SPX - The uptrend is still underway

The uptrend seems intact.
My preferred scenario is always the same; we are in the wave [3] of minute wave a of minor wave z .
First alternate scenario: Alt:[5] of a .
Second alternate scenario: 2°Alt:[c] of a .

First target: 1565-1570 area (the end of wave a)

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

PS: we always have to consider that we should be close to the end of a wave of Cycle degree , so carefully!!!

Elliott Wave Analysis of DJIA, NDX, DAX, GOLD, OIL

Dow Jones Industrial Average

 

Although this week DJIA has break-out the tops, the uptrend is still in accordance with my two main Long-term scenarios, which consider the top of the year 2000 as the end of SuperCycle wave [III] ;

Preferred scenario; the SuperCycle wave [IV] is a WXY three wave pattern, where the wave W is over at the bottom in 2009, now we are in the Cycle wave X , and is developing the final intermediate wave (y) of primary wave [Y] .

First alternate scenario: the SuperCycle wave [IV] is an ABCDE expanding triangle, and now we are in wave Alt: D.

 

 

My preferred short-term view (on daily basis) is bullish and considers an impulse wave a of minor degree in progress; I think that intermediate wave (y) could be an abc zig-zag pattern.

  

NDX

It's always the worst of U.S. stock market index; the fault is obviously due to AAPL.
The uptrend pattern is unclear , the upward move seems weak.
(form Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 02)

DAX

A diagonal pattern is underway; we will soon see a top's test.
(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

GOLD

I've updated my preferred count; the bottom of intermediate (w) wave is in progress, and not yet reached.
(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

 

 

CRUDE OIL

 

The downtrend is still underway; we are close to completion of wave [1]

(for my Long-term view look at the post of Febraury 23)

 

 

 

 Have a great weekend!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Update counts

The uptrend seems to be intact.
New preferred scenario (the old second alternate); bullish; pullback in wave [4] and after, new top with completion of wave [5] and wave a  (zig-zag a-b-c ?)
New alternate scenario (the old preferred): slightly bearish, wave Alt:b is underway.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Another alternate scenario

Respect to yesterday considerations, I added the second alternate count (2°Alt:) , that may become the main scenario if the top will be broken upward;
according to it,  we could be in an impulsive wave 2°Alt: [1-2-3-4-5] which forms the first wave a of  minor wave z

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Elliott Wave scenarios with some uncertainties

The preferred bullish scenario proposed in recent days proved to be correct, even beyond the level of 1541, above which I wrote yesterday that I upgraded the wave count by November 16.
But perhaps, in hindsight,  it is not necessary.
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the achievement of this new top decrees the end of correction, unless it is developing a running flat or triangle or three.
Looking at the chart, does not appear that the last correction, in its most extensive form from February 19 to 26, is proportional with the bullish movement that preceded it, but if we compare the last correction with the previous correction (wave y from 12 to 31 December 2012) we note that:

> in terms of price, the two corrections are of similar amplitude (41 points against 45);

> in termes of time,they are connected with a Fibonacci relationship close to 38.2% (78 hours vs. 31).
Is this enough to say the last correction can reasonably be labeled as a wave of minor degree (or wave x) ?
Despite more than a perplexity, the minimum requirements are there.
But other problems arise; if the bottom of 26 February was of minor degree (wave x), the potential targets of the upward corrective wave in progress, wave z , were above the 1565-1570 resistance, which represents the excess of the absolute tops of SPX.

Based on these considerations, it becomes difficult to draw Elliott wave scenarios (as often happens at the end of cycles or waves of high degree).
New preferred scenario: bullish, we are in wave [c] of minute wave a of minor wave z .
First alternate count: bearish; we are close to the top of Alt:b wave of minor wave Alt:x  (running correction type).

Have a great trading day ... with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still bullish

Yesterday, after a little initial indecision, the index has broken upward the micro flat base.
However, even if the direction is the one I proposed, some doubts assail me on the structure of pattern given that the last sideways congestion is higher (in time amplitude) than my expectation, and that looks like a "Cup with Handle" with upward implication.
Preferred short-term scenario; has been upgraded but it is still bullish, after a little correction in wave 2.
First alternate short-term scenario; pullback for making the completion of Alt: c/y

If SPX exceeds 1541, a new scenario bursts on the charts, that reconsiders all the bullish move from November 16, 2012 with a new labels.

 

Have a great trading day...with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

 

 

SPX - Upward wave of minuette degree

In the last trading session the market could have already reached the bottom of wave [b] and started the impulse wave [c] , according to my preferred scenario that considers this upward move a zig-zag pattern of wave b/x .
The first alternate scenario, instead, is immediatly bearish but is invalidated if the index rises above 1525.

Have a great trading day... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD , USD/JPY - Update

EUR/USD

 

The Currency pair with the scenario most confused among those considered.

My preferred count is a correction phase like b/x wave of minor degree.

The recent Parliamentary Elections in my country, with the unlikely chance to form a stable Government, could trigger a speculative attack to Italy and subsequently to the Euro.

Italy's public debt is approaching 2,000 billion Euros and reached 127% of GDP, a real nuclear bomb with a potential domino effect worldwide, worse than Lehman crisis.

Is Italy bound to default?  As an Italian, I hope not but the risk is always very high and now that Italians in the last election were not very wise, the only one who can stop it is Mr. Mario Draghi, president of ECB, at least for love of country !

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EUR/GBP

 

According to forecast, there was the completion of wave 3 of  3 ; Tuesday, wave 4 is started; it's unlikely a retracement below 85.

 

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EUR/JPY

The expected wave 4 of minor degree is in progress;
near a completion of the first wave a/w .

 

 

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AUD/USD

The multi-month wave [4] of primary degree is ending with a "throw-under" beyond a triangle pattern, so we could be close to a bottom reversal.

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GBP/USD

January 2, 2013 has completed the multi-year triangle wave [B] and started the downward wave [C] of primary degree, we might still be in the minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (1) .

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USD/JPY

After a crazy run the market could have ended the intermediate wave (3) and could be in the early stage of a multi-week correction in wave (4)

In the FOREX page you could see the long-term scenario on weekly charts and the previous short-term outlook on daily charts.

Have a great weekend ;-)

ElwaveSurfer


PS:
Some blog's readers reported me that this post appeared a few hours ago as a blank page. 

I can not explain what might have happened because, at this time of publishing, the post appears me as "draft" !

All that remains unexplained ... however I apologize to my readers :-/ ...

 

 

SPX - The correction continues

My first two scenarios remain neutral / bearish in the short-term.

Preferred scenario; wave b/x is in progress like a zig-zag pattern, and after the completion of the impulse wave [a] , was started wave [b] .
First alternate scenario; the last upward wave was not an impulse but a Alt:[a]-[b]-[c] (even if the Alt:[c] is disproportionate in relation to the wave Alt:[a] :-/ ) that completes wave Alt:b/x , so the downtrend of minute degree is already resumed.

 

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Rebound too strong

Preferred scenario falters;

the rebound was very strong, has exceeded all Fibonacci's retracements, and seems to have impulsive structure; the market could have completed the wave [a] of [a]-[b]-[c] zig-zag pattern, now downward wave [b] then final rise to end wave b/x with terminal target beyond the previous top.
The previous alternative scenario has lost consistency.

 

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer