change the count.
The bad news is the pattern; the suspected downwave y started yesterday seems to have an  impulse structure, which is not possible in a complex pattern, and this element deserves careful!
Have a great trading day ... with care!!!

SPX - Correction doesn't seem complete

No changes to the scenario pointed out yesterday; correction continues.
The  assumed count would be confirmed if the bearish move ended, at least, in the black area of the yellow rectangle (chart 2), at the crossing of Fibonacci price and time clusters (1446-1426 / 20-21 September).
Have a great trading day...with care!

SPX - Looking for a minute bottom to bounce....

The correction continues, markets were lower on lighter volume;
next target always in 1390 area, and the second target in 1365 area, where there are two Fibonacci price cluster.
Up to 5 September the market is in a Fibonacci time cluster, but it lacks the completion of the pattern (very unclear) to give it value.
Today important meeting for the Fed summit; Bernanke's words can pushing or freezing the market, .....which may have already considered all.
Have a great trading day..with care!

 
La correzione prosegue ; prossimo obiettivo sempre in area 1390, e secondo obiettivo in area 1365, dove ci sono due Fibonacci price cluster.
Fino al 5 settembre il mercato è in una zona di Fibonacci time cluster, ma manca il completamento del pattern per dargli valore.
Oggi giornata importante per il summit Fed; le parole di Bernanke possono spingere o gelare il mercato, che forse ha già scontato tutto.
Buon trading...e prudenza!