SPX - Lack of confirmation

The rebound appears like a three wave patterns, and it still does not confirm the start of the upward wave b .

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Close to a bottom?

There is the possibility that the wave a of a zig-zag b wave is over on the double Fibonacci price cluster in the 1634 area, but could be useful to wait for a confirmation today.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Zig-zag in progress

Unfortunately my suspicions were founded, so the preferred scenario changes and becomes the previous alternative (and viceversa): we should be in wave [5] (that could also be in completion) of minute wave a of minor wave b like zig-zag pattern.

 

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The rebound is over?

Honestly the last intraday bullish wave looks more like a bounce of Alt:[4]  that an upward move of minute degree .
Today we have confirmation.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - the market will go up but perhaps not at once

Considering I do not think the last top is the CYCLE TOP, the first two scenarios are the following:

 

Preferred scenario; we are in upward wave c of y , the last impulsive wave of this Cycle; this count is invalidated below 1639.

 

First alternate scenario; the last top has been wave Alt:a of (y) ; now we are in wave Alt:(a) of Alt:b with target @ 1560.

 

My US stock portfolio is: QCOR, GMCR, FLT, SLM

 

Interesting leading names: LNKD, SFUN, NUS, WWWW, EGOV, OCN, EVR, DDD.

 

Have a great trading day... with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

 

 

 

BRIEF STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Unfortunately I am out of the office and I can not post charts but in the very short term downward move of minute degree doesn't seems completed and it appears like a five wave pattern (that clouds my Elliott wave counts).

Yesterday I bought FLT (great breakout) and now my U.S. stock portfolio is: GMCR, FLT, VRX, SLM

Other interesting leading stocks are: QCOR, ACT, FB, LNKD, DDD, TSLA.

I'm happy to see that today, in their Pre-Market Pulse, two market wizards like Kris Kacher and Gil Morales include almost all these stocks (except SLM and ACT) in their idea buy list.

 

A new charts update in the weekend.

 

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Bottoming?

Even if confirmation is required  the preferred count considers a bottom of minute degree (wave b), instead the first alternate a bottom of minuette degree ( Alt:[a] of b ).

The second alternate is still bearish.

Bought GMCR @ 83

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Ready for a rebound

Technically, at this point, a rebound is very likely but that it will be an upswing we cannot still say; the trend of minute degree is always down, so I don't try to take the bottom.

 

From my WATCH LIST posted yesterday, I remove HLF (due to the breakdown of support @ 63.40 with volume up, it's no longer an interesting swing trade) and I add FB.

 

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Perhaps the downward wave is finished...

.... or perhaps not; the breakdown of 50 day MA is worrisome :-/

The preferred and the first alternate count have the same odds;

wave b could be in completing with a downward zig-zag [a]-[b]-[c] or we are just in wave Alt:[a]

However, it is too early to open new long positions (it is already difficult to keep those in progress like VRX and SLM)

If and when a new upward move will start, I'm looking for the following leading stocks: 

ACT, LNKD, HLF, QCOR, FLT, GMCR, DDD, WWWW

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Indexes

Elliott Wave Analysis of DJIA, DAX, FTSE, FTSEMIB, SMI, NIKKEI.

For previous outlook and long term view on weekly charts,

see post of July 27, 2013

DJIA

Preferred count: wave 2 of c minor of (y) intermediate is ending.

First alternate scenario: Alt:5 of Alt:(c)

 

 

GERMAN DAX

Preferred scenario: wave a of wave (z)
the first alternate (1°Alt:) considers the top like the Cycle Top D .
the second alternate (2°Alt:) corresponds to the alternative and super bullish long-term scenario shown in weekly chart; we would be in Alt:(3) of Alt:[1] of Alt:I

 

 

UK FTSE 100

this is the only stock market where my preferred long-term Outlook is bearish (not very convinced, but bearish) but the last upward wave could also be an impulsive pattern.

First alternate; we are in the wave Alt:2 of Alt:(3) so the Top is still far.

 

SWISS SMI

Preferred scenario; still in uptrend of Primary degree; we should be in wave c of wave (4) intermediate;

The Alternate scenarios is more complex.

 

ITALIAN FTSEMIB

This is one of the weaker stock market in Eurozone but in the last month one of the most bullish.
Preferred scenario: we should be in wave a of intermediate wave (y) of upward wave [C]/[Y] of Primary degree (for daily updates on intraday charts see my Italian blog  http://ChartPatternsTraders.blogspot.it)

JAPAN NIKKEI

Preferred count:  we are in wave c of minor wave 4  of (c) intermediate;
Alternate count: we are in a new bearish wave of Primary degree.

 

 

Have a great weekend ;-) !

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Downward move still ongoing

The expected decline occurred but does not seem completed.

After three stop loss from -4% to -5% (DDD, BIIB, GMCR) yesterday I closed three positions in profit: KKD + 43%, LNKD + 15%, ACT + 6%; two positions are still open: VRX and SLM.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - two bearish scenarios

The market remains within a sideways congestion but I'm waiting for a further decrease.
The first two scenarios are both bearish:
> preferred count (slight decline): the second wave [x] of b is in completion with the upward wave c/y ;

> alternate count (fast decline): the wave Alt:[c] of b is already underway.

First target = 1672-1676 area; second target = 1655.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Always in congestion phase

In the upward wave [b]/[x] of wave b minute.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still in correction

Preferred scenario: corrective wave b minute of upward wave  y minor is still in progress.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - In correction mode

After the rebound, another downwave.

We should be close to the wave c of [a]/[w] of b minute.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Waiting for confirmations

It is not yet clear if the correction has begun (as I think), nor whether it will be sharp or sideways.

I'm waiting for confirmations.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The impulse wave seems complete

Yesterday I expressed a difficulty in counting, perhaps because wave [5] was finishing  as ending diagonal.

 

Preferred scenario: wave a of minute degree is over and downward wave b of y minor is underway, first target 1670-1675 area.

 

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - A hesitant fifth wave

The movement of the last few days does not seem impulsive, it has not the usual strength but I have not found a better counting.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still bullish

SPX seems to have strength to increase again, but the top of minute degree is likely this week.

Preferred scenario: wave 3 of [5] of a minute of y minor.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs

In the FOREX page you can see the  previous long-term scenarios
on weekly charts and short-term outlooks on daily charts .

-------------------------
 

USD/JPY

The super impulsive wave (3) is finished;

we shoud be in upward wave c minute of b minor of (4) intermediate of [1] Primary; the first target, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, has already be reached.

EUR/JPY

New main scenario; intermediate wave (1) has completed; now we are in wave (2) target 119, the previous wave 4 .

GBP/USD

After the rebound of wave 2 minor , we should be in the impulsive wave 3 of (1) of [C] .

 

 

EUR/GBP

After the completion of (b)/(x) we could be in the new upward wave (c)/(y) of [X] Primary.

 

EUR/USD

 

Always in a contrasted and unclear trend, with no interesting setup.
It's likely the completion of downward wave y of b/x .

 

AUD/USD

This is the currency pair where my preferred scenario was wrong (bullish rather than bearish).

The V/C wave of Cycle degree seems to be completed; we could be in a new Cycle bear market, with new downward intermediate wave (1)/(a) of [A]/[W] Primary close to completion.

 

 

Have a great weekend ;-)

ElwaveSurfer