FOREX

I trade in stocks, stock index futures and stock index options.

I don't trade in forex, commodities, bonds.

But I believe that a techno-fundamental approach and an intermarket analysis can be very usefull for medium-term trading and long-term investiment.

On this page, I start to post the Elliott Wave scenarios of major Currency pairs, taken from the posts published in the corresponding dates.

ElwaveSurfer

Febraury 23, 2013

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May, 25th 2013

USD/JPY

Main count: the wave 4 minute of 5 minor of (3) intermediate of [1] Primary could be ended; final bullish upward move.
Alternate count: a short wave Alt:5 minor is finished so also the wave (3) or Alt:(c)

EUR/JPY

The count has become cloudy.
Main count: wave [ii] is ending so the wave 3 starts; target 139
Alternate count: we have already reached the top of wave Alt:(1)

GBP/USD

the expected downward move has continued
We should be in the pullback of wave 2 minute of 3 minor of (1) of [C] .
Very interesting the Fibonacci price projections in the 60 minutes chart.

EUR/GBP

In the last post I wrote: "The alternate scenario prevails; it's likely the completion of the corrective downward wave c/y of (b)/(x); "
the y wave seems to be ended; now we should be in the second wave x of a double three pattern.

EUR/USD

Still contrasted and unclear trend, with no interesting setup.
We could be in upward [x] wave of downward wave y of b/x .

AUD/USD

This currency pair seems to have not yet reached the bottom so the probability that the preferred count is incorrect increase.

Are we in the wave 4 of c of (e) ?

Have a great weekend ;-)

ElwaveSurfer

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May 11, 2013

USD/JPY

Main count: what's incredible impulsive wave!

Bullish: we are in wave [iii] of 3 minute of 5 minor of (3) intermediate of [1] Primary; target 105.60.

EUR/JPY

See the 240 minutes chart; there is a good buy point last Thursday May 9 on the breakout of the flat of wave 2 of 5 of (1) (or in alternate scenario, of the triangle Alt:4 of 5 ); target 139.

GBP/USD

Very interesting setup.

After the rebound of wave 2 minor , we should be in the impulsive wave 3 of (1) of [C] .

EUR/GBP

The alternate scenario prevails; it's likely the completion of the corrective downward wave  c/y of (b)/(x); this currency pair is looking for a support on the  50% Fibonacci's retracement; if it will be broken down,  drop at least until 0.828.

EUR/USD

Contrasted and unclear trend, with no interesting setup.
It's likely the completion of downward wave y of b/x .

AUD/USD

My main bullish scenario is been denied, the triangular wave [4] is not yet completed.

The down move of the last week gives preference to alternate bearish count, that considers wave 3 of c of (e) in progress.

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April, 13 2013

EUR/USD

It's remains the Currency pair with the scenario most confused among those considered.

My preferred count is a correction phase like b/x wave of minor degree;
a first down move as wave w of minuette degree seems to be ended, so a bounce in wave x is in progress (now we could be in wave [a]/[w] ) .

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EUR/GBP

I have changed my preferred scenario because there was a retracement below 85;
the new main count is always bullish (wave 5 minor of wave (1) of intermediate degree), but pay attention: the bounce doesn't appear as an impulse pattern...
The first alternate scenario is bearish: the uptrend (Alt: (x) ) is over; now we are in Alt:b/x of Alt: (z)

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EUR/JPY

My Preferred bullish scenario has been confirmed but the upward move was so fast that the target (a Fibonacci price cluster) is already achieved so I think that wave 5 and wave (1) could already be finished; if so, a pullback in wave (2) is in progress.

Alternate scenario; we are in the wave Alt:3 of wave 5 , so the uptrend continues.

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AUD/USD

My preferred scenario (very bullish) is confirmed: we are in wave [ii] of 3 of 1 of (1)
Alternate scenario; the intermediate triangle pattern is still underway.

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GBP/USD

January 2, 2013 has completed the multi-year triangle wave [B] and started the downward wave [C] of primary degree; the wave 1 of (1) is finished, now we are in the wave 2 minor .
New preferred scenario; wave [y] of wave y of minute degree is ending and after the completion, the downward move continues.

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USD/JPY

My bullish scenario was correct, but now  the intermediate wave (3) could be ended, so a retracement in wave (4) is starting.
First alternate scenario; we are in wave Alt:1 of  5 , so wave (1) is not ended.

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March 16, 2013

EUR/USD

It's remains the Currency pair with the scenario most confused among those considered.

My preferred count is a correction phase like b/x wave of minor degree;
a first down move (wave [w] or Alt:w ) seems to be ended, so a bounce could start.

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EUR/GBP

March 01, 2013 I wrote: "According to forecast, there was the completion of wave 3 of 3 ; Tuesday, wave 4 is started; it's unlikely a retracement below 85."
I confirm this preferred scenario (neutral/bullish); the wave 4 has built three wave and could be a flat pattern [a]-[b]-[c] already finished or a triangle in progress.

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EUR/JPY

Preferred scenario (bullish); the expected wave 4 of minor degree could already be over; wave 1 of 5 is in completion.
Alternate scenario (neutral/bearish); bounce in the wave Alt:x of wave 4 .

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AUD/USD

March 01, 2013 I wrote:
"The multi-month wave [4] of primary degree is ending with a "throw-under" beyond a triangle pattern, so we could be close to a bottom reversal".
This forecast seems to be correct; wave (e) has bottomed close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave (d) ; however a confirmation is needed, and this is the brekout of down-line of the triangle pattern.
Preferred scenario (very bullish): we are in wave [iii] of 1 of 1 of (1)

Alternate scenario; the intermediate triangle pattern is still underway.

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GBP/USD

January 2, 2013 has completed the multi-year triangle wave [B] and started the downward wave [C] of primary degree, we might still be in the minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (1) .
Preferred scenario; wave 4 of minute degree is started and after the completion, the downward move continues.

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USD/JPY

My previous analysis was incorrect; the intermediate wave (3) is not ended, the target is between 98.8 - 99.86, where the minor wave 5 may be completed, and  and this could happen as early as next week.

ElwaveSurfer

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March 01, 2013

EUR/USD

The Currency pair with the scenario most confused among those considered.

My preferred count is a correction phase like b/x wave of minor degree.

The recent Parliamentary Elections in my country, with the unlikely chance to form a stable Government, could trigger a speculative attack to Italy and subsequently to the Euro.

Italy's public debt is approaching 2,000 billion Euros and reached 127% of GDP, a real nuclear bomb with a potential domino effect worldwide, worse than Lehman crisis.

Is Italy bound to default? As an Italian, I hope not but the risk is always very high and now that Italians in the last election were not very wise, the only one who can stop it is Mr. Mario Draghi, president of ECB, at least for love of country !

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EUR/GBP

According to forecast, there was the completion of wave 3 of 3 ; Tuesday, wave 4 is started; it's unlikely a retracement below 85.

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EUR/JPY

The expected wave 4 of minor degree is in progress;
near a completion of the first wave a/w .

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AUD/USD

The multi-month wave [4] of primary degree is ending with a "throw-under" beyond a triangle pattern, so we could be close to a bottom reversal.

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GBP/USD

January 2, 2013 has completed the multi-year triangle wave [B] and started the downward wave [C] of primary degree, we might still be in the minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (1) .

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USD/JPY

After a crazy run the market could have ended the intermediate wave (3) and could be in the early stage of a multi-week correction in wave (4)

ElwaveSurfer

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 Febraury 16, 2013

EUR/USD

Primary [B] wave like triangle pattern is in progress;

it is started the minor b/x corrective wave of intermediate (e) final wave.

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USD/JPY

As indicated in previous posts, we should be in the early stage

of a new SuperCycle bull market;

probably the intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [1] is ended;

it's coming a correction phase.

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EUR/GBP

intermediate wave (1) of primary wave [1] seems to be in progress

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EUR/JPY



the recent strength of the Euro combined with the devaluation of the Japanese Yen

desired by the new Prime Minister Abe has started a strong bull market;

this currency pairs should be yet in the intermediate wave (1) of the primary wave [1]

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AUD/USD

Inside a ending diagonal of Cycle degree,

the intermediate (e) wave of [4] in the form of triangle pattern is finishing;

we could soon see an upward thrust that indicates the beginning of wave [5]

ElwaveSurfer

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 January 26, 2013

EUR / USD

the upward trend seems to be stil in progress;

the bullish scenario is wave [c] of c of a ;

important resistance @ 1.349, that is also the 50% Fibonacci price retracement of wave (d) .

My preferred long term scenario is the same since several months; we should be in the intermediate wave (e) of a triangle wave [B]of primary degree.

USD/JPY

New preferred scenario (the ex-alternate); the historical downtrend that has lasted over 30 years is ended, so the new SuperCycle Bull Market is starting.
We should be in the intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [1] of Cycle wave I .

 ElwaveSurfer


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December 25, 2012

EUR / USD

it has been exceeded the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement's, so the upward trend continues; the bullish scenario is an impulsive wave 1-2-3-4-5 of wave [c] .

USD/JPY

Usd/Jpy seems to be in an extended wave 5 of (c) ;

now we have to be very careful because the alternate count prevails in case of the breakout of 85.52, so the historical downtrend that has lasted over 30 years would end.

However, before moving on to this second scenario, we need strong confirmation.

ElwaveSurfer

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December 11, 2012

EUR / USD

As mentioned in previous posts15 days ago and a month ago, EUR / USD is in a bear market rally, particularly appears in wave c of minute degree.
the first wave [1] / [a] is ​​finished, we are now in the second wave [2] / [b] .
But pay attention, below 1,266 this count is invalidated.

ElwaveSurfer

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December 01, 2012

USD/JPY

USD/JPYis in a long-term downtrend, but the bottom is not so far.
I'm not talking about a reversal in a few weeks, but several months.
In June 2007, after a trianglethat lasted almost nine years, begins the wave V of Cycle degree that seems to be emerging as an ending diagonal.

My preferred count expect that in October last year the Primary wave [3] is finished and started the wave [4] that is drawing the last wave (c) (unless it is another triangle a-b-c-d-e)

Using classic technical analysis, the pattern seems to be a rounding bottom.

My alternate count: the wave [5] has already been completed, and so has started a new multi-year uptrend of Cycle degree (this count prevails over 86)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer
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November 23, 2012

EUR/USD

Preferred scenario:
EUR / USD has followed the preferred scenario posted 15 days ago, and started the third wave c
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

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November 10, 2012

EUR/USD

Eur/Usd has reached a value close to a Fibonacci price and time cluster (in time wave a = b; in price wave b = 0.382 * a)
the third wave bullish begins?
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

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October, 27 2012

EURUSD: still bullish

Preferred count: temporary sideways pattern, then a new bullish wave up at least to 1.35

ElwaveSurfer

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