SPX - A doubtful pattern

I'm surprised of today's session, not because of the strong start but rather for the triangle that seems to be building.
For Elliott, triangles are always continuation patterns, for Neely they may also be reversal patterns;
if my counts was valid, the wave [b]/[x] is over or is running close to 1424,  and should start the bearish wave [c]/[y] .
But now I get a lot of doubts.
And if, instead of the wave [a]/[w] was over the wave b / x?
At that point, the immediate trend would be bullish, like that of Minor degree.
Tomorrow I will observe the market with this doubt but if it breaks the congestion upwards, I try a long intraday position.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Rebound's completion, then the third downward wave

The market movement was in line with expectations;
the first wave of Minuette degree, [a] or [w] , is finished, and also the wave [b] or [x] is ending with a complex pattern a-b-c , which should follow the third downward wave in five wave sequence if [c] or in three wave sequence if [y] , with probable completion of the b wave (or Alt:2 )
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still upward after a break

The count begins to be difficult;
the first upward wave of  minute degree seems to be over, but it is not yet clear whether it is a corrective type [a]-[b]-[c] , labeled a/w (preferred count) or an impulsive type [1]-[2]-[3]-[4]-[5] , labeled Alt:1 (alternate count).
The market should now be in the middle of a corrective move (1st target @ 1390, 2nd target @ 1377), after which I'm waiting for a new bullish wave.
Have a great trading day...with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

Elliott Wave analysis of SPX , DAX , EUR/USD: the upward move is in progress

 SPX

This is one of those situations in which the preferred scenario of short and medium term (on hourly chart, bullish from pre-market November 19th) is correct while the very short-term preferred scenario (on 15 minutes chart, slightly bearish) is wrong.

Today I lost a good opportunity for a nice ES intraday trade on the long side, but the important thing is that the main trend remains bullish, because I'm focusing my trading strategy on buy setups to open long positions on leading stocks.
Yesterday a blog's reader asked me: why did you not trade on the long side in the opening session of November 19th when you predicted that 16th had been the end of correction?
Because that was just a hypothesis without confirmation, the trend was still bearish, and because I don't trade with a reversal approach, but on pullbacks and particularly on breakouts.
Now the uptrend resumes, even if is still weak, my preferred scenario of short and medium term remains bullish and I think that the market is in wave [3] of wave a or 1 , but this requires a confirmation from volume and FTD.

As alternate scenario I discarded the old one (because the Alt:4 rises above the bottom of Alt:1 and this is impossible in terms of Elliott wave in impulse patterns) and my new alternate count is an [a]-[b]-[c] , with [c] in progress, of a minute wave of x minor wave.

 

Yesterday I opened the first long (but small) position in stocks; I purchased MWIV (CANSLIM composite rating 97, interesting flat base pattern with bullish breakout even though volume could be better)

 

 

My Stock Watch List for the next week is in "US stocks" page.

 

 

DAX

Preferred scenario:
wave x is ended with a complex [w]-[x]-[y] ( [x] wave like an expanding triangle) and last upward wave y is in progress, to complete the  (b/x) wave, then starting a new intermediate bear market cycle.
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

 

EUR/USD

Preferred scenario:
EUR / USD has followed the preferred scenario posted 15 days ago, and started the third wave c
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - A pullback would be useful

The index is dancing on the 50% Fibonacci's retracement, and, in terms of volume, is visible the effect of  the short week.
Preferred scenario: the market is in wave b of an irregular Elliott wave pattern a-b-c of wave [2] ; I'm waiting for a downward c wave close to 1377 to 1372.
1° Alternate scenario; the wave of minuette degree is not wave [2] but wave [b] , so the underlying trend is yet bearish.
2° Alternate scenario; the market is already on the wave [3] , and is possible a retracement in wave 2.

Therefore, the common factor in all 3 scenarios is a pullback, but care must be taken because the market is in time zone of Follow Through Day.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The upward movement needs to take a break

Stocks end choppy session flat.
On the downside, "Bernanke warns Congress to avoid fiscal cliff,... to raise the federal debt limit to prevent the govenment from defaulting on Treasurys debt, but also... to reduce the federal debt on the long run to ensure economic growth and stability" (The Motley Fool); inaction is already affecting the economy.
On the upside, housing starts at 4-Year High.
SPX has touched the first strong resistance which is equal to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last bearish Elliott wave of minute degree (b or Alt:3)
Yesterday, the intraday pullback was too small, in time and price, to believe that wave [2] or [b] is completed, so I think that tomorrow can be another sideways or slightly bearish session; the market could take a break to rest and reflect.
It would be interesting, for trading purpose, if the index builds a flat base that forms the right shoulder of a potential  H&S pattern, but with "if" it is not possible to trade in a profitable manner;
it's better respect the old rule "trade what you see and not what you think", so I wait outside to see what the market really does.

Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Nice rebound or new uptrend?

Stocks rose sharply on upbeat housing data and hopes on fiscal cliff, but volume falls (Investors.com).
With this rise increases the odds for my preferred scenario described in yesterday's post; Friday, November 16th, might have finished the correction and started a new uptrend of intermediate degree, with wave [1] completed or nearing completion, but unfortunately lacks the confirmation of volume.
It is necessary a "Follow Through Day" but it may difficult to occur this week due to normally lighter-volume trading that surrounds the Thanksgiving holiday.
The new first alternate scenario involves that this is a wave [a] of wave Alt: 3 so the correction is not yet over.
I'm waiting for a good wave [2] pattern and I continue to seek the Leaders that are finding support and building sound bases during the downtrend, but this time the search is difficult, and this is not a good sign...
Meanwhile, cautious day-trading on ES.
Have a great trading day...with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Rebound in progress

The market is experiencing a rebound near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of intermediate wave (y).
At this point, or the market has reached a bottom of intermediate degree and begins a new uptrend (wave (z) or, as a first alternative scenario (Alt:) , is finished the wave 3
The second alternative scenario (2°Alt:, in the 15 minute chart) , for now with very low probability, is compatible with a market crash.
Now it is important to check the structure of the bounce....not think about catching a possible bottom!
It 's still early to open long positions, the trend remain bearish.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Intermarket analysis: GOLD and CRUDE OIL

GOLD

Preferred scenario;  from the previous post of November 3, intermediate wave (2) is over (with a minor zig-zag a-b-c and a very short wave c); now,  minute wave 2 of minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) is ending; I'm waiting for a bottom in 1700 area.
The count is invalidated in 1672.

 

 CRUDE OIL

Analysis is changed since the last post (November 3).
Crude Oil is struggling to get off, it seems to be a diagonal pattern, unless it accelerates downward within the next week.
Preferred scenario; wave 1 minute is ending, then bounce in wave 2; intermediate trend still bearish;
First alternate count: the decline started last March 1 is a minor zig-zag a-b-c and wave c is ending, this would mean that the intermediate wave (c) is over, and a new uptrend resumes.

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The downtrend is incomplete

The downtrend is not complete.
I wait at least the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, then it is necessary to observe the subsequent reaction to see if the bearish wave is finished or if it prevails the alternate count.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Downtrend continues

There is not much to add to yesterday's post; the downtrend continues, it is wave [5] of c/y or wave [5] or Alt[3] of  Alt: 3.
As usual, I don't seek the bottom, I expect the upswing.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still downward, but it could be the last wave

The market seems to have closed the wave [4] and started the [5].It's better to wait for the completion of the pattern (c/y in preferred count or Alt:3 ) and check the structure of the bounce before opening long positions.
Have a great trading day ... with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - New Elliott wave count

New preferred scenario on a daily basis (see "U.S. Index Long-term view" page);
it was my first alternate count, in which the top of the September 14th becomes (y) intermediate wave, so the corrective movement from that level is (x) wave of a double complex (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z).
There is not a big change in  substance, only the degree of the last corrective wave that is raised by one level.
New preferred count: November  9th began the wave [4] of wave c then the market reaches a new bottom close to 1360-1370, completing c wave and y.
1° Alternate count: the wave c is finished Friday in 1372 where there is this Fibonacci price projection: wave c = (0.618 * a) + a; a new uptrend resumes.
2° Alternate count: the downtrend is only half way, the bottom on Friday is only the wave (i) of  3 of [3] of iii  ( this scenario is invalid above 1403).
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

Intermarket Analysis DAX and EUR/USD

DAX

Preferred scenario:
congestion could be finished;
I'm waiting for a last upward wave y to completion (b/x) wave, then starting a new intermediate bear market cycle.
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

EUR/USD

Eur/Usd has reached a Fibonacci price and time cluster (in time, wave a = b; in price, wave b = 0.382 * a)
the third wave bullish begins?
(see weekly chart on October 27th post for my long-term view)

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - The downtrend accelerates

The bearish movement continues increasing its strength;
the market is probably in wave (iii) of 3 of [3] or [c]
I think the bottom is not so close.
The Elliott Wave is telling me that the trend is bearish, even Dan Zanger and Chris Kacher, two traders who follow, are also bearish for a couple of weeks, so it is useless and also dangerous open long positions on stocks, too risky to open short positions, better to stay outside and wait.
Instead it's possibile to do intraday SPX future trading, where I'm focusing my energy.
Have a great trading day ... with care!!!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Confirmed the bearish scenario

Obama wins and stocks plunge.
My preferred downtrend scenario accelerates and start the third wave bearish [c]/[3]
As reported in yesterday's post, the alternative scenario is that the current corrective wave is not a minor degree wave but an intermediate degree wave; a fall below 1370 would make this scenario the main.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Still bearish until breakout of 1435 resistance

Yesterday the strong pullback stopped near 1435, the level at which the first alternate count becomes the main scenario.
I'm considering a second alternate count  involving the formation of a sideways (three or triangle) in progress, which means that the corrective wave from the top is an intermediate degree wave (x) and not a minor wave degree (x).
However, as long as the market does not break 1435, the trend remains bearish.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - Close to a critical point.

My two scenarios are still both correct; it is clear that one is wrong, but now there is no evidence to say which.
Preferred count: yesterday wave 1 of [c] is finished, now buonce in wave 2 ;
1st Alternate count; yesterday wave [2] is ended, like an a-b-c zig-zag pattern with elongated c wave, and today continues the upward wave 1 of [3] .
In conclusion, my expectations for today are for an up move.
I think the Election will set the trend of short and medium term.
Have a great trading day...with care!

SPX - The last bearish wave has started

What I expected has occurred, with the full coincidence of my first 2 Elliott Wave counts.
According to my main scenario, the rebound is finished right on Fibonacci retracement of 50%, with an irregular a-b-c where wave c has a clear structure in 5 impulse wave, so Friday has started the last bearish wave [c].
My first alternative scenario considers the rebound like a bull wave [1] and now the market is in wave [2]  (this scenario is invalid under 1403)
Have a great trading day...with care!

Intermarket Analysis: GOLD and CRUDE OIL

GOLD

Preferred scenario (last post October 20th);
the c minor zig-zag wave of (2) intermediate wave is started.

CRUDE OIL

My Preferred Count of August 25th is confirmed;
the 3 minor impulse wave has accelerated downward.

Have a great weekend!

ElwaveSurfer

SPX - A nice rebound but not enough to declare the end of the downtrend

The rebound started on October 26 could be an irregular a-b-c with the fifth wave of c in completion to finish the [b] wave or, as alternate count, the wave [1] of the new uptrend.
Now it is important to observe the structure of this bounce, if it takes place as three Elliott wave pattern or as five Elliott wave pattern.
Yesterday several leaders (KORS, CTRX, RNF, COO) have shown a good momentum and the best (POL, ARMH, CVLT)  keep pushing to new highs.
Have a great trading day...with care!

SPX - No real reversal sign so the downtrend is confirmed

SPX continues its sideways trend.
the 1428-1430 area is an intraday resistance that is stronger.
For me it is not useful to spend time in this type of market, it is better to wait until it takes a new direction; the pattern remains very unclear even for intraday trading.
Given that I consider likely further imminent downside movement, I stay out and I seek leading stocks that are finding support and forming interesting flat base to open new long positions on the possible further uptrend, although the breakdown of the 200-day MA on the NASDAQ could modify my intermediate outlook from up to down and reverse my trading approach.
Have a great trading day...with care!

ElwaveSurfer