SPX - Rebound too strong

Preferred scenario falters;

the rebound was very strong, has exceeded all Fibonacci's retracements, and seems to have impulsive structure; the market could have completed the wave [a] of [a]-[b]-[c] zig-zag pattern, now downward wave [b] then final rise to end wave b/x with terminal target beyond the previous top.
The previous alternative scenario has lost consistency.

 

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

SPX - Bounce in a bearish or sideways corrective pattern.

The market rebound was made according to the expectations outlined in the previous 15 minutes chart, that is:
(preferred count): after the bottom of wave a/w in the form of [w]-[x]-[y] , is started the rebound on the wave b/x which should develops as a three wave pattern;
the first alternative scenario has changed and considers the hypothesis that the first wave a/w of minute degree is not yet complete and that the market is developing the second Alt:[x] of a complex pattern.
For traders and investors who invest in stocks or ETF, I still don't see opportunities with low-risk for open long positions.

 

Have a great trading day...with care !!!

 

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Correction is confirmed

The break-down of 1495 confirms the prospected scenario a few days ago: Febraury 19 began a bearish corrective wave.
With the rebound to 78.6% Fibonacci's retracement, I discarded the idea that we were in a zig-zag pattern [a]-[b]-[c] , so in order of priority, the first two possibilities are:
> A three, single or double,  [w]-[x]-[y] + [x]-[z] (preferred count); in this case we could be in [y] wave, even if the downward acceleration of final session doesn't convince me;
> A bearish impulse wave [1]-[2]-[3]-[4]-[5] (first alternate count), that involves a deep correction (and even the hypothesis that February 19 is the top of the tops).
I stay outside.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Waiting for the confirmation of the bearish reversal

In the last trading session, SPX started a pullback that doesn't appears yet completed.
My preferred scenario considers a sideways correction in progress, although there is still no confirmation that February 19 is a bearish reversal; it would be the break-down of 1495 level.

The new main count derives from an increase of one degree of the waves; we could be in c/y wave of [b]/[x] , while the alternate count is bullish (Alt:3)

In this condition of uncertainty, I still prefer to stay out of the market.

 

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX, GOLD, CRUDE OIL

DAX

The Long-term Elliott Wave count (on weekly basis) considers, as preferred count, an imminent top of Cycle wave D, then a downward wave E that completes a Triangle wave [IV] of SuperCycle degree.

Short-term outlook

Preferred count: correction in minor wave x then final upward wave z ending intermediate wave (y) , primary wave [Y] and Cycle wave D by the second quarter 2013.

Alternate count: Wave E is finished in June 2012, now we are in a leading diagonal pattern which completes 1°Alt:(1) of the new bull market.

GOLD

New Long-term Elliott Wave count:
we are in Primary wave [C] of Cycle wave IV of SuperCycle wave [V] .

Short-term outlook.

The previous count is invalidated; my new main short-term scenario requires that GOLD is completing the intermediate wave (w) of primary wave [C] , then the pullback of wave (x) .

CRUDE OIL

The Long-term scenario is confirmed.

Preferred count: OIL is in downward intermediate wave (c) of primary [C] of Cycle wave A

Alternate count: OIL is in the mid stage of Alt:II of Cycle degree; Alt:[X] is near a completion, then upward move in wave Alt:[Y]

  

Short-term outlook.

Preferred scenario: bearish count; wave iii of 3 is started

Alternate scenario: final wave Alt:(e) of triangle wave Alt:[Y] , then the uptrend resumes.

Have a great weekend.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Correction in progress

the correction has found a first support on the 23.6% Fibonacci's retracement, but the downward pattern does not seem finished.
Preferred count (bearish): we are in the wave 2/b of [a] of a/w (early stage of a corrective pattern of minor degree);
First alternate count (bullish): the wave Alt:2 in finished and now starts the wave Alt:3 of Alt:[5] of Alt: c
Second alternate count (bearish), we are in wave 2°Alt:[b] of a/w

For other considerations and the hourly chart, referring to yesterday's post.

Have a great trading day...with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Possible top of minor degree

Yesterday's session changes the outlook and has strong bearish implications.
There is a high probability that the market has reached a top of minor degree even if the pattern that it would close the bullish wave is not clear, because it doesn't seems an ending diagonal, but for exclusion seems to me the most likely scenario (with more than one doubt...).
The confirmation of the beginning of a corrective phase would occur with the break-down of 1495, but the index could also enter into a sideways correction respecting this support.
Now, considering that my preferred scenario has been invalidated by the drop below 1514, it's necessary a recount.
The new preferred scenario considers a top of minute degree, and the beginning of a new wave x that, for the principle of alternation, should be a "sideways type correction".
In this market situation, the best strategy could be to close long positions and stand outside.

 

Have a great trading day... with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still bullish

The preferred bullish scenario has been confirmed; we should be in wave 3 of [5]
Alternate scenario: the previous one is invalidated, but it is always the anticipation of an ending diagonal in progress.

Have a great trading day...with care !!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Volatility will continue to rise

Also the last trading session was contrasted.
Preferred count: it is finished the wave 2 of [5] ;
Alternate count: the market has reached a top of minute degree (Alt: c)
Always great caution, we aren't too far from a Cycle top and the volatility is likely to increase.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave Analysis for major Currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD

 ----------

EUR/USD

Primary [B] wave like triangle pattern is in progress;

it is started the minor b/x corrective wave of intermediate (e) final wave.

----------

USD/JPY

As indicated in previous posts, we should be in the early stage

of a new SuperCycle bull market;

probably the intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [1]  is ended;

it's coming a correction phase.

----------

EUR/GBP

 intermediate wave (1) of primary wave [1] seems to be in progress

----------

EUR/JPY



the recent strength of the Euro combined with the devaluation of the Japanese Yen

desired by the new Prime Minister Abe has started a strong bull market;

this currency pairs should be yet in the intermediate wave (1) of the primary wave [1]

----------

AUD/USD

Inside a ending diagonal of Cycle degree,

the intermediate (e) wave of [4] in the form of triangle pattern is finishing;

we could soon see an upward thrust that indicates the beginning of wave [5]

Have a great weekend !

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Exhausting rise (part 2)

We are at the same point of the yestarday opening session, so I refer to the scenarios presented in the last post.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Exhausting rise

Still a contrasted session.
This difficulty in rising can be an exhaustion signal or a reload signal for the final upward move.
Preferred count: after waves 1-2 / (i) - (ii) the market rises with wave (iii) of 3

Alternate count: market is completing a diagonal triangle in wave Alt:[5] that involves a downward wave of minute degree.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

 

SPX - Up with little strength

SPX has broken upward with little conviction.

Preferred count: after waves 1-2 / (i) - (ii) the market rises with wave (iii) of 3

Alternate count: the completion of a diagonal triangle in a short wave [5] involves a downward wave of minute degree.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still bullish

Nothing happened , only an extension of the sideways move.
But now I think that wave 2 is over and the market could be ready for the upthrust, otherwise the index falls.
My preferred short-term view is that posted yesterday (SPX hourly chart): still bullish.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Ready for another upward wave

Although we are always in a high-risk area, SPX seems ready for another upward thrust.
New preferred scenario: the triangle wave [4] is finished, and started wave 1 of [5]
First alternate count: we are already in wave Alt:3 of [5]

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer 

SPX - Ready for a bullish breakout

Yesterday nothing happened; the index seems ready to continue the uptrend with a bullish breakout in the early stage of session, otherwise it falls down.
Preferred count (up): we are in wave 3 of [5] ;
Alternate count (sideways) : wave [4] is in progress like a triangle pattern.
2°Alternate count (down): wave 2°Alt:[5] is ending and so 2°Alt:c .

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Today three scenarios within twenty points

Preferred count (up): wave [4] , like expanded flat, is over; now we are in wave 1 of [5] ; today starts wave 2
1 Alternate count (down): wave Alt:[5] is ending and so Alt:c .
2 Alternate count (sideways) : wave [4] is in progress like a triangle pattern.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Critical point

Preferred count: wave [4] in progress; invalidated below 1498.

Alternate count: wave Alt: [5] is over, and so Alt:c

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The alternative scenario prevails

Friday, with a strong bullish move,  the old alternate count  has definitely surpassed the previous preferred count, that's was invalidated.
Now, the new main scenario always includes a wave y of minor degree in progress, but it takes the structure of an upward zig-zag a-b-c , where wave c is in wave [5] .

However, an issue deserves attention: this intermediate wave (z) in progress could not be a simple complex w-x-y but a double complex w-x-y-x-z , so the tops could be reached after a pullback in wave x .

 

Have a great trading day...with care!
 

ElwaveSurfer

 

 

 

Elliott wave analysis of NDX

NDX is the weakest of the U.S. stock market indexes (also due to the Apple's collapse), the others are very close to their tops (and RUT has already exceeded them).

Long-term view.
Preferred scenario:
NDX has not yet reached the top of this Cycle Bear Market rally (wave B) that could be in 3300-3400 area where there is a new Fibonacci price cluster.
First alternate scenario:
the top has occured September 21, 2012 at 2878, where these was the first Fibonacci price cluster.

Short-term view.
Preferred count: NDX is in wave [iii] of 1 of 5
First alternate count: we are in Alt:b/x of wave 4

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Possible top of minute degree in a Fibonacci time cluster.

The preferred scenario, after being weakened by the Wednesday's move, was denied from that of yesterday.

The new preferred scenario considers that occured,  on January 30,  the top of wave y , and now we are in the wave [a]/[w]  of the second wave x of a double zig-zag w-x-y-x-z  .
This count would be confirmed by an interesting Fibonacci time cluster at the top of the wave y (which unfortunately I have only seen today) between 100% (bottom wave x - bottom wave x) = red vertical line (dashed) and 261,8% (top wave w - bottom wave x) = white vertical  line (dashed).

Another confirmation is required, with the lack of new highs within a few days.

The new first alternate scenario: we are in Alt:[4] of Alt:c
Possible targets: in 1487-1486 area there is the first Fibonacci price cluster, the second is in 1481-1480 area.

The first alternate count could also end today close to 1492 (but this is a hypothesis with low probability).

However, the main trend remain bullish so, even if a top may have occured,  I don't open short position on stocks (may be in intraday ES trading).

Have a great trading day...with care!

 

ElwaveSurfer