SPX - On the Fibonacci's support

SPX finds support @ 38.2% Fibonacci's retracement, but the down move doesn't seem finished.

 

We should be in wave [c/y] of c/y or in wave Alt:c of Alt:[2] .

 

Now one of the biggest dangers of instability in the financial markets could be the political and economic situation of Italy, where there is the worst government crisis since 70 years, with the country close to being commissioner by EU.

 

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Always bearish implications

Congestion continues; for now the 38.2% Fibonacci support has held but it seems more likely a bearish breakout.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Bearish wave

We could be in the bearish wave [3] or Alt:c

SPX - Still in correction

Preferred count: wave [2] of c is in progress
First alternate count: we are in Alt:c of Alt:[1]

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Correction in progress

The first downward wave ( 1 or a ) seems to be ended or close to completion (@ 1690?).

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Downward move of minute or minuette degree in progress

After last week's illness (colic liver), I hope to resume the usual daily posts.

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The market seems to have reached a very short term top of minute or minuette degree.

Preferred scenario: after the top of b wave, a downward move has started; the b wave pattern could be an irregular or a running flat.
First alternate scenario: after the top of Alt:[1] of Alt:c , we are in the pullback of wave Alt:[2] .
 First target: 1690.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Top's test

The upthrust in the last post has occurred and required the updating of the preferred count.

Now the first two scenarios have the same likelihood (at least up to 1710 that is the next target).

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Minute reversal less likely

The market seems ready for another upthrust, so the Alternate bullish scenario increases its chances.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

SPX - Waiting for the top's reversal



Even if the market could be in a top's reversal [y] of b,

1°) the last rebound was stronger than expected,

2°) the pattern is not clear ,

3°) a confirmation is required,

so no short position.

 

Above 1692 the first alternate count (bullish: wave Alt:c of Alt:y ) prevails.

 

Have a great trading day...with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Topping or new scenario

The first target has been achieved; the next is 1692.
Above, the preferred count is wrong (a zig-zag pattern with wave b that retraces more than 78.6% is very unlikely).

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Rebound close to completion

Preferred count: close to a bearish reversal; we could be in wave c of [y] of b of b .
First alternate count (bullish): wave Alt:c of Alt:y

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - The rebound continues

the Preferred count remains the same: wave [y] of b minute of b minor; final target 1682-1685.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Alternate count of minute degree prevails

The alternate count prevails; we are already in wave b of b (wave [4] of previous first count would be out of proportion to wave [2])

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Nothing new

Insignificant session, except the coverage of the gap of 27 August (refer to the yesterday's remarks).

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - New alternate count

Yesterday's upward movement denied my expectations

Preferred scenario: we are still in wave c of [4] of a ; first target @ 1617

New alternate scenario: we are already in Alt:[a]/[w] of Alt:b ; first target @ 1669

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Bearish short-term scenarios

The last downward move could be started yesterday.

Preferred scenario: we are in wave 2 of [5] of a

Alternate scenario: we are in Alt:(2) of Alt:c of Alt:[y] of a .

First target @ 1.617

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The bearish pattern is not over.

The "Three" of last Thursday , which wasn't invalidated in the Friday's session, requires an update count.

Preferred scenario; the five impulsive pattern of wave a is not over, I'm waiting for a new bottom.

First alternate scenario: we are in a double zig-zag Alt:[w]-[x]-[y] and a new down move is starting.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer