SPX - Correction continues

Preferred scenario continues to prevail; after the completion of upward wave [b]/[x] , now we could be in the third wave of b , that seems to be a double zig-zag, where the first w is already finished; I'm waiting for the continuation of the down move.

First alternate scenario (bullish); we are in the Alt:2 of the Alt:[5] of a .

 

Have a great trading day ... with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

 

SPX - Rebound in correction (or final impulse)

The preferred scenario presented in the last post, according to which was probably reached the bottom of wave [a]/[w] , seems to be confirmed by the yesterday's rise that could be qualifies as wave [b]/[x]  of minute wave b .
A little breakout of the top labeled as wave a does not necessarily mean that the count is invalidated  because the wave b could be an irregular or an expanded pattern.
First alternate scenario (15 m. chart): the last top was the Alt:[3] , the bottom of the March 19 the Alt:[4] ,  so we are still in the final impulse of wave a .

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Correction in progress

The correction in progress, labeled wave b of minor wave z , appears like a complex or like a combination (the two corrective patterns most hard to interpret).
It's difficult to say if the index has reached the first bottom of wave [a]/[w] ;
this down move could be a w-x-y or a w-x-y-x-z and 1525 the best target, but the market is still very strong.
We must be patient, look and wait; in this condition, trading is too risk even in the intra-day time frame.
Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The first top is achieved

In the Friday post I wrote: "Between today and the next trading session could be completed the wave [5] , then starts the pullback in wave b " but still yesterday, even if I wrote "the pattern is not clear," I confirmed the main scenario (bullish), that the market's behavior has sanctioned to be wrong.
The first alternate scenario prevails; the top of minute wave a of minor wave z was achieved Friday at 1563.62, less than two points from the lower zone of the target (1565-1570), and I admit to have recognized it with a day late.
The corrective wave b is now underway; the first down movement retrace close to 1545.13, exactly the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of previous impulse wave, but its completion will require some days.
Have a great trading day ...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Sideways move before the first top

I'm surprised of the last movement, so I had to update the count.
The pattern is not clear, but I confirm the preferred scenario (bullish); the alternate one is bearish.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD , USD/JPY - Update

Starting today, the Forex analysis is enriched by the charts to 240 minutes.

In the FOREX page you could see the long-term scenario on weekly charts

and the previous short-term outlook on daily charts.

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EUR/USD

It's remains the Currency pair with the scenario most confused among those considered.

My preferred count is a correction phase like b/x wave of minor degree;
a first down move (wave [w] or Alt:w ) seems to be ended, so a bounce could start.

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EUR/GBP

March 01, 2013 I wrote: "According to forecast, there was the completion of wave 3 of 3 ; Tuesday, wave 4 is started; it's unlikely a retracement below 85."
I confirm this preferred scenario (neutral/bullish); the wave 4 has built three wave and could be a flat pattern [a]-[b]-[c] already finished or a triangle in progress.

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EUR/JPY

Preferred scenario (bullish); the expected wave 4 of minor degree could already be over; wave 1 of 5 is in completion.
Alternate scenario (neutral/bearish); bounce in the wave Alt:x of wave 4 .

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AUD/USD

March 01, 2013 I wrote:
"The multi-month wave [4] of primary degree is ending with a "throw-under" beyond a triangle pattern, so we could be close to a bottom reversal".
This forecast seems to be correct; wave (e) has bottomed close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave (d) ; however a confirmation is needed, and this is the brekout of down-line of the triangle pattern.
Preferred scenario (very bullish): we are in wave [iii] of 1 of 1 of (1)

Alternate scenario; the intermediate triangle pattern is still underway.

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GBP/USD

January 2, 2013 has completed the multi-year triangle wave [B] and started the downward wave [C] of primary degree, we might still be in the minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (1) .
Preferred scenario; wave 4 of minute degree is started and after the completion, the downward move continues.

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USD/JPY

My previous analysis was incorrect; the intermediate wave (3) is not ended, the target is between 98.8 - 99.86, where the minor wave 5 may be completed, and  and this could happen as early as next week.

Have a great weekend ;-)

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Waiting for a first top

The wave [4] was already over in a "fast and short mode".

The index, by now, is very close to the first bullish target (1565-1570), considered the most optimistic assumptions as end of wave a of minute degree.

Between today and the next trading session could be completed the wave [5] , then starts the pullback in wave b .

Have a great trading day...with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Close to a completion of the impulse wave

The underway pattern isn't clear but seems to prevails the hypothesis that the wave [3] is over and the wave [4] is ending, and we are close to a bullish breakout (preferred scenario).

However, even if with less probability, we can't discard the alternate scenarios, according to which , after a top of Alt:a/w , the market is developing the Alt:b/x wave.

Have a great trading day....with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Correction of minute or minuette degree

scenarios were too optimistic;
the wave [3] or Alt:[5] is over, but the uptrend is still underway.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Is an extended third or fifth wave of minuette degree?

I'm undecided about last upward move; it may be still a wave [3] or already the extended [5]

However, the uptrend is not yet over, and I confirm the scenarios I described yesterday.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer