SPX - Possible top of minute degree in a Fibonacci time cluster.

The preferred scenario, after being weakened by the Wednesday's move, was denied from that of yesterday.

The new preferred scenario considers that occured,  on January 30,  the top of wave y , and now we are in the wave [a]/[w]  of the second wave x of a double zig-zag w-x-y-x-z  .
This count would be confirmed by an interesting Fibonacci time cluster at the top of the wave y (which unfortunately I have only seen today) between 100% (bottom wave x - bottom wave x) = red vertical line (dashed) and 261,8% (top wave w - bottom wave x) = white vertical  line (dashed).

Another confirmation is required, with the lack of new highs within a few days.

The new first alternate scenario: we are in Alt:[4] of Alt:c
Possible targets: in 1487-1486 area there is the first Fibonacci price cluster, the second is in 1481-1480 area.

The first alternate count could also end today close to 1492 (but this is a hypothesis with low probability).

However, the main trend remain bullish so, even if a top may have occured,  I don't open short position on stocks (may be in intraday ES trading).

Have a great trading day...with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

SPX - The second bullish wave appears in progress

The market has moved as expected;
wave [b] seems to be over close to a Fibonacci price and time cluster (see 5 minutes chart), so the wave [c] of a zig-zag pattern appears in progress.
This is generally a good opportunity to make low-risk trading  (I opened a long position on UPRO @ 89.75); a confirmation is required with the breakout of 1448.
Alternative scenario (Alt:) ; yesterday's bottom is only the wave w of [b]
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Intermarket Analysis DAX and EUR/USD

DAX

Preferred scenario:
congestion could be finished;
I'm waiting for a last upward wave y to completion (b/x) wave, then starting a new intermediate bear market cycle.
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

EUR/USD

Eur/Usd has reached a Fibonacci price and time cluster (in time, wave a = b; in price, wave b = 0.382 * a)
the third wave bullish begins?
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Hunting of "x" bottom requires caution

As expected, the market has declined; the hypothesis of triangle in wave x was correct.
Now the first 2 scenarios that I expect for the end of the x wave are as follows:
- Preferred scenario: the index reached the first Fibonacci price cluster in 1435-1434 area in mid-session today at the yellow vertical where there is a micro Fibonacci time clusters;
- First alternate count: the index falls again until 1428-1426 area where there is a second Fibonacci price cluster.
Below, it is necessary change the count.
The bad news is the pattern; the suspected downwave y started yesterday seems to have an  impulse structure, which is not possible in a complex pattern, and this element deserves careful!
Have a great trading day ... with care!!!

SPX - Correction doesn't seem complete

No changes to the scenario pointed out yesterday; correction continues.
The  assumed count would be confirmed if the bearish move ended, at least, in the black area of the yellow rectangle (chart 2), at the crossing of Fibonacci price and time clusters (1446-1426 / 20-21 September).
Have a great trading day...with care!

SPX - Looking for a minute bottom to bounce....

The correction continues, markets were lower on lighter volume;
next target always in 1390 area, and the second target in 1365 area, where there are two Fibonacci price cluster.
Up to 5 September the market is in a Fibonacci time cluster, but it lacks the completion of the pattern (very unclear) to give it value.
Today important meeting for the Fed summit; Bernanke's words can pushing or freezing the market, .....which may have already considered all.
Have a great trading day..with care!

 
La correzione prosegue ; prossimo obiettivo sempre in area 1390, e secondo obiettivo in area 1365, dove ci sono due Fibonacci price cluster.
Fino al 5 settembre il mercato è in una zona di Fibonacci time cluster, ma manca il completamento del pattern per dargli valore.
Oggi giornata importante per il summit Fed; le parole di Bernanke possono spingere o gelare il mercato, che forse ha già scontato tutto.
Buon trading...e prudenza!