Elliott Wave analysis of SPX , DAX , EUR/USD: the upward move is in progress

 SPX

This is one of those situations in which the preferred scenario of short and medium term (on hourly chart, bullish from pre-market November 19th) is correct while the very short-term preferred scenario (on 15 minutes chart, slightly bearish) is wrong.

Today I lost a good opportunity for a nice ES intraday trade on the long side, but the important thing is that the main trend remains bullish, because I'm focusing my trading strategy on buy setups to open long positions on leading stocks.
Yesterday a blog's reader asked me: why did you not trade on the long side in the opening session of November 19th when you predicted that 16th had been the end of correction?
Because that was just a hypothesis without confirmation, the trend was still bearish, and because I don't trade with a reversal approach, but on pullbacks and particularly on breakouts.
Now the uptrend resumes, even if is still weak, my preferred scenario of short and medium term remains bullish and I think that the market is in wave [3] of wave a or 1 , but this requires a confirmation from volume and FTD.

As alternate scenario I discarded the old one (because the Alt:4 rises above the bottom of Alt:1 and this is impossible in terms of Elliott wave in impulse patterns) and my new alternate count is an [a]-[b]-[c] , with [c] in progress, of a minute wave of x minor wave.

 

Yesterday I opened the first long (but small) position in stocks; I purchased MWIV (CANSLIM composite rating 97, interesting flat base pattern with bullish breakout even though volume could be better)

 

 

My Stock Watch List for the next week is in "US stocks" page.

 

 

DAX

Preferred scenario:
wave x is ended with a complex [w]-[x]-[y] ( [x] wave like an expanding triangle) and last upward wave y is in progress, to complete the  (b/x) wave, then starting a new intermediate bear market cycle.
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

 

EUR/USD

Preferred scenario:
EUR / USD has followed the preferred scenario posted 15 days ago, and started the third wave c
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - New Elliott wave count

New preferred scenario on a daily basis (see "U.S. Index Long-term view" page);
it was my first alternate count, in which the top of the September 14th becomes (y) intermediate wave, so the corrective movement from that level is (x) wave of a double complex (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z).
There is not a big change in  substance, only the degree of the last corrective wave that is raised by one level.
New preferred count: November  9th began the wave [4] of wave c then the market reaches a new bottom close to 1360-1370, completing c wave and y.
1° Alternate count: the wave c is finished Friday in 1372 where there is this Fibonacci price projection: wave c = (0.618 * a) + a; a new uptrend resumes.
2° Alternate count: the downtrend is only half way, the bottom on Friday is only the wave (i) of  3 of [3] of iii  ( this scenario is invalid above 1403).
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The downtrend accelerates

The bearish movement continues increasing its strength;
the market is probably in wave (iii) of 3 of [3] or [c]
I think the bottom is not so close.
The Elliott Wave is telling me that the trend is bearish, even Dan Zanger and Chris Kacher, two traders who follow, are also bearish for a couple of weeks, so it is useless and also dangerous open long positions on stocks, too risky to open short positions, better to stay outside and wait.
Instead it's possibile to do intraday SPX future trading, where I'm focusing my energy.
Have a great trading day ... with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Dangerous situation or great opportunity

The yesterday's low drilled that of October 12 so it's necessary a new count.
Visually, the SPX chart shows a sideways pattern well alligned which generally has potential bullish.
The real problem is the Elliott wave counting, because the last bullish wave and the last bearish look like two five wave patterns and this would only be possible if the first impulse is the final wave of a flat and the second impulse is the initial wave of a zig-zag or a downward impulse.
Or one of the two impulse counts is wrong.
The situation is very uncertain, the market could offer a wonderful buy opportunity or hide a bear trap or could be near a cliff.
Too much risk, I'm out and look.
Have a great trading day...with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Example of Elliott Wave intraday trade

From my premarket post, I suppose yesterday ended a 5 wave of [a ](preferred count) or 3 wave of b wave  (2nd alternate count) or 5 wave of c (1st alternate count).
All three scenarios have in common the assumption that I'm waiting for an impulsive wave in 5 movements ( a ,  2°Alt c  ,  1 ).
So I expect wave [1], which is in 5, and then there is an irregular [2] , a 3-3-5 pattern, which ends near a Fibonacci price and time cluster; at this point the situation from unclear becomes more clear. I have the full coincidence (very rare) of: pattern + price + time + momentum + cycle;
now my strategy is to wait for an upswing breakout and open a long position.
Target + 10, stop loss - 4.
A risky but successfull (and lucky) trade that only Elliott wave and Fibonacci ratios can offer.
See you tomorrow.

ElwaveSurfer

I follow the suggestion of Glenn Neely, I use cash data to analyze market behavior ; this involves less difficulty in deciphering an Elliott Wave pattern.

SPX - Uncertain situation

The situation is still extremely uncertain.
According to my preferred scenario, the correction is not over; even if the last bearish movement seems impulsive, it appears too short (in time) to be qualified as minuette degree.
However the last minor Elliott wave pattern could also be, like a first alternative, a completed flat a-b-c or an ongoing triangle a-b-c-d-e
The 1428-1425 is a ​​Fibonacci price cluster area and a reaction is possible.
I stay very cautious.
Have a great trading day...with care!

SPX - Breaking up and then pullback down; critical phase

The SPX hit 4-year high intraday but reversed immediately; even some leading stocks reversed or retraced badly (eg AAPL, MLNX, SSYS, AMZN ...) and gold break up.
These three facts are a sign of weakness and indecision, the current phase is critical.
The market must find the strength to give a new boost as soon as possible or set an orderly pullback.
New Elliott Wave preferred count (up to one degree by the previous top).
Top reversal or x wave of complex pattern w-x-y-x-z?
Have a great trading day...with care!!!!!

L'SPX ha raggiunto un massimo intraday a 4 anni poi ha subito invertito;  anche alcune leading stocks hanno invertito o ritracciato brutalmente (es: AAPL, MLNX, SSYS, AMZN ...) e l'oro ha rotto al rialzo.
Questi tre fatti sono un segnale di debolezza e di indecisione; la fase attuale è critica.
Il mercato deve trovare la forza di dare una nuova spinta quanto prima oppure di impostare un pullback ordinato.
Aggiornato il conteggio di Elliott preferito  (alzato di un grado dal precedente top).
Abbiamo raggiunto il massimo o ci aspetta una onda x di un complex pattern tipo w-x-y-x-z?
Buon trading..e molta prudenza!!!!!

SPX - Slightly bullish

The index finally broke upward and stopped to Fibonacci projection @ 1417 (= 1 * a / w + b / x).
The pattern seems incomplete and it must consider that:
1) the maximum in 1422 becomes very close;
2) the Fibonacci time clusters of 29 August / 5 September approaches.
What can we expect?
 As always ... everything and its opposite !
However, looking at Elliott Wave Principle, there are the primary prerequisites for a primary top instead of looking at stock leaders there are signs of continuation patterns rather than reversal patterns, so we can not exclude an attack to the top of the tops in 1550 area.
But...let's go step by step, forward with quiet;  caution is even more important.
Have a great trading day...with care!

finalmente l'indice ha rotto  al rialzo e si è fermato to Fibonacci projection 1417 (= 1* a/w + b/x).
il pattern sembra incompleto a è necessario considerare che:
1°) il massimo a 1422 si fa molto vicino
2°) si avvicina anche il Fibonacci time clusters del 29 agosto/ 5 settembre.
Cosa dobbiamo aspettarci?
come sempre tutto...e il suo contrario.
Tuttavia, per the Elliott Wave Principle, ci sono i presupposti per primary top , invece guardando i titoli leaders non ci sono segnali di inversione quanto piuttosto più pattern di continuazione, così non si può escludere un tentativo di attacco al massimo dei massimi 1550
Ma andiamo avanti per gradi e con calma; la cautela è sempre più importante.
Buon trading ...e prudenza!