Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, AUD/USD

In the FOREX page you can see the long-term scenario on weekly charts

and the previous short-term outlook on daily charts and on 4 hours charts.

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USD/JPY

Main count: what's incredible impulsive wave!
Bullish: we are in wave [iii] of 3 minute of 5 minor of (3) intermediate of [1] Primary; target 105.60.

EUR/JPY

See the 240 minutes chart; there is a good buy point last Thursday May 9 on the breakout of the flat of wave 2 of 5 of (1) (or in alternate scenario, of the triangle Alt:4 of 5 ); target 139.

GBP/USD

Very interesting setup.
After the rebound of wave 2 minor , we should be in the impulsive wave 3 of (1) of [C] .

EUR/GBP

The alternate scenario prevails; it's likely the completion of the corrective downward wave  c/y of (b)/(x); this currency pair is looking for a support on the  50% Fibonacci's retracement; if it will be broken down,  drop at least until 0.828.

EUR/USD

Contrasted and unclear trend, with no interesting setup.
It's likely the completion of downward wave y of b/x .

AUD/USD

My main bullish scenario is been denied, the triangular wave [4] is not yet completed.

The down move of the last week gives preference to alternate bearish count, that considers wave 3 of c of (e) in progress.

Have a great weekend ;-)

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The first top is achieved

In the Friday post I wrote: "Between today and the next trading session could be completed the wave [5] , then starts the pullback in wave b " but still yesterday, even if I wrote "the pattern is not clear," I confirmed the main scenario (bullish), that the market's behavior has sanctioned to be wrong.
The first alternate scenario prevails; the top of minute wave a of minor wave z was achieved Friday at 1563.62, less than two points from the lower zone of the target (1565-1570), and I admit to have recognized it with a day late.
The corrective wave b is now underway; the first down movement retrace close to 1545.13, exactly the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of previous impulse wave, but its completion will require some days.
Have a great trading day ...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Is an extended third or fifth wave of minuette degree?

I'm undecided about last upward move; it may be still a wave [3] or already the extended [5]

However, the uptrend is not yet over, and I confirm the scenarios I described yesterday.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis of DJIA, NDX, DAX, GOLD, OIL

Dow Jones Industrial Average

 

Although this week DJIA has break-out the tops, the uptrend is still in accordance with my two main Long-term scenarios, which consider the top of the year 2000 as the end of SuperCycle wave [III] ;

Preferred scenario; the SuperCycle wave [IV] is a WXY three wave pattern, where the wave W is over at the bottom in 2009, now we are in the Cycle wave X , and is developing the final intermediate wave (y) of primary wave [Y] .

First alternate scenario: the SuperCycle wave [IV] is an ABCDE expanding triangle, and now we are in wave Alt: D.

 

 

My preferred short-term view (on daily basis) is bullish and considers an impulse wave a of minor degree in progress; I think that intermediate wave (y) could be an abc zig-zag pattern.

  

NDX

It's always the worst of U.S. stock market index; the fault is obviously due to AAPL.
The uptrend pattern is unclear , the upward move seems weak.
(form Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 02)

DAX

A diagonal pattern is underway; we will soon see a top's test.
(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

GOLD

I've updated my preferred count; the bottom of intermediate (w) wave is in progress, and not yet reached.
(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

 

 

CRUDE OIL

 

The downtrend is still underway; we are close to completion of wave [1]

(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

 

 

 

 Have a great weekend!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - The last bearish wave has started

What I expected has occurred, with the full coincidence of my first 2 Elliott Wave counts.
According to my main scenario, the rebound is finished right on Fibonacci retracement of 50%, with an irregular a-b-c where wave c has a clear structure in 5 impulse wave, so Friday has started the last bearish wave [c].
My first alternative scenario considers the rebound like a bull wave [1] and now the market is in wave [2]  (this scenario is invalid under 1403)
Have a great trading day...with care!