Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Indexes

Elliott Wave Analysis of SPX, NDX, DJIA,
DAX, FTSE, SMI, IBEX, FTSEMIB, NIKKEI.

For previous outlook and long term view on weekly charts,

see post of August 17, 2013

SPX

New counts:

Preferred: wave 3 minute of c minor of (y) intermediate of [Y] Primary of X Cycle (first target @ 2.000; maximum Cycle top @ 2.200 area in 3Q 2014)

First alternate : upward Alt:b of downward Alt:w of a double zig-zag Alt:w-x-y in intermediate Alt:(4) of Primary Alt:[C] of X Cycle

2°Alternate : wave 2°Alt:(4) of 2°Alt:[3] of 2°Alt:I of new Supercycle wave 2°Alt:[V]

 NASDAQ

Preferred: wave 4 minute (like exp flat or exp triangle) of 5 extended minor of (c) Intermediate of [Y] Primary of X Cycle

 

DJIA

Is still possible a Triangular SuperCycle wave [IV]
Other scenarios like SPX

German DAX

The best stock market (that required a recount)
Preferred: close to a top of intermediate wave (5) of Primary [1] of Cycle I of SuperCycle wave [V]

UK FTSE100

A very intricate pattern.
Preferred: close to a top of Primary wave [C] of Cycle D of SuperCycle wave [IV]
Alternate: wave Alt:[3] Primary of Alt:I Cycle of Alt:[V]

Swiss SMI

Preferred: in intermediate wave (5) of Primary [C] of Cycle D of a SuperCycle running triangle in wave [IV]

Spain IBEX

Preferred: close to a top of [X] wave of Cycle wave A/W of a SuperCycle [IV]

Italian FTSEMIB

15%-20% from the top of Primary [C]/[Y] of second Cycle X of SuperCycle [IV]

Japan NIKKEY

It seems topping with intermediate (c) of Primary [X] of Cycle X ;
First alternate: topping of Alt:(3) of Alt:[C] of Alt:B

 

Have a great weekend ;-)

 

ElwaveSurfer 

SPX - Triangle pattern

It seems to be forming a triangle pattern.
Preferred count (bullish): close to wave c/y of [a]/[w]
Alternate count (bearish): a Neely's reversal triangle in Alt:(b) is ending, so a down move in Alt:(c) of Alt:ii/b will start.

Have a great trading day .. with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, AUD/USD

In the FOREX page you can see the long-term scenario on weekly charts

and the previous short-term outlook on daily charts and on 4 hours charts.

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USD/JPY

Main count: what's incredible impulsive wave!
Bullish: we are in wave [iii] of 3 minute of 5 minor of (3) intermediate of [1] Primary; target 105.60.

EUR/JPY

See the 240 minutes chart; there is a good buy point last Thursday May 9 on the breakout of the flat of wave 2 of 5 of (1) (or in alternate scenario, of the triangle Alt:4 of 5 ); target 139.

GBP/USD

Very interesting setup.
After the rebound of wave 2 minor , we should be in the impulsive wave 3 of (1) of [C] .

EUR/GBP

The alternate scenario prevails; it's likely the completion of the corrective downward wave  c/y of (b)/(x); this currency pair is looking for a support on the  50% Fibonacci's retracement; if it will be broken down,  drop at least until 0.828.

EUR/USD

Contrasted and unclear trend, with no interesting setup.
It's likely the completion of downward wave y of b/x .

AUD/USD

My main bullish scenario is been denied, the triangular wave [4] is not yet completed.

The down move of the last week gives preference to alternate bearish count, that considers wave 3 of c of (e) in progress.

Have a great weekend ;-)

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Sideways pattern remains in progress

The failed breakout has reduced the probability that b wave is ended, so a recount is necessary.
The new preferred scenario becomes the previous first alternate (slightly bearish); b wave is a sideways pattern (triangle or three) in progress with w wave of wave [c]/[y] in its mid-move; target = 1538.
The alternate count (bullish), that considers an Alt:[4] of wave a , is becoming less likely because it seems disproportionate with wave [2] , unless it was finished March 21, and because it appears as a "three" rather than a "five".

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

SPX - Be ready for a new upward move

b wave could be finished because we have reached the minimum target time, the Fibonacci time projection (a * 38.2%).
Preferred scenario: b wave in ended with a complex corrective pattern [w]-[x]-[y] and c wave is starting;
First alternate scenario (new); b wave in not ended because it is a triangle and the waves [d] and [e] are still under construction;
Second alternate scenario (2°Alt: the old first), we are in Alt:3 wave of  Alt:[5] .

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD , USD/JPY - Update

Starting today, the Forex analysis is enriched by the charts to 240 minutes.

In the FOREX page you could see the long-term scenario on weekly charts

and the previous short-term outlook on daily charts.

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EUR/USD

It's remains the Currency pair with the scenario most confused among those considered.

My preferred count is a correction phase like b/x wave of minor degree;
a first down move (wave [w] or Alt:w ) seems to be ended, so a bounce could start.

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EUR/GBP

March 01, 2013 I wrote: "According to forecast, there was the completion of wave 3 of 3 ; Tuesday, wave 4 is started; it's unlikely a retracement below 85."
I confirm this preferred scenario (neutral/bullish); the wave 4 has built three wave and could be a flat pattern [a]-[b]-[c] already finished or a triangle in progress.

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EUR/JPY

Preferred scenario (bullish); the expected wave 4 of minor degree could already be over; wave 1 of 5 is in completion.
Alternate scenario (neutral/bearish); bounce in the wave Alt:x of wave 4 .

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AUD/USD

March 01, 2013 I wrote:
"The multi-month wave [4] of primary degree is ending with a "throw-under" beyond a triangle pattern, so we could be close to a bottom reversal".
This forecast seems to be correct; wave (e) has bottomed close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave (d) ; however a confirmation is needed, and this is the brekout of down-line of the triangle pattern.
Preferred scenario (very bullish): we are in wave [iii] of 1 of 1 of (1)

Alternate scenario; the intermediate triangle pattern is still underway.

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GBP/USD

January 2, 2013 has completed the multi-year triangle wave [B] and started the downward wave [C] of primary degree, we might still be in the minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (1) .
Preferred scenario; wave 4 of minute degree is started and after the completion, the downward move continues.

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USD/JPY

My previous analysis was incorrect; the intermediate wave (3) is not ended, the target is between 98.8 - 99.86, where the minor wave 5 may be completed, and  and this could happen as early as next week.

Have a great weekend ;-)

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis of DJIA, NDX, DAX, GOLD, OIL

Dow Jones Industrial Average

 

Although this week DJIA has break-out the tops, the uptrend is still in accordance with my two main Long-term scenarios, which consider the top of the year 2000 as the end of SuperCycle wave [III] ;

Preferred scenario; the SuperCycle wave [IV] is a WXY three wave pattern, where the wave W is over at the bottom in 2009, now we are in the Cycle wave X , and is developing the final intermediate wave (y) of primary wave [Y] .

First alternate scenario: the SuperCycle wave [IV] is an ABCDE expanding triangle, and now we are in wave Alt: D.

 

 

My preferred short-term view (on daily basis) is bullish and considers an impulse wave a of minor degree in progress; I think that intermediate wave (y) could be an abc zig-zag pattern.

  

NDX

It's always the worst of U.S. stock market index; the fault is obviously due to AAPL.
The uptrend pattern is unclear , the upward move seems weak.
(form Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 02)

DAX

A diagonal pattern is underway; we will soon see a top's test.
(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

GOLD

I've updated my preferred count; the bottom of intermediate (w) wave is in progress, and not yet reached.
(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

 

 

CRUDE OIL

 

The downtrend is still underway; we are close to completion of wave [1]

(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

 

 

 

 Have a great weekend!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX, GOLD, CRUDE OIL

DAX

The Long-term Elliott Wave count (on weekly basis) considers, as preferred count, an imminent top of Cycle wave D, then a downward wave E that completes a Triangle wave [IV] of SuperCycle degree.

Short-term outlook

Preferred count: correction in minor wave x then final upward wave z ending intermediate wave (y) , primary wave [Y] and Cycle wave D by the second quarter 2013.

Alternate count: Wave E is finished in June 2012, now we are in a leading diagonal pattern which completes 1°Alt:(1) of the new bull market.

GOLD

New Long-term Elliott Wave count:
we are in Primary wave [C] of Cycle wave IV of SuperCycle wave [V] .

Short-term outlook.

The previous count is invalidated; my new main short-term scenario requires that GOLD is completing the intermediate wave (w) of primary wave [C] , then the pullback of wave (x) .

CRUDE OIL

The Long-term scenario is confirmed.

Preferred count: OIL is in downward intermediate wave (c) of primary [C] of Cycle wave A

Alternate count: OIL is in the mid stage of Alt:II of Cycle degree; Alt:[X] is near a completion, then upward move in wave Alt:[Y]

  

Short-term outlook.

Preferred scenario: bearish count; wave iii of 3 is started

Alternate scenario: final wave Alt:(e) of triangle wave Alt:[Y] , then the uptrend resumes.

Have a great weekend.

ElwaveSurfer