SPX - Rebound until Fibonacci's retracement

The rebound continued until 0.618 Fibonacci's retracement of previous downward wave (labeled [a] )

Now is it finished?

If so, the preferred scenario (bearish) prevails, otherwise the alternative becomes the main (see last post).

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The rebound could be finished

Preferred scenario (bearish): wave [b] is ended, so begins downward wave [c] of minute wave y of minor wave x ; first target @ 1536.

Alternate scenario (bullish) : wave Alt:y is already finished; even if the bounce has broken 1598, this remains the first alternative.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Bounce without conviction

Little rebound.

 

Preferred count: we are in wave c of [b] ; when it will end, new downward move.

Alternate count: we are in a upwave of minute degree; for greater consideration of this scenario, is required at least the breakout @ 1598.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Rebound or sideways

First close below the 100-day MA from 6 months.

 

Even if the yesterday's bottom is equal to 100% Fibonacci's extension of wave w from wave x , the downward pattern doesn't seems completed.

 

Preferred count; it's likely a rebound or a sideways, that could be wave [b] of y .
Alternate count; wave Alt:y is over.

 

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Index

To summarize the fundamental situation, this is an excerpt from the article by Jason Ma on INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY of Monday, June 24 2013

Italy, Spain Yields Near Danger Levels On Fed Taper Talk

  Tracking Treasury Rate Spike

   Sovereign debt problem returns as negotiations stall on banking union

  

Fears of less Federal Reserve stimulus are pushing eurozone bond yields back up and threatening to reignite the debt crisis.

And central banks may not be willing or able to rein in yields either, putting the burden on elected officials to act.

 On Friday, yields for 10-year bonds from Spain and Italy hit the highest levels since early April, prompting the finance chiefs from both countries to downplay the rise as temporary.

 Reports that the International Monetary Fund could suspend Greek rescue payments added to the eurozone jitters. The IMF said there would be no financing problems as long as a progress review wraps up by late July.

.........

And with German elections in September, Chancellor Angela Merkel is unlikely to commit large sums of money to other countries.........

From the technical point of view, analyzing the stock markets with Elliott and Fibonacci patterns, we can see the following situations:

DJIA

The new preferred count (my old second alternate) considers this correction as minute wave y of b minor of (y) intermediate.

First alternate scenario: Alt:4 of Alt:(c)

GERMAN DAX :

the wave in progress could be a sideways such as a triangle or a three  a/w-b/x-c/y-d/x-e/z
the first alternate (1°Alt:) considers the top like the Cycle Top D .
the second alternate (2°Alt:) corresponds to the alternative long-term scenario shown in the weekly chart; we would be in Alt:(2) of Alt:I

LONDON FTSE 100

this is the stock market where my long-term Outlook has changed;
it could already have reached the Cycle Top D , with a Primary wave [C] = Fibonacci's extension 0.618 of wave [A] from [B]
First alternate; we are in irregular Alt:(2) so the Top is still far.

ZURICH SMI

Preferred scenario; still in uptrend of Primary degree; we are in wave a of wave (4) intermediate;

The Alternate scenarios is more complex.

ITALIAN FTSEMIB

This is one of the weaker stock market in Eurozone.
Preferred scenario: we are in wave y of intermediate wave (x) of upward wave [C]/[Y] of Primary degree.

TOKYO NIKKEI

Preferred count:  we are always in wave 4 minor of (c) intermediate;
Alternate count: we are in a new bearish wave of Primary degree.

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Confirmed the bearish main count

Hard sell-off on FED's exit strategy from monetary stimulus.
The market dropped , even more of my expectation, also on increased volume.

Both the top two scenarios are bearish.

Main count: we are in wave [a] of y of x minor.
First alternate: the Cycle top was reached a month ago.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The bearish scenario prevails

Wrong expectation.

Yesterday, on the Fed's announcement,  the alternate scenario posted 2 days ago prevails:
we have reached a top of minute degree, wave x of minor wave x , and now started the downward wave y .
The outlook is bearish.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

SPX - Still up in corrective mode

Updated count.
Even if the market has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci price retracement,  the bullish move does not seem finished, but now it is labeled as wave [y] of y (or of Alt:x ).

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - the new first Alternate count

SPX continues its sideways move, trapped between the resistance of the 20-day MA and the support of the 50-day MA; 

this is the key level of the new first Alternate count .

If the 50-day MA will be broken down, it becomes the main counting.

This scenario considers the possibility that the current downward movement is the Alt:x wave of minor degree; the final Top would be higher in terms of price and farther in terms of time.

However, until then, the preferred scenario is that shown below.

Waiting the FED's announcement, an interesting stock: SOHU

Have a great trading day ... with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Darkness pattern

The market does not show a convincing power to go up;
the feeling that the count is wrong increases, but I'm still looking for a credible alternative.

These are difficult times, and it is better to wait outside.

Have a great trading day... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Last call for the bounce

Yesterday was the bottom b/x ?
Even if wave (y) = wave (w) , I have many doubts...
I think that the alternate count (bearish) will prevail.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Immediate rebound or new bottom

SPX shows weakness;

on intraday basis, or the preferred count (bottom b/x of [a]/[w] of y) prevails today, or it will be replaced by the first alternate (Alt:[z] of Alt:x still in progress).

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Triangle pattern

It seems to be forming a triangle pattern.
Preferred count (bullish): close to wave c/y of [a]/[w]
Alternate count (bearish): a Neely's reversal triangle in Alt:(b) is ending, so a down move in Alt:(c) of Alt:ii/b will start.

Have a great trading day .. with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis of several Stock Market Index

 

My short-term outlook, for this week, is bullish.

DJIA
in the best of cases, wave 3 minute of c minor of (y) intermediate.

First alternate scenario: Alt:5 ;

Second alternate scenario: the top was wave Alt:a , so now we are in Alt:b minor wave; if this view prevails the correction will be larger in terms of time and/or price.

NASDAQ: wave [ii] is over; we should be in wave [iii] of 3 minute of 5 minor

  

GERMAN DAX : wave x minor of (z) intermediate is over?

  

LONDON FTSE 100: if wave 2 minor of (3) intermediate is not over, a new Cycle bear market could be started.

ZURICH SMI - wave a of wave (4) intermediate is finished and wave b has started.

TOKYO NIKKEI
Preferred count:  wave 4 minor of (c) intermediate;
Alternate count: we are in a new bearish wave of Primary degree.

SPX intraday update

Pullback, as expected.

Preferred count (bullish): we are in wave iii/c of [a]/[w] of y of z minor.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Rebound or new upward wave?

As described in yesterday's post, the market has had the reaction expected from 1595 to 1600.

Now the real questions are:

wave x is over so a new upward wave is started?

or this is simply a rebound from an oversold's situation , due to the touch of uptrendline / MA50d ?

The first hypothesis requires, at least, the breakout @ 1646.

Today important job's report.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Close to a bullish reaction

As expected from the preferred scenario, the downward move is continued even if it will become invalidated if this wave fall below 1595-1600 (and now, the first alternate count is the worst possibile).

 

I'm waiting for the end of the correction.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Complex correction

The intraday top labelled in the yesterday's post like wave 2 , was confirmed but has changed in wave x because the downward move of the last session it is more difficult that could be qualified as impulsive pattern.

So the new counts become:

Preferred (bearish): we are in wave y of [y]

Alternate (bullish): the correction is over and the uptrend resumes.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Contrasted scenarios

The upward end of the yesterday's session give precedence to alternative scenario but requires a recount and there is also the possibility that yesterday's low is the end of the correction.

 

Main count: we are in wave 2 of [c] of x ; the correction is still in progress.

First alternate count: the bottom @ 1623 is the end of wave Alt:[c] and of wave Alt:x , so the uptrend resumes.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer