SPX - Inside a bullish or sideways motion

BACK ON TRACK AGAIN !

Last week I won the public competition 

that I was preparing by three months (:-))
Now I'm CFO "indefinitely", without fear of losing my job at the end of 

the administrative office of the Mayor in the coming month of June, 

and this completely changes my family and professional perspectives.
So I can resume the posts that I had stopped to concentrate myself in the arduous study of six different academic disciplines in a row 

(finance, accounting, commercial law, administrative law, 

tax law, business organization);

 when one is fifty years old is not easy as twenty!

I apologize for my absence the last few weeks.... 

and welcome back to my market analysis with the Elliott Wave Principle ;-)

ElwaveSurfer

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The first two scenarios are the same of the last posts.

Preferred scenario:

wave [3] of  final wave c of c minor of (y) intermediate of [Y] Primary of B/X/D Cycle

First Alternate scenario:

wave  Alt:[b] of the second Alt:x of  Alt: y minor

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Doubtful pattern

The pattern is not clear; there is a lack of alternation between the wave 2 and the wave 4

Preferred scenario; SPX is in wave 4 of wave [1] of c minute.

First alternate scenario: SPX is in Alt:a/w of Alt:[x] of Alt:y

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Always in uptrend

The preferred bullish scenario  shown in the post of last Monday seems correct;
the market could be in wave 3 of [1] of c minute of c minor of (y) intermediate.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The alternate scenario prevails

SPX could be in wave [1] of c minute of c minor or in wave Alt: [x] of Alt:b .

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still in congestion phase

It's not like I expected.
Wave [4] is still in progress or this is wave Alt:b

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Crossroads

The expected upward acceleration delays so we arrive at a crucial point where the first two counts have the same chance.
Preferred scenario (bullish); the market is in the early stage of wave 3 of [5] of 1 or Alt:a
Alternate scenario (bearish); the market is in triangular wave Alt:[x] of Alt:b , first target 1714.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Now an upward acceleration is required

It's still not clear if wave [5] of 1 or Alt:a  is in progress.
For a true confirmation is required an upward acceleration.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Waiting the fifth wave

The last week has been focused on the dual written test of the public competition that I was preparing for months. Wednesday I have supported both, and now I'm waiting  for the results.

I took a long weekend in my cottage to retrieve the mental energy (stress was heavy) and the physical energy (the accused illness a fortnight ago).

This week, even if you return to work, I should be able to make at least three posts (if not every day).

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The preferred scenario is still in progress; the market could be in wave [5] of 1 of c minor.
The new alternate scenario : wave Alt:a of Alt:y .

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Temporary pullback

From a month the blog is not updated every day, as a rule, because I'm very busy at work and I'm

studying  for an important public competition.

 

On Sunday, after the late harvest in the micro- vineyard hillside home , I suffered a sudden illness and well-known by troubling symptoms : pain in the chest , neck and left arm , difficulty in breathing and shortness of breath , tachycardia and arrhythmia .My wife has loaded me into the Suv and transported to first decent hospital in the area (30 km); along the way I started to faint a couple of times and, frankly, I thought it was over.I was in the ER all night under observation, under constant scrutiny and analysis .Luckily it was not a heart attack.The grotesque thing ? During the visit, the doctor did not even medical history (such as familiarity, work, sedentary lifestyle, isolated or repeated incident ... ) and in the analysis that has ordered has not even entered the blood sugar , cholesterol and triglycerides (in any case I pay them in the ticket ... ) so he could not know , until I told him , that my father died on the second heart attack and that I'm in pre-diabetes !

The doctor discharged me 10 hours after saying that probably it was not a heart attack but did not make a diagnosis , perhaps fatigue ( I slept 4 hours at night in the last month ) and the stress of competition ( and up to there, I arrived too ... ).
It was not a good experience, I am now at rest for a week, the week in which I should give my best performance for the public competition on 30 October ...

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SPX has continued to rise according to the expected scenarios, and now seems to have reached the top of wave [3] and started the wave [4] of wave 1 of c .
The first alternate scenario is terryfing; the Cycle Top.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Close a top of minuette degree

The wave [1] is ending.
There is always a doubt that it is the first impulsive of wave 1 or of wave Alt:5 ...

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - New scenarios

Main scenario: wave [1] of 1 of c of (y) .
First alternate scenario (very dangerous): Alt:5 of Diagonal Alt:c of (y) ; the target is the intersection of the yellow up-line (1.740 until the end of October !).
Second alternate scenario: we are in the 2°Alt:d of a triangular 2°Alt:b

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The bottom occured, bullish scenarios

I wrote yesterday that the bottom was not far away, while it was probably that of the previous day on the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Now SPX could be in the impulsive wave [1] of 1 of  c minor or in the Alt [3] of Alt:c of Alt:y , so the two main scenarios are bullish.

 

There is the time to go long.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still down

Preferred scenario: wave x of [y] of y of b
but the market could not be too far from a bottom.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Ready for a drop

No rebound.
The market could be at the end of a triangular wave [x] , ready for another downmove.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Looking for a bottom

It seems that the rebound has failed.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Temporary rebound

The short term trend is still bearish but a rebound is likely with (maximum) target @ 1708.

Preferred scenario; wave y of upward wave [x] of y

First alternate scenario; Alt:x of Alt:[2] of Alt:c

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still down

Slight upgrade in the counting.
Considered that it is unlikely that the current bearish wave is an impulsive, the preferred count becomes: [y] wave of y minute of b minor in form of irregular pattern, while the first alternate scenario: Alt:y of Alt:[2] of Alt:c

First target 1669.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - On the Fibonacci's support

SPX finds support @ 38.2% Fibonacci's retracement, but the down move doesn't seem finished.

 

We should be in wave [c/y] of c/y or in wave Alt:c of Alt:[2] .

 

Now one of the biggest dangers of instability in the financial markets could be the political and economic situation of Italy, where there is the worst government crisis since 70 years, with the country close to being commissioner by EU.

 

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Always bearish implications

Congestion continues; for now the 38.2% Fibonacci support has held but it seems more likely a bearish breakout.

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Bearish wave

We could be in the bearish wave [3] or Alt:c

SPX - Still in correction

Preferred count: wave [2] of c is in progress
First alternate count: we are in Alt:c of Alt:[1]

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Correction in progress

The first downward wave ( 1 or a ) seems to be ended or close to completion (@ 1690?).

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Downward move of minute or minuette degree in progress

After last week's illness (colic liver), I hope to resume the usual daily posts.

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The market seems to have reached a very short term top of minute or minuette degree.

Preferred scenario: after the top of b wave, a downward move has started; the b wave pattern could be an irregular or a running flat.
First alternate scenario: after the top of Alt:[1] of Alt:c , we are in the pullback of wave Alt:[2] .
 First target: 1690.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Top's test

The upthrust in the last post has occurred and required the updating of the preferred count.

Now the first two scenarios have the same likelihood (at least up to 1710 that is the next target).

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Minute reversal less likely

The market seems ready for another upthrust, so the Alternate bullish scenario increases its chances.

Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer