Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Indexes

Referring the main world Stock Market Indexes, my outlook remains bearish on the short-term time frame.

DJIA:

in the best of cases, we are still in wave 2 minute of c minor of (y) intermediate.

First alternate scenario: Alt:4 ;

Second alternate scenario: the top was wave Alt:a , so now we are in Alt:b minor wave; if this view prevails the correction will be larger in terms of time and/or price.

NASDAQ: still wave [ii] of 3 minute of 5 minor

GERMAN DAX : hold, but I still think that it is in wave x minor of (z) intermediate

LONDON FTSE 100: wave 2 minor of (3) intermediate or of Alt:(5)

ZURICH SMI - the top was wave (3) intermediate, with a beautiful 1.618 Fibonacci's extension of wave (1) from (2) ; first target between 7500 and 7300 (that is the wave four of minor degree)

TOKYO NIKKEI -  preferred count: the top was wave 3 minor of (c) intermediate; here, the index has reached the maximum of possible target for wave 3, that is 2.618 Fibonacci's external extension of wave 1 from top 1.

 

 

SPX intraday update

 

Hard sell-off in the late Friday's session,  with volume rising.

This confirms my bearish outlook.

Preferred count: we are in wave [c] of x of z minor.

The first alternate is passed; the new alternate: the top was the Cycle reversal.

 

 

 Have a great trading day ... with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Be ready for a new upward move

b wave could be finished because we have reached the minimum target time, the Fibonacci time projection (a * 38.2%).
Preferred scenario: b wave in ended with a complex corrective pattern [w]-[x]-[y] and c wave is starting;
First alternate scenario (new); b wave in not ended because it is a triangle and the waves [d] and [e] are still under construction;
Second alternate scenario (2°Alt: the old first), we are in Alt:3 wave of  Alt:[5] .

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The first top is achieved

In the Friday post I wrote: "Between today and the next trading session could be completed the wave [5] , then starts the pullback in wave b " but still yesterday, even if I wrote "the pattern is not clear," I confirmed the main scenario (bullish), that the market's behavior has sanctioned to be wrong.
The first alternate scenario prevails; the top of minute wave a of minor wave z was achieved Friday at 1563.62, less than two points from the lower zone of the target (1565-1570), and I admit to have recognized it with a day late.
The corrective wave b is now underway; the first down movement retrace close to 1545.13, exactly the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of previous impulse wave, but its completion will require some days.
Have a great trading day ...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD , USD/JPY and APPLE

In Italy, in my Romagna, is a beautiful sunny day; under normal conditions I would do a walk in the woods with my family and my dog... but I'm sick with cold and fever...damn!

EUR / USD

 

the upward trend seems to be stil in progress;

the bullish scenario is wave [c] of c of a ;

important resistance @ 1.349, that is also the 50% Fibonacci price retracement of wave (d) .

My preferred long term scenario is the same since several months; we should be in the intermediate wave (e) of a triangle wave [B]of primary degree.

USD/JPY

 

New preferred scenario (the ex-alternate); the historical downtrend that has lasted over 30 years is ended, so the new SuperCycle Bull Market is starting.
We should be in the intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [1] of Cycle wave I  .

 

 

 

APPLE

In the December 11th 2012 post, I wrote:
The Leader does not seem to have finished his fall.
My preferred scenario is for a intermediate wave (c) of primary wave [4] in progress, so the long term uptrend is still intact and we could see new highs. But it is early to open a long position.

AAPL has confirmed my preferred scenario making this week a great breakdown;
now we have to see if it stops his fall on the long term uptrendline or in the 420-430 area (near the 38.2% Fibonacci price retracement).
Any drop below these levels gives precedence to the alternative scenario: wave Alt:[a] of wave Alt: IV.
In this case, the probability that Apple's downtrend advances and kills the market's uptrend is very high.
 

Have a great weekend!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - The upward movement needs to take a break

Stocks end choppy session flat.
On the downside, "Bernanke warns Congress to avoid fiscal cliff,... to raise the federal debt limit to prevent the govenment from defaulting on Treasurys debt, but also... to reduce the federal debt on the long run to ensure economic growth and stability" (The Motley Fool); inaction is already affecting the economy.
On the upside, housing starts at 4-Year High.
SPX has touched the first strong resistance which is equal to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last bearish Elliott wave of minute degree (b or Alt:3)
Yesterday, the intraday pullback was too small, in time and price, to believe that wave [2] or [b] is completed, so I think that tomorrow can be another sideways or slightly bearish session; the market could take a break to rest and reflect.
It would be interesting, for trading purpose, if the index builds a flat base that forms the right shoulder of a potential  H&S pattern, but with "if" it is not possible to trade in a profitable manner;
it's better respect the old rule "trade what you see and not what you think", so I wait outside to see what the market really does.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Rebound in progress

The market is experiencing a rebound near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of intermediate wave (y).
At this point, or the market has reached a bottom of intermediate degree and begins a new uptrend (wave (z) or, as a first alternative scenario (Alt:) , is finished the wave 3
The second alternative scenario (2°Alt:, in the 15 minute chart) , for now with very low probability, is compatible with a market crash.
Now it is important to check the structure of the bounce....not think about catching a possible bottom!
It 's still early to open long positions, the trend remain bearish.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The downtrend is incomplete

The downtrend is not complete.
I wait at least the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, then it is necessary to observe the subsequent reaction to see if the bearish wave is finished or if it prevails the alternate count.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Slightly bullish

The index finally broke upward and stopped to Fibonacci projection @ 1417 (= 1 * a / w + b / x).
The pattern seems incomplete and it must consider that:
1) the maximum in 1422 becomes very close;
2) the Fibonacci time clusters of 29 August / 5 September approaches.
What can we expect?
 As always ... everything and its opposite !
However, looking at Elliott Wave Principle, there are the primary prerequisites for a primary top instead of looking at stock leaders there are signs of continuation patterns rather than reversal patterns, so we can not exclude an attack to the top of the tops in 1550 area.
But...let's go step by step, forward with quiet;  caution is even more important.
Have a great trading day...with care!

finalmente l'indice ha rotto  al rialzo e si è fermato to Fibonacci projection 1417 (= 1* a/w + b/x).
il pattern sembra incompleto a è necessario considerare che:
1°) il massimo a 1422 si fa molto vicino
2°) si avvicina anche il Fibonacci time clusters del 29 agosto/ 5 settembre.
Cosa dobbiamo aspettarci?
come sempre tutto...e il suo contrario.
Tuttavia, per the Elliott Wave Principle, ci sono i presupposti per primary top , invece guardando i titoli leaders non ci sono segnali di inversione quanto piuttosto più pattern di continuazione, così non si può escludere un tentativo di attacco al massimo dei massimi 1550
Ma andiamo avanti per gradi e con calma; la cautela è sempre più importante.
Buon trading ...e prudenza!

SPX - 2 months of jumps up...or exceeds or exhausts

2 months of very tough market, in a trading range of 80 points, 5 rises alternate with 4 declines, tilt slightly bullish. Very stressful situation.
I do not know how you feel; I feel like I'm in a trap in a cage and try to jump up with the springs at the foot, and every time I try to push a stronger but do not pass the barrier and I'm more tired than before .
My first alternative scenario has prevailed; the market has scored a new ascending top, breaking  0.786 Fibonacci's resistance; it's also interesting to note that the index is stopped now on a new crossing between the uptrendline of ascending tops and the Fibonacci extension 0,618 * [a] + [b].
My feeling is that the market is trying to give the final impulse, but I do not know if it finds enough strength.
I stand still and I wait; I do not realize gains but, at least, I do not lose money (and this strategy, in the last two weeks, has proved quite successful)
Have a nice and relaxing weekend.... and great monday with care!

2 mesi di mercato molto duro, in un trading range di 80 punti; 5 rialzi alternato da 4 ribassi, inclinazione lievemente rialzista.
Situazione molto stressante.
Io non so come vi sentite voi, ma io mi sento come fossi in un trappola in una gabbia e cerco di saltare fuori con delle molle ai piedi; ogni volta provo con una spinta più forte ma non supero la barriera e mi ritrovo più stanco di prima.
Ha prevalso lo scenario alternativo; il mercato ha segnato un nuovo massimo crescente rompendo la resistenza di Fibonacci a 0.786;è interessante vedere che l'indice si è fermato, adesso, su un nuovo incrocio tra la uptrendline che collega i massimi crescenti e l'estensione di Fibonacci 0.618 * [a] + [b].
La mia sensazione è che cerchi di dare l'ultimo slancio ma non so se trova la forza sufficiente.
Sto fermo e aspetto; non realizzo guadagni ma almeno non perdo denaro (e questa strategia nelle ultime due settimane si è rivelata abbastanza vincente)
Un buon weekend rilassante.... e un buon lunedì prudente!