Intermarket Analysis

I trade in stocks, stock index futures and stock index options.

I don't trade in forex, commodities, bonds.

But I believe that a techno-fundamental approach and an intermarket analysis can be very usefull for medium-term trading and long-term investiment.

On this page, I start to post the Elliott Wave scenarios of the main intermarket indexes and my personal market thoughts.

ElwaveSurfer

May 02, 2012

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------







April 20, 2013

extract from the post titled: "GOLD: deep pullback or Bubble's burst?"


....From the point of view of technical analysis , integrated with the Elliott Wave Principle , the gold is in a long-term uptrend since the end of 1999.

Looking at the monthly chart, in 1980 Gold ends the previous Bullish Phase, which began in 1971, with a top to S 873 , qualified with the Elliott Wave Principle as main scenario, top of SuperCycle Wave [III] (such as Alternative scenario: Alt: [I])

From 1980 to 1999 Gold develops a SuperCycle Bear Market, the Wave [IV] (or Alt: [II] ) structured as A-B-C in which wave B takes the form of a triangle pattern , [A]-[B]-[C]-[D]-[E] ; this corrective wave ends with a bottom at $ 251.

In 1999 a new SuperCycle Bull Market begins, the wave [V] (or Alt: [III] ), which in my opinion, according to the main scenario, is still in progress.

The weekly chart's analysis shows in detail the structure of this SuperCycle wave [V] , which according to my preferred count, is being developed as wave I extension of Cycle degree, with top in march 2008 to $ 1.024, close to Fibonacci's extension of 100% compared to the wave V of [III] starting from [IV] , fast correction in wave II until October 2008 to $ 682, new uptrend of wave III ( [3] extended), ending in September 2011 to $ 1.921 close to a Fibonacci price cluster given by: 200% wave V of [III] from [IV] & 1.618% of I from II .
Since autumn 2011, I think it is developing the Cycle Wave IV and the breakdown of the parallel line to the up-line from tops, which took plase on 02 April, could mark the final stretch of the wave [C] of Primary degree, with the first target in $ 1.300 area (50% Fibonacci retracement of wave III), the second target in S 1.150 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and final target not below $ 1.033 ; the breaching of this level would invalidate this preferred scenario for the Alternate one, that considers the top at $ 1.921 the end of wave Alt: [V o III] of SuperCycle degree.

In the short-term (daily chart), I updated the count to the breakdown of parallel up-line occured to April 02; until that time, I thought was possible and imminent the end of the wave [C] of a triangle pattern.

However, it's interesting to note that as the oultlook for the short-medium term was already bearish, working in trend-following approach, traders should not have long positions in their portfolios.

The breakdown of the strong static support at $ 1.527 occured a week ago, support that had held the pressure of the Bears on three occasions (September and December 2011 and May 2012), constitutes an important signal confirming the primary bearish trend in progress.

Conclusions:

Traders who work with "a breakout or a pullback approach", should refrain from opening any long position; only the bravest traders operating in "reversal logic" can think of opening long if the $ 1,300 support hold, still taking a very high risk of loss (personally, I don't use Elliott to find bottoms or tops on which to open new long or short positions, but rather to close the ones (short or long) already open).

"The trend is your friend until the end";
Primary and Intermediate trends are bearish, traders should act cautiously opening short on controlled and well-structured bounces (to 2/4 /b) or with the break-down of congestion phases (flat type , triangle or three), but beware:
the Cycle Bull Market does not seem finished, in the long term is likely to see higher prices to existing and even to historic Tops.
If so, when?
We will see that just living ;-)

ElwaveSurfer

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


December 11, 2012

 

 

 

 

 

EUR / USD

As mentioned in previous posts 15 days ago and a month ago, EUR / USD is in a bear market rally, particularly appears in wave c of minute degree.
the first wave [1] / [a] is ​​finished, we are now in the second wave [2] / [b] .
But pay attention, below 1,266 this count is invalidated.

DAX

My preferred count shown in the post of 10 November (and updated to 23 November) proved to be correct (for now).
The up wave seems to be impulsive so may be a wave [a] of a zig-zag pattern y .

ElwaveSurfer

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

December 01, 2012

NDX

My preferred count considers ongoing wave B of Cycle degree, even if the reversal is not far, and the last rise is a bear market rally, because the wave b/x is finishing and then follow the wave c/y to complete the bearish minor wave 4 .

This view, in the short term, is different from that of SPX and this worries me greatly, because that increase the odds that one of them is wrong.

1° Alternate scenario; on September 21 ended the wave (c) , and with it the wave B and then started a new long-term downtrend.

2° Alternate scenario; bullish, wave 4 is already over

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is in a long-term downtrend, but the bottom is not so far.
I'm not talking about a reversal in a few weeks, but several months.
In June 2007, after a triangle that lasted almost nine years, begins the wave V of Cycle degree that seems to be emerging as an ending diagonal.

My preferred count expect that in October last year the Primary wave [3] is finished and started the wave [4] that is drawing the last wave (c) (unless it is another triangle a-b-c-d-e)

Using classic technical analysis, the pattern seems to be a rounding bottom.

My alternate count: the wave [5] has already been completed, and so has started a new multi-year uptrend of Cycle degree (this count prevails over 86)

GOLD

The alternative scenario prevails; wave (2) is not ending.
The new alternative scenario is the old preferred one.
(see November 17th post)

CRUDE OIL

The wave 1 (Alt: a) is over, now the wave 2 (Alt: b) is in progress like a sideways pattern;
the main trend remains bearish.
(last post November 17th; long term view in Intermarket Analysis page)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

November 23, 2012

DAX

Preferred scenario:
wave x is ended with a complex [w]-[x]-[y] ( [x] wave like an expanding triangle) and last upward wave y is in progress, to complete the (b/x) wave, then starting a new intermediate bear market cycle.
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

EUR/USD

Preferred scenario:
EUR / USD has followed the preferred scenario posted 15 days ago, and started the third wave c
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

November 17, 2012

GOLD

Preferred scenario; from the previous post of November 3, intermediate wave (2) is over (with a minor zig-zag a-b-c and a very short wave c); now, minute wave 2 of minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) is ending; I'm waiting for a bottom in 1700 area.
The count is invalidated in 1672.

CRUDE OIL

Analysis is changed since the last post (November 3).
Crude Oil is struggling to get off, it seems to be a diagonal pattern, unless it accelerates downward within the next week.
Preferred scenario; wave 1 minute is ending, then bounce in wave 2; intermediate trend still bearish;
First alternate count: the decline started last March 1 is a minor zig-zag a-b-c and wave c is ending, this would mean that the intermediate wave (c) is over, and a new uptrend resumes.

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

November 10, 2012

DAX

 

 

 

Preferred scenario:
congestion could be finished; I'm waiting for a last upward wave y to completion (b/x) wave, then starting a new intermediate bear market cycle.
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

EUR/USD

Eur/Usd has reached a value close to a Fibonacci price and time cluster (in time wave a = b; in price wave b = 0.382 * a)
the third wave bullish begins?
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


November , 3 2012

GOLD: last corrective wave

Preferred scenario: the c minor zig-zag wave of (2) intermediate wave is started.

CRUDEOIL: the bearish impulse wave continues

My preferred scenario of August 25 is confirmed:
  the 3 minor wave has accelerated.

ElwaveSurfer

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

October, 27 2012

DAX: close to the end of the bull cycle

Also the German Battleship seems at the end of the bull cycle, perhaps a last bullish attack at the tops (8000-8150) and then it's likely a dip.

Only my 2°Alternate count (2°Alt:) is bullish as long-term view.

EURUSD: still bullish

Preferred count: temporary sideways pattern, then a new bullish wave up at least to 1.35

ElwaveSurfer


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

October 20, 2012

GOLD - Correction continues

My preferred scenario looks at zig-zag pattern.
I'm waiting for a pullback (b minor wave) and then another bearish wave.

ElwaveSurfer

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

October 09, 2012

GOLD - Confirmed the end of impulsive wave and the start of corrective wave

My long positions opened August 21 on RGLD and GLD have been closed on September 25 (see update on "US Stocks" page)

ElwaveSurfer


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

September 22, 2012

GOLD - Close to a strong resistance and at the end of wave (1)

I hold my long positions opened August 21 on RGLD and GLD.

ElwaveSurfer

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

August 25, 2012

CRUDE OIL - Pullback in bear market

ElwaveSurfer

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

August 22, 2012
GOLD - Triangle with 9 legs in a triangle with 5 legs?

Bullish breakout.

ElwaveSurfer
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

August 04, 2012

GLOBALIZATION
The monetary policies of central banks have always influenced the movement of markets.
This week has happened in particular for the ECB; the President, and my compatriot, Mr. Mario Draghi, on Thursday has disappointed the market because he hasn't started new steps to week after have strongly suggesting big action.  Draghi said Germany remains opposed to ECB bond purchases.
So European stocks fall.
In night the traders seems to have thought and considered that, perhaps, the meeting of the ECB was not so bad because it still provides a policy action in support of Spain o Italy and because Germany might be easing its opposition.
So Friday European stocks soar.
All this is nonsense.
I am Italian but I recognize the reasons for Germany; why the savers Germans should pay for the spendthrift Italians and Spaniards?
This is true but need to find a quick way to increase ECB firepower and/or ESFS funds ; without a bailout of Spain and, probably soon after of Italy, the euro collapses and this will be a global nuclear bomb.
And also U.S. will not remain without serious effects and will suffer a severe blow.


ElwaveSurfer


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
May 02, 2012,  I resume my analysis on Gold posted on main page December 3, 2011

                   GOLD    -       Ready for the wave [5] bullish?