SPX - Exhausting rise

Still a contrasted session.
This difficulty in rising can be an exhaustion signal or a reload signal for the final upward move.
Preferred count: after waves 1-2 / (i) - (ii) the market rises with wave (iii) of 3

Alternate count: market is completing a diagonal triangle in wave Alt:[5] that involves a downward wave of minute degree.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Up with little strength

SPX has broken upward with little conviction.

Preferred count: after waves 1-2 / (i) - (ii) the market rises with wave (iii) of 3

Alternate count: the completion of a diagonal triangle in a short wave [5] involves a downward wave of minute degree.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still bullish

Nothing happened , only an extension of the sideways move.
But now I think that wave 2 is over and the market could be ready for the upthrust, otherwise the index falls.
My preferred short-term view is that posted yesterday (SPX hourly chart): still bullish.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Ready for another upward wave

Although we are always in a high-risk area, SPX seems ready for another upward thrust.
New preferred scenario: the triangle wave [4] is finished, and started wave 1 of [5]
First alternate count: we are already in wave Alt:3 of [5]

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer 

SPX - Ready for a bullish breakout

Yesterday nothing happened; the index seems ready to continue the uptrend with a bullish breakout in the early stage of session, otherwise it falls down.
Preferred count (up): we are in wave 3 of [5] ;
Alternate count (sideways) : wave [4] is in progress like a triangle pattern.
2°Alternate count (down): wave 2°Alt:[5] is ending and so 2°Alt:c .

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Today three scenarios within twenty points

Preferred count (up): wave [4] , like expanded flat, is over; now we are in wave 1 of [5] ; today starts wave 2
1 Alternate count (down): wave Alt:[5] is ending and so Alt:c .
2 Alternate count (sideways) : wave [4] is in progress like a triangle pattern.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Critical point

Preferred count: wave [4] in progress; invalidated below 1498.

Alternate count: wave Alt: [5] is over, and so Alt:c

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The alternative scenario prevails

Friday, with a strong bullish move,  the old alternate count  has definitely surpassed the previous preferred count, that's was invalidated.
Now, the new main scenario always includes a wave y of minor degree in progress, but it takes the structure of an upward zig-zag a-b-c , where wave c is in wave [5] .

However, an issue deserves attention: this intermediate wave (z) in progress could not be a simple complex w-x-y but a double complex w-x-y-x-z , so the tops could be reached after a pullback in wave x .

 

Have a great trading day...with care!
 

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

 

Elliott wave analysis of NDX

NDX is the weakest of the U.S. stock market indexes (also due to the Apple's collapse), the others are very close to their tops (and RUT has already exceeded them).

Long-term view.
Preferred scenario:
NDX has not yet reached the top of this Cycle Bear Market rally (wave B) that could be in 3300-3400 area where there is a new Fibonacci price cluster.
First alternate scenario:
the top has occured September 21, 2012 at 2878, where these was the first Fibonacci price cluster.

Short-term view.
Preferred count: NDX is in wave [iii] of 1 of 5
First alternate count: we are in Alt:b/x of wave 4

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Possible top of minute degree in a Fibonacci time cluster.

The preferred scenario, after being weakened by the Wednesday's move, was denied from that of yesterday.

The new preferred scenario considers that occured,  on January 30,  the top of wave y , and now we are in the wave [a]/[w]  of the second wave x of a double zig-zag w-x-y-x-z  .
This count would be confirmed by an interesting Fibonacci time cluster at the top of the wave y (which unfortunately I have only seen today) between 100% (bottom wave x - bottom wave x) = red vertical line (dashed) and 261,8% (top wave w - bottom wave x) = white vertical  line (dashed).

Another confirmation is required, with the lack of new highs within a few days.

The new first alternate scenario: we are in Alt:[4] of Alt:c
Possible targets: in 1487-1486 area there is the first Fibonacci price cluster, the second is in 1481-1480 area.

The first alternate count could also end today close to 1492 (but this is a hypothesis with low probability).

However, the main trend remain bullish so, even if a top may have occured,  I don't open short position on stocks (may be in intraday ES trading).

Have a great trading day...with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer