Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Indexes

Elliott Wave Analysis of SPX, NDX, DJIA,
DAX, FTSE, SMI, IBEX, FTSEMIB, NIKKEI.

For previous outlook and long term view on weekly charts,

see post of August 17, 2013

SPX

New counts:

Preferred: wave 3 minute of c minor of (y) intermediate of [Y] Primary of X Cycle (first target @ 2.000; maximum Cycle top @ 2.200 area in 3Q 2014)

First alternate : upward Alt:b of downward Alt:w of a double zig-zag Alt:w-x-y in intermediate Alt:(4) of Primary Alt:[C] of X Cycle

2°Alternate : wave 2°Alt:(4) of 2°Alt:[3] of 2°Alt:I of new Supercycle wave 2°Alt:[V]

 NASDAQ

Preferred: wave 4 minute (like exp flat or exp triangle) of 5 extended minor of (c) Intermediate of [Y] Primary of X Cycle

 

DJIA

Is still possible a Triangular SuperCycle wave [IV]
Other scenarios like SPX

German DAX

The best stock market (that required a recount)
Preferred: close to a top of intermediate wave (5) of Primary [1] of Cycle I of SuperCycle wave [V]

UK FTSE100

A very intricate pattern.
Preferred: close to a top of Primary wave [C] of Cycle D of SuperCycle wave [IV]
Alternate: wave Alt:[3] Primary of Alt:I Cycle of Alt:[V]

Swiss SMI

Preferred: in intermediate wave (5) of Primary [C] of Cycle D of a SuperCycle running triangle in wave [IV]

Spain IBEX

Preferred: close to a top of [X] wave of Cycle wave A/W of a SuperCycle [IV]

Italian FTSEMIB

15%-20% from the top of Primary [C]/[Y] of second Cycle X of SuperCycle [IV]

Japan NIKKEY

It seems topping with intermediate (c) of Primary [X] of Cycle X ;
First alternate: topping of Alt:(3) of Alt:[C] of Alt:B

 

Have a great weekend ;-)

 

ElwaveSurfer 

SPX - Correction continues

Preferred scenario continues to prevail; after the completion of upward wave [b]/[x] , now we could be in the third wave of b , that seems to be a double zig-zag, where the first w is already finished; I'm waiting for the continuation of the down move.

First alternate scenario (bullish); we are in the Alt:2 of the Alt:[5] of a .

 

Have a great trading day ... with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of DJIA, NDX, DAX, GOLD, OIL

Dow Jones Industrial Average

 

Although this week DJIA has break-out the tops, the uptrend is still in accordance with my two main Long-term scenarios, which consider the top of the year 2000 as the end of SuperCycle wave [III] ;

Preferred scenario; the SuperCycle wave [IV] is a WXY three wave pattern, where the wave W is over at the bottom in 2009, now we are in the Cycle wave X , and is developing the final intermediate wave (y) of primary wave [Y] .

First alternate scenario: the SuperCycle wave [IV] is an ABCDE expanding triangle, and now we are in wave Alt: D.

 

 

My preferred short-term view (on daily basis) is bullish and considers an impulse wave a of minor degree in progress; I think that intermediate wave (y) could be an abc zig-zag pattern.

  

NDX

It's always the worst of U.S. stock market index; the fault is obviously due to AAPL.
The uptrend pattern is unclear , the upward move seems weak.
(form Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 02)

DAX

A diagonal pattern is underway; we will soon see a top's test.
(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

GOLD

I've updated my preferred count; the bottom of intermediate (w) wave is in progress, and not yet reached.
(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

 

 

CRUDE OIL

 

The downtrend is still underway; we are close to completion of wave [1]

(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

 

 

 

 Have a great weekend!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Update counts

The uptrend seems to be intact.
New preferred scenario (the old second alternate); bullish; pullback in wave [4] and after, new top with completion of wave [5] and wave a  (zig-zag a-b-c ?)
New alternate scenario (the old preferred): slightly bearish, wave Alt:b is underway.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Upward wave of minuette degree

In the last trading session the market could have already reached the bottom of wave [b] and started the impulse wave [c] , according to my preferred scenario that considers this upward move a zig-zag pattern of wave b/x .
The first alternate scenario, instead, is immediatly bearish but is invalidated if the index rises above 1525.

Have a great trading day... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Waiting for the market reaction

Now let's see how the market reacts to Cliff deal.
SPX has formed a new bottom, creating a triple zigzag  [w-x-y-x-z] rather than the double zigzag expected.
On the charts at a lower degree (1-3 minutes) the new upward move does not appear an impulsive wave...
For the rest referring to the last SPX post... "now we have to understand if it is a wave w of minute degree, then only a rebound in the downward minor wave x , or if it is the final wave y of x , then the bullish corrective minor wave y is beginning. These two scenarios have the same odds."
Have a great trading day...with care!
And HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The second bullish wave appears in progress

The market has moved as expected;
wave [b] seems to be over close to a Fibonacci price and time cluster (see 5 minutes chart), so the wave [c] of a zig-zag pattern appears in progress.
This is generally a good opportunity to make low-risk trading  (I opened a long position on UPRO @ 89.75); a confirmation is required with the breakout of 1448.
Alternative scenario (Alt:) ; yesterday's bottom is only the wave w of [b]
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The first attack on the resistance has failed

Bad session yesterday.
After a good breakout in mid-session, the SPX has reversed and closed near the bottom, belying my re-count intraday; the first attack on the 1434 resistance has failed.
I trade a lot using, as pattern setup, the ascending triangles and the Cup with Handle, and last week I have seen too many of these patterns fail and this is a sign of underlying weakness; Bulls do not have enough conviction or enough munitions to break and maintain positions.
Counts are always unclear but it is possible that we have reached a top of wave [w] of y (double zig-zag pattern).
Important the seals of the supports @ 1424 and especially @ 1418 (Fibonacci price cluster: see 15 min. chart below).
Today Mike Sinibaldi wrote on Twitter: "Permabulls: please post a impulsive count since 11/16 low. I'm dying to see it."
I agree with him, and I wrote in my post on Saturday, December 8 (Elliott Wave Analysis and the KISS principle).
This is and remains a bear market rally, we have to understand of what degree (and what complex pattern it is, maybe a double or a triple zig-zag)
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

Intermarket Analysis: GOLD and CRUDE OIL

GOLD

Preferred scenario (last post October 20th);
the c minor zig-zag wave of (2) intermediate wave is started.

CRUDE OIL

My Preferred Count of August 25th is confirmed;
the 3 minor impulse wave has accelerated downward.

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX and GOLD

SPX - Short term outlook

Yesterday bad trading day.
My preferred scenario shows signs of cracking: the down move on Friday could be an impulse wave not yet complete, the confirmation is another decline on Monday.
In this case also my first alternative scenario (a doulble three wxyxz) could be wrong and could start a market collapse that requires a new count.
The situation is dangerous, so carefully.

 

SPX hourly chart

SPX 10 m chart

 

*********************
GOLD - Intermediate outlook

Correction continues.

My preferred scenario looks at zig-zag pattern

I'm waiting for a pullback (b minor wave) and then another bearish wave.

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Focus on Fibonacci to confirm a complex corrective count.

The count begins to be difficult and analysis of price and time with the Fibonacci ratios becomes very useful.
I keep thinking that the wave began on June 4 is corrective because there are too many "overlapping swings" and no evidence of harmonious and balanced impulse.
The problem is to correctly identify the pivotal point for each complex corrective pattern, locate the right position of the waves, and the right degree (however, this last point for me is always a secondary trouble because the original implications about the trend are the same).
According to Fibonacci price analisys, an important pivotal point seems to be the bottom of 2 August, as the three waves: first up w (a-b-c from August 2 to August 21), second down x (triangle from 21 August to 4 or 5 September) three up y (a-b-c from 4 or 5 September to 14 September), are in Fibonacci relationships : x = 0.382 * w , plus y is close to [(1 * w) + x ] and meet the guideline of "the right look".
That is why I updated my preferred count, which remains, however, a complex Zig-Zag pattern type wzy or wxyxz.
Instead, regarding the Fibonacci time analisys, I see that the first wave w of minor degree has the same duration of the second wave x (time w = time x) and that the first wave w of the current wave y is equal to w and to x (time w = time x = time w) and this is either a coincidence (but I don't bilieve that), or the current wave y is an elongated complex pattern, or my preferred count is wrong.
I continue to investigate.
I don't think that the bearish correction is completed, and in any case, it's a risky point to open a trade.
Have a great trading day...with care!

 

SPX - Sideways corrective wave?

New count (it changes often in the early stage of corrective waves ...).
The first wave began on July 19 and ended July 24, qualified as wave a/w, seems to have corrective properties; if the preferred count is right, wave y should be a sideways or flat or three, do not a zigzag type.
It 's too early to identify the trend, which for now, is choppy.
Have a great trading day...with care!

Nuovo conteggio (esso cambia spesso nella fase iniziale delle onde correttive...)
La prima onda correttiva iniziata il 19 luglio e terminata il 24 luglio, qualificata come onda a/w, sembra aver caratteristiche correttive; se il conteggio preferito è corretto l'onda y in corso dovrebbe essere tipo sideways o flat o three, non tipo zigzag.
E' ancora presto per individuare un trend principale , che per ora, è indeterminato.
Buon trading... e prudenza!